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Wimbledon 2026: 3rd Round Performance Anomalies, Round of 16 Lineup to Quarterfinal Predictive Analytics

Well, that was a little topsy-turvy! In most instances, players did progress as anticipated, while those who did not were either cautioned as a “maybe” (indicative of a ‘?’) and/or the pattern of the earlier round wasn’t carried forward (see the highlights). Alternatively, as was the case for select players on the ATP Tour, the upsets I had called did not prevail — i.e., Cobolli and Bubliklooked as though they could be upset due to Khachanov’s and Tiafoe’s recent form, respectively.

On the WTA Tour, however, all upsets were hinted toward and/or the prior rounds’ patterns continued to take effect. Although that’s not to say there were not significant upsets for the 3rd Round, resulting in major anomalies in the Round of 16.

WTA Tour Analysis & Predictions

Starting with the WTA Tour, for both Rybakina and Swiatek to bow out — both by seeded players nonetheless who were in fact in form leading into the Championships — is quite the shock. Should both players have snatched their respective first sets, of course, things would have arguably looked a little different. But both Mertens and Eala held their ground.

What’s interesting here is that Swiatek showed patterns alike her 1st Round but then found form in the 2nd Round. Rybakina, on the other hand, looked quite solid until Mertens simply proved to be too good and didn’t allow Rybakina a foothold into the match. Swiatek could have pushed it to three sets, but like I’ve discussed this season, a slight dip in focus allowed Eala to break twice before Swiatek looked to charge back. It was a little too late. Mertens, on the other hand, kept pushing and Rybakina wasn’t able to find that hold.

Then there’s Kostyuk. Yes, she’s found that baseline and solidified it. With Navarro’s recent form, including her win over Swiatek prior to Wimbledon, she really had a shot. But Kostyuk seemingly has recovered strong to keep her momentum from the clay over to the grass.

A slight surprise, albeit named, is how convincing Paolini was over Sakkari. Indeed, I’d love to see Paolini find the form that allowed her to be a Finalist two seasons ago; however, the data isn’t quite there. Yet. Krueger is the unseeded anomaly to burst into the Round of 16, and while it could be said Krejcikova is also an anomaly — both being the only two unseeded players left — she does have two Grand Slam singles titles to her name. Otherwise, the draw is as anticipated with an 81% turnover, with the entire top half of the draw progressing through seamlessly.

Round of 16 Projections

For the Round of 16, I’ve gone out on a limb. Literally. With two of the top three seeds out:

  • Osaka vs. Sabalenka: Given how well Osaka played in the first set over Kasatkina, she has a chance over Sabalenka (even if slight).
  • Krejcikova vs. Muchova: With Krejcikova’s game and Muchova being pushed slightly in the 3rd Round, I want to give Krejcikova a shot!
  • Pegula: She is flying completely under the radar and is perhaps the most underrated player this Championship. I will not be surprised should Pegula have a piece of silverware in her hands in a week’s time.
  • Jovic: She has been playing better than anticipated on the grass and has really solidified her Top 20 ranking as she closes in on the Top 10 — but not quite yet. It’ll definitely be a match to watch closely.
  • Bencic vs. Gauff: Despite Bencic’s tight win over Kalinskaya, she started strong. If she can do the same with Gauff, considering how Gauff is yet to play her best tennis this Wimbledon, Bencic has a solid shot. Look, the predictive analytics could fall miserably, but I’m being upfront!
  • Kostyuk vs. Krueger: For the bottom half of the draw, I’m leaning towards the in-form Kostyuk over Krueger.
  • Paolini vs. Eala: Given Paolini’s form was solid over Sakkari and Eala’s over Swiatek, I’m leaning towards Paolini should she keep that exact form!
  • Keys vs. Noskova: Then there’s Keys’ win over Anisimova as called. Yes, Noskova was pushed to three by Cirstea, which is why despite Noskova’s form — and it’ll be close — I’m leaning towards Keys. Noskova is also underrated this Championship, but so is Keys.
  • Bouzkova vs. Mertens: Yes, Mertens has been here before and has the game to frustrate players as she never relents. But Bouzkova has been on the radar this past season and her rise was/is predicted. Should she play the tennis that has allowed her to progress up the rankings this season, I think she has a solid chance over Mertens.

So, I’ve laid it out for quite a number of upsets for the Round of 16. That said, the depth of play is undeniable with 5 Grand Slam Champions in contention and 3 Grand Slam Finalists — that’s 50% of all players in the Round of 16. Plus, all but two players are seeded (88%) — one a qualifier (Krueger) and the other a former Champion (Krejcikova). The depth is undeniable — a stark contrast to the ATP Tour. Even with the upsets that took place, all players predicted to progress to the quarterfinals have made a quarterfinal at least once at the Grand Slam level previously!

2026_LS_drawDownload

ATP Tour Analysis & Predictions

Sinner looks to be finding the form that nearly eluded him in the 1st Round, while one of two qualifiers in Mochizuki upset Jodar, who was initially predicted to fall in the round prior. Then Hurkacz came through as expected, even though it’s viewed by some as an upset over Paul. Struff continued his form over Medvedev, who was also anticipated to fall earlier, which is why his form suggested he was looking like making the Round of 16. The secondary patterns, however, proved to be an oversight. Both Auger-Aliassime and Davidovich Fokina progressed as expected, but the other qualifier in Safiullin was too good for Fonseca and will now face Djokovic, who looks like he hasn’t even found his top level yet. A scary, albeit familiar metric.

