Tag: Sakkari

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Top 10 [Tennis] Rankings Corrections and how the 2024 Wimbledon Championships tightened the Top 5 Players on both the WTA and ATP tours

Over the past near 21 days the unfolding of the 2024 Wimbledon Championships has taken place from the lead up to the aftermath and with equally polarising results and yet still those players that are compounded by the data and how the past season has continued to unfold has been cause for a much needed realignment. A cautionary tale here is in respect to being mindful of the past season — 12 months until now, as if we only consider the current season and how the results have unfolded, then there’s a significant gap between the anticipated and what has more recently unfolded.

The beginning of the Championships noted the respective seedings take place on the Women’s and Men’s sides of the draw, as is typical, but what’s interesting here is in fact how the pending reshuffle of the rankings on both the WTA and ATP tours has been widely discussed on Beyond Top 10 Tennis this season with 50% of current Top 10 players not correlating with their ranking. In other words, their results do not align with those of a player ranked inside the Top 10. Most importantly, this is across both the WTA and ATP tours. What’s even more interesting, is that the ATP tour rankings started to correct themselves roughly 2-3 months ago as the clay-court season really triggered some key players to amp up their game and get back in action. The same can’t be said for the WTA tour which has now only corrected itself but there is still a margin of error for those who remain not in alignment with a Top 10 ranking.

To better clarify these rankings, it’s important to showcase how the 2024 Wimbledon Championships unveiled and impacted those inside the Top 10. On the WTA tour, there were only 9 active seeds due to Sabalenka withdrawing after the draw had been announced. Of these 9 seeds, only 3 made the Round of 16 or further — Gauff, Rybakina and Paolini. Importantly, these 3 players have remained inside the 8% across the past 2-3 seasons. Despite. Swiatek falling in the 3rd Round, as the reigning French Open Champion, Swiatek’s results this season have equally been in this category and Sabalenka closely follows, however, not too close. The updated WTA rankings post Wimbledon does in fact afford a better depiction of the Top 5 and resonated with the data. Noteworthy, players ranked inside the Top 10 but outside the Top 5 do not all align with these metrics. Whilst Krejcikova is the newly crowned Wimbledon Champion, she is deserving of her place inside the Top 10. However, if her results do not follow across the hard-court season she is more suceptible to regress. Either way, Krejcikova is a part of the 2% vulnerable to regressing outside the Top 10.

The other player inside the Top 10 and suceptible of regressing would be Sakkari given her results this season do in fact align with a Top 10 ranking — albeit not at the Grand Slam level, but she has a level of consistency ahead of other players inside this range. Collins is now more firmly inside the Top 10 and she was prior to Roland Garros before slightly being pushed out, but Collins’ performance does in fact correlate with a Top 10 ranking this season. Not quite Top 5, but Top 10 does resonate with her level of play. That leaves Pegula and Zheng.

Unfortunately, whilst Pegula has had some time off this season, her results simply do not correlate with a Top 10 ranking and haven’t all season with the exception to her maiden grass-court title prior to Wimbledon. Sure, Zheng was a Finalist at the 2024 Australian Open but her results have continued to underperform since this peak performance. Two players who have in fact been tracking this season are Ostapenko and Kasatkina. Both of these players have been performing better than those who are not correlating with their current ranking. That said, Ostapenko has been inside the Top 10 this season and does deserve to become a barrier breaker again. That leaves 1 place up for grabs for players who do in fact correlate with that Top 10 ranking and can be placed inside the 8% in contrast to the aforementioned 2%. And who would that be? That’s the elusive question to unfold for the rest of the season, but there are two primary players who are tracking with similar if not greater consistency than Kasatkina — Keys, a former barrier breaker for a number of seasons, and Navarro, a standout player so far this season along with a handful of players who continue to find that new baseline. Not quite as consistent as Paolini, but has surpassed the likes of Kostyuk and Kalinskaya. Whilst Samsonova is closing in on the Top 10, both Keys and Navarro have the greater potential and as far as the data is concerned and clear indicators of a player’s capacity to correlate with a Top 10 ranking — these are clear signs.

As such, the WTA tour still has a slight correction to unfold and the current Top 10 rankings post Wimbledon, whilst improved, does not fully align with current player performances, baselines and/or key metrics.

