collins Archives - AM8 International

With 12 Books to my name and 11 of those that have specifically noted the ‘how’ behind developing a Top 10 tennis ranking alongside Grand Slam Championship wins to ‘how’ to win that maiden Slam to achieve replicated success, if there’s something remarkable to achieve across the tennis landscape there’s a very good chance I’ve researched it, investigated and compiled the data, put in the hard yards, used various analytical models developed over the past twenty years, and delivered on these outcomes.

You don’t get to be at the Top of the game as its leading scientist and authority behind these key metrics without putting in the work. Truth be told, the likes of Swiatek to Alcaraz and their respective ascension to the Top of the game was all noted by these predictive analytics. And whilst I’ve previously shared this, it’s an incredibly important reminder that what has been uncovered — this new wave of data and insights, really does deliver what no Academy and/or Club across the world really does — on repeat.

Sure, you’ve got Serena’s former coach and their Academy. You’ve got various ones here in Australia. Next you’ve got Ferrero to Henin and Clijsters, plus Nadal’s and there’s definitely a two dozen others across the landscape — then ten-fold. By all accounts, you primarily only hear about two or three of them essentially because these coaches are on the ATP tour (primarily) working with Top 10 players. That said, Serena’s former coach did not develop Rune from scratch nor Halep — they’d already peaked.

Ferrero and Alcaraz are a unique story. Same applies for Swiatek and even Jabeur to Rybakina and Sabalenka. That is to say, the WTA has done the hard work and these are not from “big name” Academy’s (at the time) — and that’s the point.

If anything, it’s about the journey and finding those who are willing to be with you on the way to the top. From inception — a new feature on AM8 International I’ve developed to help guide players and coaches, in cohesion, through to delivery-centric outcomes — that Top 10 tennis ranking and more, there’s really a lot more to it than meets the eye.

The funny thing is hundreds if not thousands of potential players are based at these Academy’s around the globe with some Clubs bigger than others. The irony here is that they’re not privy to this data nor have they repeated their results at scale. That’s the difference between them and AM8 International — I let the data do the talking. Which essentially means names from De Minaur to Ostenpenko — Top 10, Collins to Dimitrov who are having stellar seasons and one has already landed back inside the Top 10 with the other on their way, have been tracked in alignment with our data to indicate that these are by no means surprise results.

But promises are a funny thing. A romance of sorts between the dreamers to desires and bringing them to life. But can they really? Try not to fall into the trap unless they have PoW (Proof of Work) and your ranking continues to ascend alongside your performances. Granted, one can be great, but without the two you’re lopsided — you’re missing a key piece to the puzzle. And that’s okay given that 50% of the current Top 10 are missing these key metrics and are lagging so far this season.

But it starts at the foundations. The same applies for time off with injuries and how to mitigate these. But guess what? It comes down to your technical metrics and these technicalities if you may have been built and designed by yours truly — and are attributed to these ranking milestones and their respective achievements. If your coach is not privy to this ‘new’ wave of technical prowess, that Top 10 status is behind the eight ball. Alas, that’s why I designed the 8 Keys to ensure each and every player and coach has access to become the best in the world and join the next generation of play.

The catch? There is none, not really. It simply requires consistency and hard work. The commitment to learn the 7 Keys before the 8th Key runs your game home. And where’s home? Well in this context, comfortably inside that elusive 8% — inside the Top 10, opposed to the 2% that will regress each and every season (as a baseline).

If you’re not inside the Top 10 sure enough you have a long way to go. But that’s what The Long Game was built for to ensure you have a Pathway to follow without getting lost in all the jargon and over promises. For real, to bring dreams to life in contrast to letting them go due to injury and/or underperforming.

Oh, the best part? It’ll also save you ten-fold in the long run. Why? Quite simply I wanted to ensure AM8 International remained affordable and accessible for all which means irrespective of your socioeconomic background, there’s a PoI for you and a place you can go to for guidance and advice whilst keeping you up to speed with the latest insights behind progressing towards that Top 10 tennis ranking — ranked inside the WTA or ATP Top 20 or Top 10, or at the other end of the spectrum — developmental and/or a current high performance player, there are inroads to take (and tackle) step by step.