On the bottom half of the draw, Cobolli prevailed over Khachanov despite his form suggesting otherwise, while the local wildcard Fery is the third anomaly with a win over Bergs, making his maiden Round of 16 at a Grand Slam!

Fritz got the win, but then Tiafoe, who is playing some of the best grass-court tennis of his career with his title leading into Wimbledon, fell to Bublik. Bublik could be incredibly dangerous given his stellar run up the rankings last year and quite literally blitzing form that was near unparalleled to any other player outside the Top 3. Both Lehecka and Zverev progressed as expected.

Due to three significant anomalies — two qualifiers (compared to the WTA Tour with just one) and a wildcard, plus the unseeded Struff — the 3rd Round turnover proved to be its weakest yet at 63%. This highlights the inconsistency across top players in their transition between the clay and the grass, but also how 10 players are seeded and 6 are unseeded. It is a big difference from the WTA Tour. That 63%, ironically (and interestingly), aligns perfectly with the predictive analytics! And how’s this — three players are Grand Slam Champions and two have been Grand Slam Finalists. That’s 31%, in stark contrast to the WTA Tour’s 50%, and contributes to why the turnover is lower on the ATP Tour.

Round of 16 Projections

For the Round of 16, I’ve called one surprising upset, but it’s really going to depend on the player’s level on the day and if they hold from where they were last Championships.

  • Lehecka vs. Zverev: That’s right, last season Lehecka was poised to become a barrier-breaker, then slightly regressed, but looks to be finding that form again that placed him on the radar. For that reason, I’m calling Lehecka over Zverev — a very big call that may easily be shut down by Zverev. But maybe not.
  • Fritz vs. Bublik: If Fritz holds his form from the last fortnight, he should win over Bublik. But “should” is a loaded word.
  • Dimitrov vs. Fery: That said, if Dimitrov recovers well enough after his five-set win over Berrettini, he’s favored over the wildcard Fery. This would be incredible for a player who was a set away from beating Sinner at the same stage in last year’s Championship. Boy, has he clawed his way back, and you have to love Dimitrov all the more for it.
  • De Minaur vs. Cobolli: Then there’s De Minaur, who’s been playing solid tennis despite a slight hiccup against Svajda. If De Minaur can find that next level and push Cobolli, he’s looking like he could go the furthest at a Grand Slam he’s ever done in his career.
  • Top Half Outlook: With three of the anomalies in the top half of the draw, the Round of 16 analytics are slightly more in tune with Sinner over Mochizuki and Hurkacz over Struff, while Auger-Aliassime should prevail over Davidovich Fokina and Djokovic over Safiullin.

The quarterfinals would mean all players predicted to progress have made the quarterfinals at least once before at a Grand Slam, and the depth of play would then draw parallels close to the WTA Tour, bringing both draws into a relative alignment.

2026_MS_drawDownload

Final Thoughts & Ethics

Alright, I’ve made some big calls. Some are supported by the data and some aren’t, but I won’t disclose which is which to keep the underlying ethics in place. Until the quarterfinals, I hope you’re gearing up for some upsets! In this 2026 Wimbledon, we may very well see new Grand Slam Champions and new Finalists. But on both sides of the draw across both Tours, there are still players who have won Grand Slams and been Finalists before, which means nothing’s guaranteed!

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2026 Wimbledon: First, Second Round Wimbledon Results Plus Third Round Analytics to Who’s in the Round of 16

All 1st and 2nd Round results are in with the corresponding predictive analytics so let’s dive in!

WTA Tour Analysis

The 1st Round Review

Starting with the WTA Tour the biggest upsets that were not anticipated in the 1st Round include: Svitolina, Chwalinska (up 5-2 in the second and was unable to close it out), Raducanu (late withdrawal) whilst S. Williams could be called an upset, however, per rankings it was Joint from the beginning. Of course when the analytics come to shape there’s a slight level of bias there from who I may like to win and typically this is disclosed and/or quite evident in the case of S. Williams!

All other exits in the 1st Round were not essentially ‘upsets’ but rather players who were tracking over the other by a slight margin whilst the other player found their level on the day. There’s not much to be done about that especially in the 1st Round when for many of these players it’s almost like an even playing field transitioning from the clay to grass without much time to prepare. It’s an interesting dynamic from this perspective as some players begin on an even playing field which is arguably not the case for the clay when they’ve had weeks of preparation or the hard court season. Some players either adjust quickly or others find time to get into their groove (so to speak) whilst lower ranked players may take advantage in that in-between time.

Also it’s worth noting players who didn’t break after the clay could also be suffering from poor periodisation which in Svitolina’s case, it could be argued she’s been playing at such a high level this season that eventually something was to give. I do not see this as a bad metric on her behalf, but something that was anticipated to happen at this stage in the season.

The analytics accounted for some players that looked to be playing well leading into the Championships but fell early. Former Top 10 players like Zheng, Andreescu and Haddad Maia, in form Potapova, Vekic, Tomljanovic, Boulter and Stearns, or players like Siegemund who’ve had a solid run on the grass previously but none of these players made it past the 1st Round — contributing towards the lower cumulative rate. Collectively, the 1st Round analytics scored 67%— much lower than I’d prefer but higher than the French Open at the same stage. Yes, there’s something in the water this season.