When it comes to the ATP tour the correction started to take place at the beginning of the 2024 season when the likes of Tsitsipas, Fritz and Rune were pushed out of the Top 10 and De Minaur, Dimitrov and Ruud became barrier breakers. Whilst Dimitrov and Ruud have both been inside this key ranking range previously, it was De Minaur who remains the sole newcomer this season. Interestingly, both Tsitsipas and Fritz have briefly progressed back inside the Top 10 this season but neither have been able to maintain their place and as such were clearly denoted inside the 2%. Those inside this key marker now are Dimitrov and Ruud despite their more successful clay-court season and Dimitrov continuing to maintain his peak baseline. The only player at this stage inside the Top 10 who does not correlate with this key range is Rublev and due to his on-court behaviour of late, he undoubtedly deserves a suspension in some way, shape or form to ensure physical self-harm is not accepted nor tolerated.

Noteworthy, when considering recent player performances it is in fact Fritz who has been finding his feet once again. It is equally important to note that Fritz has a peak baseline that fluctuates and is cyclical whereby he peaks and then there’s a drop off in his level of play before he peaks again. Fortunately for Fritz, this new cycle started just prior to Wimbledon before falling short to Musetti. Either way, the results speak for themselves and a true ranking correction on the ATP tour will include Fritz with Paul the second ‘new’ barrier breaker potentially this season. As far as the Top 5 are concerned, alike the WTA tour these are true depictions of current levels of play. The same can be said for the 8% if Fritz replaced Rublev. Interestingly, if Fritz is factored into the equation and due to his cyclical baseline, he would then be placed inside the 2% and Ruud would be pushed then into the 8%.


What’s even more interesting and why the correction of the ATP rankings remains true — prior to Wimbledon, in contrast to the WTA rankings, is that where the WTA had 3 of their Top 9 inside the Round of 16 — make that 4 if factoring the Top 10 seeds (i.e. Collins seeded 11 with Sabalenka’s 3rd Seed void), 7 players progressed to the Round of 16 and of those 7 players, they all lost to a Top 10 player if Fritz is granted that Top 10 ranking. Of these players, 5 progressed to the  in contrast to the WTA tour and only 2 of these players Rybakina and Paolini, progressed beyond the Round of 16 to the semi-finals and finals respectively.

What’s perhaps even more interesting is that Sinner continues his No.1 reign despite succumbing in the quarterfinals. Alcaraz secured back-to-back Grand Slams and still remains as No. 3. What’s even more wild is that Djokovic who is yet to win a title all season, continues his hold on the No. 2 ranking, however, both Alcaraz and Djokovic defended thier points from the 2023 Championships. Rublev, Hurkacz and Ruud did not pass the 2nd Round at best and still they remain inside the Top 10. That’s even more questionable. Pegula and Zheng were the only players on the WTA tour to fall in these earlier rounds and why they’ve also been flagged as not correlating with a Top 10 ranking. And whilst Rublev has equally been noted as not correlating with a Top 10 ranking, both Hurkacz and Ruud have had reasonable form this season but that 2% on the ATP tour is in fact ‘wider’ than on the WTA tour. In other words, more players on the ATP tour are more suceptible to being displaced in contrast to the WTA tour. The irony here is that is was the opposite merely a few weeks ago before the correction stared to take place, and now there are more vulnerable players on the ATP tour as the WTA tour is now tightening its ranks.

But to be clear, this is only applicable if the aforementioned Top 10 comes to fruition to align with a players current level of play which also accounts for a handful of players on both the WTA and ATP tours being displaced — regressing outside the Top 10 and to be replaced by one or more of those that have been named.

For a greater breakdown of player results across the 2024 Wimbledon Championships you’ll need to hold off until next week. Whilst I was hoping to ‘cram’ that all into one post, it turns out there were a lot more intricate details to divulge and discuss around Top 10 rankings, how these rankings have interchanges so far this season and the role of corrections pre-French Open and post-Wimbledon have started to shed new light on those players who truly have been holding onto that 8% as well as those who reside inside the 2% and remain susceptible to levelling out. Of course, the 8% is directly correlated with the 8 Keys and the prerequisite to a Top 10 ranking remains in the 7 Keys. The same can be said for those who have their eyes on becoming a barrier breaker — for the first time or to cross the threshold once again.