The best part? The epitome of the tennis world awaits and we’ve got the data to support it. But if anything, today’s lesson really is about caution — not everything you are told is always the truth. As in life, ulterior motives are a truth so if those dreams are as dear to you as my commitment to delivering on our promises, take a few minutes (or an hour, to be thorough) and sieve through AM8 International — then track back in a few week’s when our new upgrade becomes available. Trust me, you won’t be disappointed. If anything, you’ll be more informed and better understand the more intricate details that go on behind the scenes and where to get started — irrespective if you’re Top 500 and/or Top 50 on the WTA or ATP tour, we’ve got a place for you to ensure those dreams become a reality.

To learn more about our data, predictive analytics and how to optimise your own performance, head on over to AM8 International. To learn more about AM8 International check out our selection of Books and/or options to join Dr B’s Pack to gain exclusive access to the best in the world. Not quite ready? Head on over to Beyond Top 10 Tennis for free access to 80+ episodes directly from Dr Berge of what it really takes to win multiple Grand Slams to securing that Top 10 tennis ranking with new episodes each week. More? Catch up on our Tips over on TikTok, Twitter, Threads or Instagram for quick snippets to apply in your game, today.

Alcaraz won Indian Wells. Sinner won Miami. Medvedev showed up in the Finals and Semi-Finals respectively. Djokovic fell in the 3rd Round of Indian Wells and opted out of Miami. Sinner fell to Alcaraz in the semi-finals of Indian Wells whilst Alcaraz fell to Dimitrov in the Quarter-Finals of Miami. Dimitrov made the Finals in Miami and fell to Medvedev in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells. Zverev made the Semi-Finals in Miami and the Quarter-Finals at Indian Wells.

Swiatek won Indian Wells and fell in the Round of 16 at Miami. Sabalenka fell in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells and the 3rd Round in Miami. Gauff made the Semi-Finals in Indian Wells and fell in the Round of 16 at Miami. Sakkari made the Final at Indian Wells and fell in the Quarter-Finals to Rybakina in Miami. Pegula lost in the 2nd Round at Indian Wells and made the Quarter-Finals in Miami. Rybakina opted out of Indian Wells and made the Finals of Miami. Collins fell in the 2nd Round to Swiatek at Indian Wells before winning Miami.

Are you keeping pace? By simple deduction, the rankings are wrong.

The truth of the matter is that when we narrow our focus on the current crop of Top 10 players they simply are not holding their own on a consistent basis. These cyclical performances that afford pre-conditioned peak performance outcomes are off the mark for many. But these primary players offer a glimpse into these fluctuations — back to back performances and their subsequent results. A very simple snapshot of the Top 4 to 5 players on the ATP and WTA tours at this moment in time.

But there’s more than meets the eye. Recall the 8% and those susceptible to regressing — denoted by the 2%. And here, it’s a small window that affords a glimpse into these rulers that govern the best tennis players in the world.

And that’s important. It’s a snapshot of this period of the calendar year. After all, Sabalenka won the opening Grand Slam of the season and hasn’t been able to live up to the hype. Swiatek on the other hand has continued to outperform and gain further traction with her ranking. The Australian Open Finalist — Zheng, has yet to showcase the same level of play despite her Top 10 ranking. This is one of many snippets that show a current flaw in the rankings. Meanwhile, Collins is outside the Top 10 and almost inside the Top 20 after her Miami title and yet continues to outperform 50% of the Top 10.

Go figure. Numbers don’t lie. But also only tell half the truth.

Alcaraz has been backing it up with Top 2 to Top 8 performances or greater. Sinner is Top 2 and Top 4 respectively, or greater. Djokovic is out of the equation when considering these metrics. Medvedev is Top 2 and Top 4 but does’t receive as much hype as deserved. Zverev is Top 4 and Top 8 whilst Dimitrov is Top 2 and Top 16. And that’s the reality of the cutoff. Both Rudd and De Minaur are Top 16 and Top 16 — just scaling inside.

Swiatek is Top 2 and Top 16, or greater. Sabalenka is Top 16 and null (given that 16 is the marker here for inclusion if coupled with a greater performance). Gauff is Top 4 and Top 16. Sakkari is Top 2 and Top 8. Pegula is null and Top 8. Rybakina is null and Top 2. Collins is null and Top 2, or greater. Navarro is Top 8 and Top 16.