The 2nd Round Review

As far as the 2nd Round was concerned, most players per ranking progressed to the 3rd Round irrespective of the analytics suggesting the lower ranked players may have a chance. Parks for example was favoured over Sawangkaew but she held her form from her win over Chwalinska. Similarly, up and coming Bartunkova coming through, or the biggest upset of the 2nd Round would be 2024 Wimbledon Champion Krejcikova who’s unseeded, taking out Andreeva. Not that surprising when you look at their historical records but also could have very well been a Round of 16 match if Krejcikova’s ranking hadn’t regressed the last two seasons primarily due to injury.

Maria was given a chance to progress alike Siegemund with a solid grass court track record last season but Jovic was too good — on paper and per rankings, Jovic was the favourite. The biggest win that really almost wasn’t was Gauff and Sierra who was up 7-5 I recall in the third set tiebreak before Gauff clawed her way back. It’ll be interesting what form Gauff whips up in the next few rounds and if she can find her form.

Snigur kept her form when it was thought perhaps she’d drop off the level she played against Svitolina, meanwhile it was the opposite for Joint who wasn’t able to hold her level she played against S. Williams — although did in the first set, before Eala was given the opportunity to take control of the match. Overall, the 2nd Round achieved a 78% against the predictive analytics with more players maintaining their anticipated form.

What to Watch Out for in the 3rd Round?

Out of 32 seeds, 22 are left in the 3rd Round (69%) which almost corresponds with the 1st Round metrics. Alike the predictive analytics thus far, my 3rd Round players will follow the pattern — not all higher seeds are favoured. There will be at least one new Round of 16 player — Snigur or Krueger. All other 3rd Round encounters have at least one player who has made the Round of 16 at a Grand Slam previously and/or is anticipated to i.e. Bouzkova v Samsonova. A much tighter 3rd Round which should result in a relatively streamlined Round of 16.

  • Sabalenka and Ostapenko — how Sabalenka handles the match
  • Krejcikova — how is her recovery after taking out Andreeva
  • Can Jovic make her maiden Wimbledon Round of 16
  • Will Gauff be pushed again or hone her form
  • How will Navarro play against Kostyuk and will Kostyuk up the level she found on the clay
  • Paolini against Sakkari will be a test for the former finalist
  • Eala has a win against Swiatek but this match will tell us how both players are tracking — a danger match
  • Anisimova and Keys could go either way with Keys’ recent form more favoured
  • Noskova’s movement I’m keen to watch
  • Bouzkova for her maiden Round of 16 keeping in mind Samsonova was inside the Top 20 last season
  • And whether Mertens can challenge Rybakina.
2026_LS_drawDownload

ATP Tour Analysis

The 1st Round Review

Onto the ATP Tour and the biggest 1st Round upset has to be Shelton who was looking in form leading up to the Championships with a shot at a semifinal with how he was playing, then Ruud although this was anticipated with his match against Hurkacz, Rublev looked to be finding his game again this season so it was surprising to see his early exit, whilst Darderi, Cerundolo and Arnaldi have showed solid recent form so they were not anticipated to exit so early. Alike the WTA Tour, periodisation matters and players who are not conditioned to playing at the highest level at their new baseline (peak) are more likely to regress (fall early) if this isn’t managed accordingly. Unfortunately for these players, their recent form looks as though it wasn’t able to be maintained on the grass and an additional week of down time will serve them best.

Other players who were anticipated to progress include: Mpetshi Perricard who hasn’t been able to maintain the form that saw him rise up the rankings last season, Humbert although I do believe grass historically hasn’t been his favoured surface, and Michelson who has showed signs of a solid progression. Other players like Jodar to Medvedev and Davidovich Fokina were in fact considered to maybe not push through to the 2nd Round although on paper per their rankings, they should — and did. This is simply a pattern that oftentimes results in these outcomes of higher seeded players not maintaining their level when it has been slightly inconsistent during the season and/or is a newfound high (like Jodar). Collectively, the analytics were 64% for the 1st Round with a number of players who did in fact progress were ranked to progress irrespective of the given opportunities for select players.

The 2nd Round Review

Come the 2nd Round this was much tighter again alike the WTA Tour with no significant surprises. Whilst Mensik and Fils did fall this was anticipated. Mochizuki is the breakthrough player as a qualifier, Struff is a seasoned name, Fucsovics, Safiullin and Sonego have all progressed (from recollection) to the Round of 16 at a grand slam previously despite their current rankings whilst Svajda has been able to maintain his French Open form and transition it to the grass which is notable. Largely the 2nd Round played out as anticipated with those that did not progress an underlying explanation is relatively known. Overall, the 2nd Round results scored 81% per the predictive analytics, a tighter score than the French Open and with the WTA Tour sitting at 78% these are the benchmarks typically seen (or greater) as the Championships progress.

What to Watch Out for in the 3rd Round?

On the seed front, 17 remain out of 32 (53%) — much lower than the WTA Tour and adds weight as to why the initial analytics were off course. Unlike the WTA Tour, however, there aren’t as many ‘close encounters’ to watch for due to less seeds in action. Alike the WTA Tour there will be at least one big opening — Bergs and Fery (who was granted a wildcard) with one of these players primed to make their maiden Round of 16 at a grand slam. All other 3rd Round encounters have at least one player who has either made the Round of 16 previously and/or is anticipated to do so i.e. Fonseca and Jodar (as I’m unsure which or if both have yet to progress to this stage at a grand slam previously).