To learn more about our data, predictive analytics and how to optimise your own performance, head on over to AM8 International. To learn more about AM8 International check out our selection of Books and/or options to join Dr B’s Pack to gain exclusive access to the best in the world. Not quite ready? Head on over to Beyond Top 10 Tennis for free access to 80+ episodes directly from Dr Berge of what it really takes to win multiple Grand Slams to securing that Top 10 tennis ranking with new episodes each week. More? Catch up on our Tips over on TikTok, Twitter, Threads or Instagram for quick snippets to apply in your game, today. 

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Special Edition: 2024 Wimbledon Championships Day 3 [TENNIS] Player Insights & Results

This is episode 102 of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Beyond Top 10 Tennis⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ as we come LIVE to you from ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AM8 International⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on Day 3 of the ⁠2024 Wimbledon Championships⁠ with all Women’s and Men’s Day 3 matches discussed. The bottom half of the Women’s draw plus the top half of the Men’s draw are in action on Day 3 with the initial 2nd Round Results shared with notable ⁠Top 10⁠ Insights. The Video for episode 102 is available on both Spotify & YouTube whilst remaining available wherever you enjoy listening. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Key ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Players on Day 3 include Grand Slam Champions Gauff, Raducanu, Andreescu, Sinner, Alcaraz, Medvedev & Wawrinka plus Paolini, Sakkari & Paul, whilst notable exits include Grand Slam Champions Osaka & Stephens plus Ruud. 

Tune in to Beyond Top 10 Tennis and jump to Episode #102 to learn more.

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How the 2024 French Open separated Top 10 Tennis Players and closed the Gap between Others plus lessons for the 2024 Olympics

As the red clay settles and the noise becomes that little bit quieter, the grass beckons for those who have had time for their losses to settle and tackle a new surface with renewed hope of a better performance. Yet the tide is still high for the Champions of the 2024 French Open as their new silverware finds a new place to call home. For whilst there are only two who left triumphant with these titles, there are many more who should indeed be proud of their accomplishments to performances that really should signal a highlight of their 2024 season.

The Champions are known and yet there were some surprises. Recall that anomalies do exist and this Roland Garros was no exception. Sure, there have been much greater anomalies but the ones this French Open were not as shocking as perhaps some may have had you believe. Andreeva had been progressing and if Grand Slam statistics were to be gauged, this was almost expected – a Round of 16 in contrast to a semi-final but then again, the nerves to the health of her opponents simply can’t be collated and they’re akin to environmental factors that happen to the best.

Of course, Sabalenka was favoured to progress to the Finals to have a third straight showdown against Swiatek and to really battle it out for their next respective Grand Slam title. But again, the data favoured Swiatek almost all season as Sabalenka’s performance only started to ‘track’ come Madrid and Rome. Swiatek on the other hand had started to track essentially after her earlier exit at the Australian Open. Sabalenka did progress further at the French in contrast to Swiatek at the Australian Open but what happened between is where it gets quite juicy.

Zheng was a first time Finalist at the start of the season and was somewhat of a surprise. Then again, she was coming off a maiden Quarter-Final at the US Open. Still, this was a rapid-fire climb and as anticipated by the data, Zheng’s performance has been lacklustre since this performance peak due to the data capturing key setbacks and essentially the downside of these rapid-fire results. In contrast, Paolini reached the Round of 16 of the Australian Open and continued to progress throughout the season – that is, until the French Open. With a ranking that continued to progress to a high of 13 and now a barrier breaker after her Finalist result, a Quarter-Final would have been anticipated by Paolini if her season had not been spurred with such impressive results. Nonetheless, this still remains an anomaly but not as much as Andreeva’s peak performance. 

And then there was Gauff who went under the radar all season long given that Swiatek to Collins were capturing the limelight. But what many forgot to note is that Gauff in fact consistently was showing up late in these events and at the Semi-Final stage quite frequently. It would not have been surprising if Gauff did in fact take out Swiatek but then again, Swiatek at Roland Garros has steadily become a formidable force.

Whilst there is so much more to discuss and dissect, these four players on the WTA tour represent key expectations per the data – the anticipated calibre of play of a Top 10 player at 50%, 25% the anomaly in Andreeva, and 25% the player who simply had been playing akin to the Top 10 throughout the season. 