Therefore the ATP tour is led by Sinner who is followed by Medvedev, then Alcaraz, Zverev and Dimitrov before Rudd and De Minaur. That rounds out the Top 7 followed by Djokovic simply because he deserves inclusion. And remember, Sinner won the Australian Open and Medvedev was the Finalist. Both are living up to the hype.

The WTA tour is led by Sakkari followed by Swiatek. However, there is reason for slight caution here as Sakkari has only recently found her Top 10 form again whereby Swiatek has been a trailblazer ever since her early exit at the Australian Open. On this basis, there’s greater leverage to note Swiatek — alongside her current ranking, to be followed by Sakkari (although in reality, Sakkari would sit closer to 5). Gauff follows before Navarro if consistency is the name of the game. Rybakina, Collins, Pegula and Sabalenka follow. However, there is a significant level of ambiguity here as other players ranked outside the Top 10 did make the Round of 16 or greater but only the mentioned players are 1) inside the Top 10, or 2) made the Finals and/or 3) had Top 16 or greater results in back to back tournaments. It’s a tough bar but reasonable for someone with the caliber of a Top 10 player.

But why aren’t all Top 10 players included?

By deduction, Swiatek, Sakkari, Gauff and Navarro are the most consistent players across both events. In contrast, that’s 4 WTA players who have consistently been performing — 3 inside the WTA Top 10, whereby 7 have been consistently performing on the ATP tour with 5 inside the ATP Top 10 before and after these events, whereby Dimitrov is now ranked back inside the Top 10, De Minaur was and now has been pushed outside the Top 10.

On the WTA tour, Pegula (5), Jabeur (6), Zheng (8), Vondrousova (9) and Ostenpenko (10) round out the Top 10. With Rybakina’s Finalist result coupled with her performances so far this season, although she trails Swiatek, both of these players have a level of play that exceeds their fellow Top 10 on a consistent basis. Sakkari has the recent results but it’s a matter of consistency. Ostenpenko did have the results but has not performed the past two events to her new baseline (capacity). Pegula follows whilst Jabeur, Zheng and Vondrousova have not lived up to their respective rankings this season with the exception for Zheng with her Finalist result.

On the ATP tour, Sinner has earned his place as the new No. 2 whilst Djokovic undoubtedly holds onto the No. 1. Alcaraz is then firm at No. 3 and is closely followed by Medvedev. Both 2 and 3 will continue to be interchanged unless Medvedev claims another Grand Slam and/or Djokovic takes a hiatus for a few months. Zverev holds his place at No. 5. Rublev, Rune and Hurkacz round out the Top 10 and these players have not been living up to their ranking expectations over this snapshot — period in time (as in now, 2024 — primarily the month of March).

Interestingly, the ATP has a more consistent level of play in the Top 5 whereby the WTA holds true to its Top 4 with Sakkari still inside the Top 10. There are null newcomers to consider on the ATP with standout wins (per the set inclusion). In contrast, the WTA has Collins with the Miami title and Navarro with a greater level of consistency than >50% of the current Top 10 — again, over this snapshot.

The truth therefore is not entirely in the rankings.

But rankings take time and consistency. I’d argue then (along with the data) that if the Top 10 was placed on a performance scale with room for slight fluctuations and a Round of 16 result a prerequisite 75% of the time — or greater, for a Top 5 ranking, 50% of the time for a Top 10 ranking — as a minimum, we’d see something quite different. But, a few seasons ago this was the case for the true rankings and results. At this point in time, to see and understand the whole truth it has become a matter of deduction and not all Top 10 players are living up to these expectations.

It’s hard, but it’s truth. So much so, a player does not garner traction for inclusion in our data (extensively published) unless these Round of 16 results become a reality — at the Grand Slam level. It’s one thing to win significant tiles alike Indian Wells and Miami, but another to play at the same level or greater at a Grand Slam. But this is where it starts and yet if the Australian Open is anything to go by, the ATP tour has been living up to its key expectations whilst the WTA simply has not with the No. 1 — Swiatek, finding her feet again and surging, whilst Sakkari finds a new lease on her game — for how long we’ll soon find out.

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Tennis Rankings and How to stay on track towards the Top of the Game