  • Will Jodar make his first Wimbledon Round of 16
  • How about Hurkacz against Paul with both players former Top 10 but Hurkacz has regressed further back in the rankings as he looks to make his way back (Hurkacz isn’t seeded but has a good shot against Paul)
  • What about Fonseca — big news that appears to be overlooked
  • And Dimitrov and Berrettini is another turn back the clock moment alike Berrettini’s 1st Round encounter with Wawrinka (a beauty)
  • All other 3rd Round encounters should go per the seeding other than Tiafoe given his recent form and if he can maintain that over Bublik
  • Quinn could cause an upset since there isn’t that much data yet to go by with Jodar
  • Djokovic and if Rinderknech can cause any hiccups
  • The same goes for how De Minaur handles Svajda
  • Cobolli’s form and whether Khachanov can get the edge
  • Whilst Fritz should have a smooth ride alike Zverev and Lehecka BUT players make it to the 3rd Round for a reason.
2026_MS_drawDownload

Closing Thoughts

Whilst nothing is set in stone, I’d like to think the predictive analytics should hold at 80% or higher, but we saw what happened during the French Open which was unprecedented and I’m not about to rule out a number of upsets at this stage when the last four to six weeks both Tours have seen them on full display.

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2026 Grass Court Season, 3 Weeks of Mayhem & Wimbledon 1st Round Analytics

Three weeks since the 2026 French Open Championships came to a close, and after six events each across both Tours between then and now, the 2026 Wimbledon Championships are officially here.

What’s important to note is that due to a lack of data — merely three events per Tour with not all Top 10 players competing, or those that did not garnering enough momentum to really highlight their form — a number of anomalies are to be expected this coming fortnight. That said, there is actually more consistency across the WTA Tour over the ATP Tour in respect to depth of play, and you’ll notice this in my initial 1st Round outcomes. Of course, by no means is it anticipated that all of these results will prevail, but there’s a healthy indication that around 80% will make it through to the 2nd Round.

More players on the WTA Tour have consistently been performing this season in contrast to the ATP Tour, so the level of momentum, be that small or greater, tracks these players accordingly. Where a question mark lands suggests a higher level of uncertainty; however, this does happen at times when not marked, so it has only been noted in select cases.

The 3-Week Grass Court Warm-Up Review

Before getting into the Wimbledon draws, there are three weeks of results to review to discuss what they mean for certain players.

WTA Tour Breakdown

HSBC Championships (500)

Kicking off the day after Roland Garros, it’s understandable that not many players who had a deep run would show up. Rybakina still decided to play alongside Anisimova as the top two seeds, with Mboko, Fernandez, Cirstea, and Jovic the remaining seeds.

Rybakina, Anisimova, and Jovic progressed to the quarterfinals; however, Jovic was the only seed to push through to the semis (with a win over Anisimova in three), alongside Raducanu, Vekic, and Boulter. Note that both Vekic and Boulter have recently regressed outside the Top 50, and at times I believe outside the Top 100 in recent months, but both historically have good form on grass.

Vekic, in particular, had a huge run at the Championships two or three seasons ago, making it all the way to the semifinals. Her regression since outside the Top 30 and then the Top 100 (albeit brief) before going all the way here — a win over Boulter in the first semifinal, while Raducanu got a solid win over Jovic, before Vekic claimed a straight-sets win over Raducanu — is a testament to her form. Both of these players are on the radar for perhaps a deeper than anticipated run at Wimbledon; however, Raducanu has noted a minor injury since, which leaves her form in question.

Libéma Open (250)

This event was headed by Alexandrova and Tauson. However, Krejcikova (seeded eighth) and Montgomery (ranked well outside the Top 100 at the time) made the final. Unfortunately, Krejcikova had to withdraw, and Montgomery claimed her maiden WTA title with a walkover. A little rough for both players. The former Wimbledon Champion will be a question mark for how far she can go this fortnight given her tough run with injuries ever since winning her second Grand Slam singles title.

Berlin (500)

Berlin had Sabalenka back in action and again Rybakina leading the charge. Shnaider was back, although she lost in the 1st Round. Pegula, Keys, Muchova, and Noskova were all noteworthy, while Tauson fell early. Gauff, Svitolina, Kalinskaya, and Vekic were all in action; however, Eala got a straight-sets win over Vekic in the 1st Round, and Kalinskaya had to retire against Svitolina, who was two games shy of her win.

In the Round of 16:

  • Keys had an impressive win over Muchova.
  • Badosa took out Gauff in three tight sets.
  • Eala claimed perhaps the second-biggest win of her career with a straight-sets win over Rybakina (recall her win over Swiatek last season).

Eala then got the win over Svitolina — impressive to say the least, with back-to-back Top 10 wins — while Noskova defeated Badosa, Pegula beat Keys in two tiebreaks (!), and Sabalenka overcame Bartunkova in three tight sets.

In the semifinals, Pegula took Sabalenka out in three with a bagel (6-0) in the third. Recall what happened at the French Open; we’ve now seen this happen to both Sabalenka and Swiatek this season. Interesting. In the other semifinal, Noskova defeated Eala in straight sets. As for the final, it was a close three-setter, and Noskova won the biggest title of her career over Pegula to push her into the Top 10! That’s exciting, as Noskova was well on the radar to join the Top 10. I do love when the data is right!

Nottingham (250)

Nottingham had some late withdrawals, leaving Fernandez and Navarro as the two highest seeds. However, Fernandez fell early alongside Kessler, Tjen, Sakkari, and Bejlek — all seeds.