Which brings us to a key point raised in the Top 10 on both the WTA and ATP tours – only 50% of players inside the Top 10 had been living up to their ranking expectation all season. Yes, it has been said time and time again that 50% of the current Top 10 were not performing at the level of a Top 10 player. As such, players ranked outside the Top 10 but inside the Top 20 had greater scope to become a barrier breaker this season. Zheng after her Finalist result — but her performance has not been aligned with a Top 10 baseline; Collins becoming a barrier breaker shortly before the French started with a Top 10 baseline and Ostapenko earlier this season became a barrier breaker after having a super start to the season before reaching a performance plateau and now is hovering outside the Top 10. Paolini then by all accounts was anticipated to become a barrier breaker this season, but perhaps not as soon as now. Either way, her performance and results this reason are better than 50% of the Top 10 prior to the French Open.

And that’s an important point to note – these insights are prior to the French Open and the new rankings released this week.

When it comes to the men there aren’t as many anomalies to note and/or discuss but rather the level of consistency of some of these Top 10 players that simply has fluctuated between the Australian Open to the commencement of the French Open that weakened the respective data to what was potentially to come. The Top 3 players – Djokovic, Sinner and Alcaraz all had question marks around their overall performance. Djokovic was without a title – the longest he’s been in quite some time at this stage of the season. Alcaraz had an ailment he was resting in the lead up and Sinner also had an ailment but wasn’t away for as much time. Out of these 3 players, Sinner was the player with the best results to date this season. And that’s the catch – this season, not last or the one before that. Sinner was favoured to claim his second Grand Slam and second this season if he was able to maintain his level of play. But then again, Alcaraz had been idling at his side and simply was able to capitalise with more rest under his belt.

Djokovic is in fact the anomaly this Grand Slam due to his withdrawal but also that he was able to reach the Quarter-Finals and back up some lengthy match wins with another. Some may say Zverev was the anomaly but I’ll disagree. Zverev has consistently been inside the Top 5 when Federer, Nadal and Djokovic were at their respective peaks and/or still Top 10 players respectively. Zverev was ahead of Tsitsipas and slightly behind Thiem. Then Tsitsipas peaked and Zverev fell behind, same with Medvedev then Rublev came along. But Zverev was always there. Sure, Hurkacz and Dimitrov have since come to the party, but Zverev has been showing up. Medvedev was anticipated to go further, but then again, De Minaur was projected to reach the Quarter-Final stage and only one could walk away with the win. Similar to Medvedev, Zverev just shows up and keeps his level of play in tact. Unfortunately, Alcaraz came along and crashed that limelight and then Sinner, too, with these two newcomers now leading the charge – 1 and 2 respectively post Roland Garros. But Zverev is still holding strong and arguably it really came down to the mentally stronger opponent and the player with that added bit of flair in their game which really handed Alcaraz his third Grand Slam – a huge accomplishment.

No, this wasn’t necessarily anticipated due to Alcaraz’s current season. But going off Grand Slam metrics over the past 24-36 months, this was by all accounts expected. The truth is in the data.

In respect to the ATP tour rankings, the Top 10 has strengthened and yet also, all players inside the Quarter-Finals were Top 10 players if assuming De Minaur was Top 10 (already this season, however was seeded 11 during the Open). This was not the same for the WTA tour with 3 external Top 10 players – Paolini, perhaps similar to De Minaur, but then also Gracheva and Andreeva. Indeed, the WTA had more earlier upsets than the ATP with the likes of Collins and Keys running on highs and falling early. On the men’s it was Rubelv – seeded 6, who fell earlier than anticipate whilst seeds 6, 7, 9 and 10 – Sakkari, Zheng, Ostapenko and Kasatkina fell prior to or at the third round stage like Rublev.

There’s a lot to dissect at the Grand Slam level but also results that were anticipated to those that weren’t and the anomalies and how they factor into the performance spectrum. A lot of this can be reviewed on Beyond Top 10 Tennis and Episodes 88 to 96 that were Special Editions exclusively for the 2024 French Open. 

But this isn’t the end of the clay season as Paris 2024 is just around the corner. It’s an incredible mix for the players – some with a second chance for redemption, others to add that Gold to their illustrious career, and others to cement their place in the history books at an early age. Whilst it’s too soon to share insights on who’s favoured to conquer and who’s not in the running to what the data really says, I’m going to keep quiet until after Wimbledon to better gauge how much time a player may have to prepare to how they’re tracking over this 6 to 8 week period to more finely tune the collective analysis and better explain why ‘this’ player is set, or why ‘another’ player is not primed for a podium finish. But then again, crazy things often happen at the Olympics and rarely do Top 10 players secure Gold, Silver and Bronze. And there’s an irony in that, too. One thing is for sure, and that is the Olympics favour the anomaly as the pressure really takes a hold of the favoured and often it becomes all too much whilst the underdog quietly makes their way through to land on the podium. But if you’ve also been following Beyond Top 10 Tennis and read my latest release “How to Develop a Top 10 Tennis Ranking” then you also know the key behind Olympic success and how the 2024 Wimbledon Champions are more likely to not be the defending Champions this season.

To learn more about our data, predictive analytics and how to optimise your own performance, head on over to AM8 International. To learn more about AM8 International check out our selection of Books and/or options to join Dr B’s Pack to gain exclusive access to the best in the world. Not quite ready? Head on over to Beyond Top 10 Tennis for free access to 80+ episodes directly from Dr Berge of what it really takes to win multiple Grand Slams to securing that Top 10 tennis ranking with new episodes each week. More? Catch up on our Tips over on TikTok, Twitter, Threads or Instagram for quick snippets to apply in your game, today.

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The Countdown towards Roland Garros 2024, Swiatek’s Mantle and Tennis Players in Contention

This week on Beyond Top 10 Tennis specific players inside the Top 10 on both the WTA and ATP tours were highlighted for various reasons with an emphasis placed on whether or not they were or were not in the running for the second Grand Slam of the season. With Swiatek’s success over the last couple of weeks, it is easy to forget how both Collins and Sakkari have been surging ahead in their own rights and how Sabalenka was with a Championship point to claim the title in Madrid. What Swiatek has been able to accomplish over the best part of the last 6 to 8 weeks plus is nothing shy of remarkable as her statistics continue to climb. This is a timely reminder, however, for each and every one of you that breakthrough’s do happen we do see these players come through at the French which means Swiatek’s next Slam is definitely under threat.

Nevertheless, Swiatek isn’t anything less favourite but Sabalenka has come incredibly close in the past fortnight despite Swiatek taking an even greater advantage in Rome. If anything, it is a timely reminder of how exciting the level and depth of play is on the WTA tour irrespective of the contradictions. Not since the likes of Serena v Venus, or Serena v Azarenka, or Serena succumbing to the level of play from Kerber, Halep to Osaka have we seen this level of play. This isn’t to say that this level has not existed, rather when Serena was at her peak these players were able to deliver on at least one or more occasions on the biggest stages in the world. 

Sure, we’ve had a handful of other players deliver over this time but no one has come close to the level of play that Serena brought to life, or for that fact, Federer, Nadal to even Djokovic still, that we have been privy to a player of not simply this level but also how the rivalries continue to keep coming.

Swiatek is not alone. But her statistics do not lie. Sabalenka is close and so is Gauff and Rybakina but Swiatek continues to lead the charge. Yet, it is the closeness of these matches and the continued depth of all four of these players, that relatively align, that are delivering that next level of play. And still, Swiatek stands tall. It’s easy to forget that Swiatek is only 22 and Gauff 20 with both Rybakina and Sabalenka slightly ahead — 24 and 26 respectively, still mere years apart yet not by much. But neither of these players had accomplished this level of success at this age. Gauff is still within reach. But that’s not what this is about.

Whether 22 or 32 it’s the fact of what the data runs home. From heightened performances at Indian Wells to Miami followed by Madrid to Rome, Swiatek is all in. Sakkari and Collins are in the mix. Rybakina has continued to show when her health has been in check. However, Sabalenka only started to deliver in Madrid whereas her previous peak level of play can be tracked back to her Australian Open Win. And that’s what counts — consistency in application.