Fast-forward to the semifinals: Bouzkova defeated Pliskova, while Navarro won against Golubic. The final went to three sets. While Navarro was seeded three and Bouzkova four, Navarro has been finding her form again after a health hiatus that caused a ranking regression outside the Top 20. Meanwhile, Bouzkova has been on the radar to enter the Top 20 this season with how she’s been performing for the best part of the last 12 months. It’s no surprise it was a close final and for Bouzkova to get the win. Again, I love it when the data plays out like this!

Bad Homburg (500)

The last “big” event prior to the Championships, and the first time Swiatek has played since the French Open, along with Andreeva — both top seeds. Eala fell in the 1st Round after her recent run, Boulter lost to Fernandez, while Shnaider fell to Tauson, and Noskova to Ruse.

The blockbuster Round of 16 saw Navarro against Swiatek, resulting in the biggest upset of the last few weeks with Navarro getting the win in three. Recall that Navarro was ranked inside the Top 10 around eighteen months ago and she has been finding her form, while Swiatek has slightly fallen off her peak for the best part of the last season. So, while not entirely shocking, it’s incredibly noteworthy given Swiatek is the defending Wimbledon Champion.

Pair that result with Alexandrova defeating the newly crowned Grand Slam Champion in Andreeva, and it highlights the tricky transition between the two surfaces that often causes problems for those who have played heavily on the clay before transitioning to their first match on the grass.

But not for all! Navarro, Ruse, Muchova, Tauson, Wang, Svitolina, Osaka, and Alexandrova all made the quarterfinals. Ruse, Muchova, Osaka, and Wang (via a walkover against Svitolina) made the semifinals, while Muchova and Osaka competed in the final! Muchova took the first set convincingly before Osaka unfortunately had to retire. A big congratulations to Muchova as she also edges back into the Top 10, while a number of players leave a question mark on their fitness due to an injury of some shape or form, leaving the data for Wimbledon a little uncertain.

Eastbourne (250)

The last event on the WTA Tour to discuss features Paolini and Keys as the top two seeds. Unfortunately, Paolini has not been having a good run this season, falling in the 1st Round. Meanwhile, Maria, Ostapenko, Marcinko, and Keys progressed to the semifinals, with Maria and Keys pushing through to the final. Note Maria’s excellent run on the grass in past seasons, so this is not surprising. Meanwhile, it’s great to see Keys back in form and taking the title in two tight sets. Congratulations to both!

ATP Tour Breakdown

Boss Open (250)

Shelton and Fritz were the top two seeds. Both players, plus Shimabukuro, Lehecka, Tiafoe, Mpetshi Perricard, Bublik, and Bellucci made the quarterfinals. From there, Shelton, Lehecka, Bublik, and Fritz — the top four seeds — progressed to the semifinals. Not often does it happen, but when it does, it’s always nice to see the two top seeds make the final! While Fritz would have been favored, it did go to three sets, but Shelton got the edge in the third. Well done to both!

Libéma Open (250)

This event featured Auger-Aliassime and De Minaur as the top two seeds. There were no big surprises until the quarterfinals when Majchrzak defeated Auger-Aliassime. He then went on to defeat Medvedev in the semifinals and De Minaur in three sets in the final! Now that is a remarkably solid run for Majchrzak.

HSBC Championships (500)

De Minaur and Lehecka were the top two seeds, with Paul, Cerundolo (F.), Rinderknech, Davidovich Fokina, and Mensik the remaining seeds. Lehecka fell to Hijikata in the Round of 16, De Minaur fell to Nakashima in the quarterfinals, and Paul defeated Davidovich Fokina also in the quarters.

Unexpectedly, Nakashima, Cerundolo, Paul, and Humbert were the semifinalists. However, both seeds — Cerundolo and Paul — progressed to the final! Two seasons ago, when Paul was at his peak and riding a Top 10 ranking, he would have been favored. Despite his recent rankings slip, he has been finding form by making the final at Queen’s! Cerundolo likewise has been finding form, but unlike Paul, he’s primarily been progressing to reach his peak this season. With a three-set win over Paul, both players will be of immense interest come Wimbledon.

Halle (500)

Halle saw Zverev back in action as the top seed and Auger-Aliassime as the second, with Cobolli, Medvedev, Rublev, Fritz, Shelton, and Bublik rounding out the top eight seeds.

Bublik and Rublev fell in the 1st Round (though Rublev did face Hurkacz), while Cobolli was knocked out by Tiafoe. The quarterfinals saw Zverev defeat Colignon, Fritz get revenge over Shelton in three close tiebreaks, Altmaier defeat Medvedev, and Tiafoe secure a big win over Auger-Aliassime.

In the semifinals, Fritz upset Zverev in three sets — which isn’t unexpected given how well Fritz can play on the grass— while Tiafoe got a straight-sets win over Altmaier. For the final, Fritz was favored, however, Tiafoe was the player to get the break in both sets to claim the biggest title of his career! Let’s see if Tiafoe can use that momentum this fortnight.

Mallorca (250)

Mallorca had Darderi and Davidovich Fokina as the two top seeds. Borges defeated Darderi in the quarterfinals, while Davidovich Fokina got the win over Dimitrov — no easy feat on the grass! Marozsan and Quinn were the remaining semifinalists, with Quinn beating Borges in straight sets and Marozsan pushing Davidovich Fokina to three. The second seed prevailed and went on to defeat Quinn in the final. With this kind of run from Davidovich Fokina, I’m still interested to see if he can take this form into Grand Slams and perhaps push towards the Round of 16 this Wimbledon, or if he’ll fall short.