By all means Swiatek did not start the season on a peak performance run. In all fairness, she did run into Collins in the earlier rounds and that, dare I say, took the wind out of Swiatek before she could think about a Round of 16 result — it just simply wasn’t to be. But since then, Swiatek has been sublime and the only player who comes close is Rybakina. And yet, due to Rybakina not being able to play consistent events due to some ill health, the data continues to point towards Swiatek who is now followed by Sabalenka after the results of the past fortnight — in time for the next Grand Slam of the season.

But don’t be fooled. Of course I’m all in for Swiatek to claim her 5th Grand Slam but on equal accounts when does Swiatek’s tank flip to empty? It’s a careful juggling act that Rybakina and Gauff may very well be favoured to advance and perhaps even Sabalenka. But if the right key patterns are in play then I’d dare say Swiatek may very well be as dangerous on the clay as historically Nadal has been for the best part of the last near 20 years. And that’s saying something.

It would be remiss nonetheless not to highlight the potential anomaly that has silently been tracking forwards. And when I say silently we’re considering players who have still been performing just not at Swiatek’s level. From here, there’s Svitolina to Sakkari and maybe Jabeur will come to the party but even her level of play this season is perhaps akin to Djokovic — simply not apparent. Then there’s Collins to Paolini and whilst Ostenpenko started the 2024 season strong there are simply more players outside the Top 10 than are inside the Top 10 of which have been steadily progressing this season. Now that’s also saying something.

Last but not least, both Osaka and Badosa have had solid wins of late to Shnaider with two titles now this season. There are lesser known players who have been tracking and let’s remember when both Ostenpenko to Krejcikova won their maiden Grand Slam title at the French, neither was expected nor on the radar. But I’ll tell you something right here and now, if there’s a player in the running and they surpass the Round of 16 as a benchmark, our predictive analytics will take them all the way to the Championship courtesy of the 8 Keys.

Which brings us to the ATP tour and the likelihood of Djokovic securing his 25th Grand Slam title. If his most recent results this season are to go by then the answer is quite clear cut — no. If we’re to go by Djokovic’s historical performance then we all know it’s a resounding yes. That said, this will be the first time in perhaps the last 10+ years that Djokovic will not be the hot favourite.

Both Sinner and Alcaraz were out of action the past week. Alcaraz has not been dlivering as consistently this season as Sinner. Then you have the likes of Tsitsipas, Rudd and Zverev who have been. Rublev to Medvedev somewhat, Dimitrov and Hurkacz, too. And that’s the Top 10 for you. Unlike the WTA tour, this French Open is almost up for grabs across this playing field with Sinner the primary player with the advantage. But then again, he’s had a little extra time off. Alcaraz may find that form again from his 2023 season that has allowed him to claim two Grand Slams at such a young age, and perhaps add the French to his collection — or Sinner will even the tally of Slams to match Alcaraz’s haul. It’s quite possible. But I’ll say it now, if Sinner and Alcaraz make the final it’ll have all the ingredients akin to a Nadal v Federer and it’ll be incredibly exciting as the new era is officially well underway.

Similarly, Swiatek v Sabalenka in the final — three times in a row, would be a classic. And these players are all here for it.

And then you have the potential upsets. Paul has been dangerous this season, even more so than Shelton. De Minaur may very well have it in him for a semi-final birth or more. Alex has the game akin to a Chang to Fererro and with that has the legs to simply keep running. Bublik is another player who has made inroads this season and is definitely primed for an additional upset or two of one or more of the Top 10. Whilst a quarter-final may be on the cards, the data doesn’t suggest any further. But there’s always an anomaly and a player who goes above and beyond — whether from an anticipated 1st Round exit through to the 3rd Round, or like this years Australian Open when a number of anomalies appeared in the quarter-finals on the WTA tour and two of these players are now at all time ranking peaks — Kostyuk and Paolini with correlating results unlike Zheng who hasn’t been able to deliver as robust per her Finalist result at the opening Slam of the season.

As for the ATP tour there isn’t so much the argument for this level of progression but there’s depth in the form of the aforementioned dark horses and these threats are real.