Eastbourne (250)

Last on the ATP Tour is Eastbourne. Courtesy of late withdrawals, two Lucky Losers — Gill and Halys — took the places of the top seeds. Diallo upset Etcheverry in the Round of 16, while Draper scored back-to-back wins before he downed Diallo in the quarterfinals. Cerundolo (J.) was the lone seed to fall in the quarters, while Humbert was the only seed to progress to the semifinals, where he went on to take down Draper. In the other semifinal, Bergs defeated Samuel (a lucky loser with a big run), before Bergs claimed the title over Humbert. A big win for Bergs, and it’ll be interesting to see if this momentum stays with him for the first week of the Championships.

Live Rankings & Scenarios

With the official rankings yet to be updated (give it a few more hours), the live rankings indicate a close race at the top:

  • Sabalenka and Rybakina are separated by less than 1,000 points.
  • Swiatek and Pegula are separated by less than 600 points.
  • Andreeva and Anisimova are less than 200 points apart, sitting just ahead of Gauff (7) by under 400 points.

With both Swiatek and Anisimova having the most to lose this fortnight, Swiatek will remain inside the Top 10 even if she falls early, while Anisimova could bounce outside if there’s an early exit. That said, should both players progress toward the Round of 16, there’s a solid chance they’ll both remain inside the Top 10 quite comfortably.

Should Rybakina have a solid run and Sabalenka falls early, the No. 1 ranking could come up for grabs with Rybakina in the driver’s seat. Should Rybakina fall early, the Top 3 will remain intact if Swiatek defends her title. In the last season, when it comes to pressure, Swiatek hasn’t been handling it as well as she once used to, so I’m a little nervous for her. Pegula is a big underdog and could take the No. 3 spot should Swiatek fall and she progresses, while anything can happen if Andreeva or Gauff go all the way to take the No. 3 ranking. If anything, the depth of play on the WTA Tour is solid with multiple players potentially in line for their next and/or maiden Grand Slam.

The live rankings on the ATP Tour do not see Sinner being displaced anytime this season, while even if Zverev was to win Wimbledon, he still wouldn’t overtake Alcaraz. The Top 3 are essentially locked in place.

Shelton and Fritz perhaps have the best potential for a deep run, as Djokovic’s form remains unknown — though you can never say never. Lehecka and Mensik I’m inclined to watch to see if they can push further, and if Tiafoe can keep the momentum of the past week. There’s a distinct lack of consistency in results here among the wider Top 15–20, with only a few really showing true form leading up to the Championships. In contrast, more players on the WTA Tour have near-predetermined form that allows the analytics to take shape. That said, recall how the 2026 French Open presented the most anomalies I’d seen in some time, so whether it’ll be the same at Wimbledon remains unknown.

Mouth-Watering 1st Round Clashes

The biggest news perhaps to hit the Championships is the return of Serena Williams. Exciting is an understatement.And with Serena facing Joint in the 1st Round amidst Joint’s recent regression, Serena is poised to potentially win her first professional singles match in… how many years? And guess who’s on a collision course for the 3rd Round — none other than the defending Champion, Swiatek. Now that would be wild.

Swiatek arguably has the hardest section of the draw. Paolini is facing Montgomery, who qualified but won her first title a fortnight ago. Navarro has Badosa — tough. Sakkari will play Tauson. Swiatek plays Townsend — again, no easy feat if you recall Townsend’s US Open singles run. And then Rybakina plays Boisson, whom we haven’t really seen in action since her semifinal result at the 2025 French Open and whose ranking regressed outside the Top 100 after Roland Garros.

On the men’s side, Ruud will face Hurkacz, which will be tough given Ruud doesn’t have the best grass record. Medvedev plays Cilic, which could cause issues, and Davidovich Fokina plays Cerundolo (J.). But the biggest 1st Round clash is perhaps Wawrinka v. Berrettini, tied with Fritz v. Draper — a very tough 1st Round match for Fritz indeed. Sinner and Zverev have fairer draws and, unlike the WTA Tour, there’s no standout section at this stage that seems more heavily weighted than another. But that will most likely change at the end of the first week.

2026_LS_drawDownload
2026_MS_drawDownload

Looking Ahead

At this stage, I’ve decided to hold back on the predictive analytics and will wait until the 1st Round has concluded. You’ll see how I’ve penciled the names in so you can see what the data is suggesting. That said, keep in mind the 80% rule. With each Round, I’ll pencil in the names so you can follow along with me, if you choose, to see how pretty darn cool the data really can be (and is).

And on that note, I’ll leave you with what’s happened between the end of the French Open and the beginning of Wimbledon!

In the same three weeks that have passed, I’ve been anchored to my chair and I’ve kept on writing. And finished. Drumroll please…

The Top 10 Tennis Doctorate, Back to the Beginning is now available worldwide!

RRP The Top 10 Tennis Doctorate, Back to the Beginning
$389.00

Have you ever wondered what separates players from achieving a Top 10 tennis ranking? Or perhaps why their coaches fall short and why some players collect Grand Slam Championships whilst the majority rarely get within reach? All this and more has been answered over the last decade with a resounding catalogue of thirteen Books that have tirelessly built on the original source code. Twelve years later, the source code that has been kept under lock and key, now opens the floodgates for tennis players and coaches to reach new heights.

Be sure to read the blurb to learn more about it so I don’t hijack this article with even more exciting news! I’m thrilled to have it released. Recall on Beyond Top 10 Tennis why I chose (begrudgingly) to take a step back so I could finish this latest release and bring yet another book to you — to learn how to not only get to the Top 10, but this time, the whole blueprint. The source code.

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2026 French Open Champions and Beyond

Now this is where it gets exciting! What I love about the data is how enthralling it really can be.

Let’s start with the good news. Not only was there a 100% rate of accuracy despite the absolute shock from the 1st Round through to the semifinals, both Andreeva and Zverev prevailed as maiden Grand Slam Champions. As for the semifinals, that was a 25% and 50% churn respectively which ironically follows similar patterns of how the data really didn’t fare well this Roland Garros. It’s essential to put into view the role of the data and why this French Open the results were so skewed. First and foremost, players are human which means there’s always a margin of error due to the human condition. This is a really interesting dynamic that can never be accounted for should a player stumble from their current form. There were many breakthrough performances throughout the Championships with both Chwalinska and Cobolli reaching their maiden Grand Slam Final. Sure, Chwalinska’s odds were stacked highly against her but when you take the time to look at her game, it really wasn’t that surprising. When it comes to Cobolli, I think this is where the data didn’t lean heavily enough considering his recent climb (almost) into the Top 10 plus his trajectory. Cobolli was perhaps in peak perform coming into Roland Garros whilst Andreeva was finding her groove and climbing.

Recall in the later episodes of Beyond Top 10 Tennis when Andreeva was flagged to win her maiden Grand Slam this season. Yep, you read that right. Or heard it if you were listening to the episode. Similarly, I’d spoken (and written) about how Andreeva had to hold – to wait until it was her time to claim a Grand Slam similar to how Gauff had to wait. The best news here is that due to Andreeva’s ‘hold’ she’s now increasingly more likely to win another Grand Slam and remain inside the Top 10 (incase there were any doubts).

And this is the power of the data.

When it comes to Zverev, he was always predicted to reach the Finals with Alcaraz out and Sinner in the other half of the draw. Of course, with Sinner’s early exit Zverev did become the favourite. I don’t think anyone would have thought Zverev would be pushed to five by Cobolli, but then again, I’m sure many thought perhaps Zverev would choke and Cobolli would go all the way. We’ve all seen it happen! (Perhaps Zverev would hold the line, done in three?). He did however allow Cobolli back into the match which made it all the more harder for Zverev to inch closer to that Championship win. The fifth set, of course was what was expected.

Chwalinksa had the tournament of her life. With a ranking that will allow her direct entry into Grand Slams and higher tier tournaments, I’m going to be watching closely to see if she holds her newfound baseline.

When Raducanu made her US Open run as well as Fernandez, both were able to hold a Top 30 ranking for some time, but not the results expected of a Grand Slam Champion or Finalist. That said, Fernandez has faired quite well but has been unable to push further towards the Top 15, for example more robustly. Andreescu was a few seasons earlier and unfortunately injuries have plagued the Grand Slam Champion but importantly, soon after her peak performance she wasn’t able to hold onto her Top 10 ranking for more than two seasons which is a critical benchmark.

On a different take, Chwalinka had to face Mertens in the 2nd Round and did not face a seed until the semifinals (Shnaider) then the Final – Andreeva. Interestingly, Andreeva did not face a Top 10 opponent all tournament! Cobolli did face a Top 10 opponent for the first time in the semifinals (Auger-Aliassime) and then Zverev. Noteworthy, Zverev did not face a Top 10 opponent until the Finals (going off seeding)! This does not normally happen. Nope. But this does also highlight how abnormal the 2026 French Open Championships really were.

Now let’s take a closer look at the Round of 16 benchmark and what players were able to hold their level from the 2025 season through to the 2026 Championships. Keep in mind, irrespective of later results, the Round of 16 is a key performance indicator that should be met to align with a player’s fundamental baseline.

On the WTA Tour in 2025 the Round of 16 included: Rybakina, Swiatek, Paolini, Svitolina, Samsonova, Zheng, Keys, Baptiste, Alexandrova, Gauff, Sabalenka, Anisimova, Boisson, Pegula, Andreeva and Kasatkina.

On the ATP Tour in 2025 the Round of 16 included: Popyrin, Paul, Zverev, Griekspoor, Tiafoe, Altmaier, Musetti, Rune, Shelton, Alcaraz, Bublik, Draper, Sinner, Rublev, Norrie and Djokovic.

In bold are all players who advanced to the quarterfinals and in italics are your semifinalists of the 2025 French Open. The respective Finals comprised of Gauff v Sabalenka & Alcaraz v Sinner with Gauff and Alcaraz the eventual Champions. With that out of the way, let’s focus on the 2026 Round of 16 because there’s a significant difference.

2026 WTA Tour: Sabalenka, Osaka, Keys, Shnaider, Potapova, Kalinskaya, Chwalinska, Parry, Svitolina, Bencic, Kostyuk, Swiatek, Andreeva, Teichmann, Cirstea and Wang.

2026 ATP Tour: Cerundolo (CM), Berrettini, Tiafoe, Arnaldi, Auger-Aliassime, Tabilo, Cobolli, Svajda, Mensik, Rublev, Ruud, Fonseca, Jodar, Carreno Busta, De Jong and Zverev.

Five WTA Tour players maintained their baseline in contrast to two ATP Tour players. Of those five, three maintained their quarterfinal baseline and of the two, one maintained their quarterfinal baseline. Both Andreeva and Zverev maintained their 2025 to 2026 quarterfinal and semifinal baseline respectively whilst keeping in mind a Round of 16 benchmark remains firm.