If one thing is for sure, I’ll be keeping a close eye on this year’s French Open with the data to lead the way for Paris 2024, Wimbledon to the US Open. But also, with Beyond Top 10 Tennis now officially a centrepiece across all four Grand Slams, this French Open will be the first live recount and I’m equally excited to share. Not simply from a numbers point of view but primarily because I’m witnessing in real-time a genuine unfolding of the current Top 10 to the next crop surging through with key markers underpinning core results and reaffirming over and over again how the 8 Keys remain an absolute. But secretly, I’m also curious to see the next player to achieve replicated success, the next barrier breaker to the next maiden Grand Slam Chamoion as our data is brought to life and continues to underscore these outcomes and who’s who in the running for these identifiers, accomplishments, to nothing short of remarkable feats.

To learn more about our data, predictive analytics and how to optimise your own performance, head on over to AM8 International. To learn more about AM8 International check out our selection of Books and/or options to join Dr B’s Pack to gain exclusive access to the best in the world. Not quite ready? Head on over to Beyond Top 10 Tennis for free access to 80+ episodes directly from Dr Berge of what it really takes to win multiple Grand Slams to securing that Top 10 tennis ranking with new episodes each week. More? Catch up on our Tips over on TikTok, Twitter, Threads or Instagram for quick snippets to apply in your game, today.

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How a Tennis Ranking is NOT the whole Truth of Top 10 Tennis Players

Alcaraz won Indian Wells. Sinner won Miami. Medvedev showed up in the Finals and Semi-Finals respectively. Djokovic fell in the 3rd Round of Indian Wells and opted out of Miami. Sinner fell to Alcaraz in the semi-finals of Indian Wells whilst Alcaraz fell to Dimitrov in the Quarter-Finals of Miami. Dimitrov made the Finals in Miami and fell to Medvedev in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells. Zverev made the Semi-Finals in Miami and the Quarter-Finals at Indian Wells.

Swiatek won Indian Wells and fell in the Round of 16 at Miami. Sabalenka fell in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells and the 3rd Round in Miami. Gauff made the Semi-Finals in Indian Wells and fell in the Round of 16 at Miami. Sakkari made the Final at Indian Wells and fell in the Quarter-Finals to Rybakina in Miami. Pegula lost in the 2nd Round at Indian Wells and made the Quarter-Finals in Miami. Rybakina opted out of Indian Wells and made the Finals of Miami. Collins fell in the 2nd Round to Swiatek at Indian Wells before winning Miami. 

Are you keeping pace? By simple deduction, the rankings are wrong.

The truth of the matter is that when we narrow our focus on the current crop of Top 10 players they simply are not holding their own on a consistent basis. These cyclical performances that afford pre-conditioned peak performance outcomes are off the mark for many. But these primary players offer a glimpse into these fluctuations — back to back performances and their subsequent results. A very simple snapshot of the Top 4 to 5 players on the ATP and WTA tours at this moment in time.

But there’s more than meets the eye. Recall the 8% and those susceptible to regressing — denoted by the 2%. And here, it’s a small window that affords a glimpse into these rulers that govern the best tennis players in the world.

And that’s important. It’s a snapshot of this period of the calendar year. After all, Sabalenka won the opening Grand Slam of the season and hasn’t been able to live up to the hype. Swiatek on the other hand has continued to outperform and gain further traction with her ranking. The Australian Open Finalist — Zheng, has yet to showcase the same level of play despite her Top 10 ranking. This is one of many snippets that show a current flaw in the rankings. Meanwhile, Collins is outside the Top 10 and almost inside the Top 20 after her Miami title and yet continues to outperform 50% of the Top 10. 

Go figure. Numbers don’t lie. But also only tell half the truth.

Alcaraz has been backing it up with Top 2 to Top 8 performances or greater. Sinner is Top 2 and Top 4 respectively, or greater. Djokovic is out of the equation when considering these metrics. Medvedev is Top 2 and Top 4 but does’t receive as much hype as deserved. Zverev is Top 4 and Top 8 whilst Dimitrov is Top 2 and Top 16. And that’s the reality of the cutoff. Both Rudd and De Minaur are Top 16 and Top 16 — just scaling inside.

Swiatek is Top 2 and Top 16, or greater. Sabalenka is Top 16 and null (given that 16 is the marker here for inclusion if coupled with a greater performance). Gauff is Top 4 and Top 16. Sakkari is Top 2 and Top 8. Pegula is null and Top 8. Rybakina is null and Top 2. Collins is null and Top 2, or greater. Navarro is Top 8 and Top 16.

Therefore the ATP tour is led by Sinner who is followed by Medvedev, then Alcaraz, Zverev and Dimitrov before Rudd and De Minaur. That rounds out the Top 7 followed by Djokovic simply because he deserves inclusion. And remember, Sinner won the Australian Open and Medvedev was the Finalist. Both are living up to the hype.

The WTA tour is led by Sakkari followed by Swiatek. However, there is reason for slight caution here as Sakkari has only recently found her Top 10 form again whereby Swiatek has been a trailblazer ever since her early exit at the Australian Open. On this basis, there’s greater leverage to note Swiatek — alongside her current ranking, to be followed by Sakkari (although in reality, Sakkari would sit closer to 5). Gauff follows before Navarro if consistency is the name of the game. Rybakina, Collins, Pegula and Sabalenka follow. However, there is a significant level of ambiguity here as other players ranked outside the Top 10 did make the Round of 16 or greater but only the mentioned players are 1) inside the Top 10, or 2) made the Finals and/or 3) had Top 16 or greater results in back to back tournaments. It’s a tough bar but reasonable for someone with the caliber of a Top 10 player.

But why aren’t all Top 10 players included?

By deduction, Swiatek, Sakkari, Gauff and Navarro are the most consistent players across both events. In contrast, that’s 4 WTA players who have consistently been performing — 3 inside the WTA Top 10, whereby 7 have been consistently performing on the ATP tour with 5 inside the ATP Top 10 before and after these events, whereby Dimitrov is now ranked back inside the Top 10, De Minaur was and now has been pushed outside the Top 10.

On the WTA tour, Pegula (5), Jabeur (6), Zheng (8), Vondrousova (9) and Ostenpenko (10) round out the Top 10. With Rybakina’s Finalist result coupled with her performances so far this season, although she trails Swiatek, both of these players have a level of play that exceeds their fellow Top 10 on a consistent basis. Sakkari has the recent results but it’s a matter of consistency. Ostenpenko did have the results but has not performed the past two events to her new baseline (capacity). Pegula follows whilst Jabeur, Zheng and Vondrousova have not lived up to their respective rankings this season with the exception for Zheng with her Finalist result.

On the ATP tour, Sinner has earned his place as the new No. 2 whilst Djokovic undoubtedly holds onto the No. 1. Alcaraz is then firm at No. 3 and is closely followed by Medvedev. Both 2 and 3 will continue to be interchanged unless Medvedev claims another Grand Slam and/or Djokovic takes a hiatus for a few months. Zverev holds his place at No. 5. Rublev, Rune and Hurkacz round out the Top 10 and these players have not been living up to their ranking expectations over this snapshot — period in time (as in now, 2024 — primarily the month of March).

Interestingly, the ATP has a more consistent level of play in the Top 5 whereby the WTA holds true to its Top 4 with Sakkari still inside the Top 10. There are null newcomers to consider on the ATP with standout wins (per the set inclusion). In contrast, the WTA has Collins with the Miami title and Navarro with a greater level of consistency than >50% of the current Top 10 — again, over this snapshot.

The truth therefore is not entirely in the rankings.

But rankings take time and consistency. I’d argue then (along with the data) that if the Top 10 was placed on a performance scale with room for slight fluctuations and a Round of 16 result a prerequisite 75% of the time — or greater, for a Top 5 ranking, 50% of the time for a Top 10 ranking — as a minimum, we’d see something quite different. But, a few seasons ago this was the case for the true rankings and results. At this point in time, to see and understand the whole truth it has become a matter of deduction and not all Top 10 players are living up to these expectations.

It’s hard, but it’s truth. So much so, a player does not garner traction for inclusion in our data (extensively published) unless these Round of 16 results become a reality — at the Grand Slam level. It’s one thing to win significant tiles alike Indian Wells and Miami, but another to play at the same level or greater at a Grand Slam. But this is where it starts and yet if the Australian Open is anything to go by, the ATP tour has been living up to its key expectations whilst the WTA simply has not with the No. 1 — Swiatek, finding her feet again and surging, whilst Sakkari finds a new lease on her game — for how long we’ll soon find out.

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