Whilst some players do consistently breach this baseline and achieve a quarterfinal or further result, a Round of 16 correlates with a Top 10 ranking should it be a consistent metric. As such, of the 5 x WTA Tour players and 2 x ATP Tour players, 4 x WTA players were inside the Top 10 prior to the Championship and 1 x ATP player – Sabalenka, Svitolina, Swiatek, Andreeva and Zverev. As such, these five players align with the ruler of the 8% (recall from “How to Develop a Top 10 Tennis Ranking“). Fascinating! And of these 5 players, four are now Grand Slam Champions!

Thirteen of the 2025 WTA Round of 16 players have been previously and/or currently ranked inside the Top 10 in contrast to 7 of those who advanced to the 2026 Round of 16. Twelve of the 2025 ATP Round of 16 players have been previously and/or currently ranked inside the Top 10 in contrast to 8 of those who advanced to the 2026 Round of 16. Collectively, that’s an even twenty per tour across season.

An even split!

Why is this important? Whilst I’ve written about it in my Books (thirteen non-fiction to date), there is no discrepancy between tours. Yes, the Men may regress one season while the Women may follow in the next, there’s always a level of equilibrium which is rather exciting and often overlooked.

Now for the rankings post 2026 Roland Garros!

To begin, let’s narrow in on the Top 10. On the WTA Tour Muchova (10) leads Bencic (11) by less than 60 points, whilst Bencic leads Kostyuk (12) by more than 200. Shnaider (16) is back inside the Top 20 but not at her peak whilst Kalinskaya is back at 20 which also is not her peak. Chwalinksa is unsurprisingly the biggest winner (21) on the verge of the Top 20 and if her ranking did allow her direct entry to Wimbledon (which I believe the 2026 Wimbledon Championships rankings have already been cut off which is grossly unfair if you ask me), we’ll need to wait until the hardcourt season to see if Chwalinska will finish the season inside the Top 20. I’m saying yes. But before I get to the Top 10, let’s look at some interesting numbers. Wang is at 100 (up 48 places) a stark contrast to Chwalinska but deserves an applause. Kenin (103), V Kudermetova (104), Pliskova (106), Haddad Maia (108), Sun (110), Pavlyuchenkova (115), P Kudermetova (121), Zheng (122), Badosa (141), Boisson (155), Andreescu (158), Danilovic (197), E Andreeva (234) and Azarenka (304) is a non-exhaustive list of players that were inside the Top 100, Top 50, Top 20 to Top 10 within the last two seasons and have substantially regressed!

On the same account, two seasons ago Mboko (9) was around (or greater than) those ranking ranges and now remains inside the Top 10 courtesy of limited points to defend in the early part of the season. Due to Svitolina’s strong run last season, she’s ironically back a place (8) whilst Gauff (7) has slipped outside the Top 5 but this was anticipated prior to the Championships. Andreeva (6) has also remained outside the Top 5 irrespective of her maiden Grand Slam win due largely in part to the high level and depth of results she’s achieved so it only reflects slightly in the rankings. Interestingly, the Top 5 largely remains in tack with Anisimova (5) ahead by slightly less than 100 before Pegula (4) is ahead by 200. The gap between Swiatek (3) and the rest is only by a little less than 700 – perhaps the smallest gap we’ve seen in some time. But what’s really interesting is Rybakina’s (2) hold of approximately 1400 points ahead whilst Sabalenka (1) has less than a 1000 point lead. Well within reach.

With Wimbledon now mere weeks away, Swiatek and Anisimova have the most to lose. Should Anisimova fall before the Finals she’ll still comfortably remain inside the Top 10 – but not Top 5. The same applies for Swiatek should she not defend her crown and will regress alike Gauff outside the Top 5, leaving Sabalenka as the only ‘standing’ Top 3 we’ve become accustomed to over the last few seasons. Whilst Pegula’s relentless consistency should see her remain inside the five, noteworthy is Rybakina who doesn’t have as many points to defend until the second half of the season and why she’s actually in prime position to claim the No. 1 ranking should her baseline slightly improve. There are of course other factors to consider but I’ll leave it at that for now!

On the ATP Tour, Cobolli is firmly inside the Top 10. Yes, he was seeded 10 for the French Open but now his ranking reflects this stance. Bublik (11) is out by 600 points, Musetti (16) still within reach of rejoining the Top 10 when he recovers, whilst Mensik (17) is back inside the Top 20 but this is not his career high. Jodar (23) is at a career high and Fonseca (25) is now comfortably inside the Top 30 whilst Paul’s (28) regression continues despite his progression prior to Roland Garros. Arnaldi (34) is perhaps the biggest increase with a 70 point climb but I don’t believe this is his career high alike Berrettini (48) who has rejoined the Top 50 whilst Rune (64) continues to regress whilst he remains out of action. Tsitsipas (84), Popyrin (90), Mpetshi Perricard (93), Hurkacz (96), Wawrinka (110), Draper (112), Thompson (152), Dimitrov (170), Goffin (242), Monfils (259) and Nagal (278) is a non-exhaustive list of players who were ranked inside the Top 100, Top 50, Top 20 to Top 10 this season or within the last two! There are some quite significant regressions from former Top 10 players, for example, which is again noteworthy.

Now let’s narrow in on the Top 10 as asides from Cobolli all players remain in place with perhaps the biggest difference being the switch between Djokovic (7) and Auger-Aliassime (4) who remains a little less than 3000 points behind Zverev. When it comes to Sinner and Alcaraz, both who have dropped significant points, Alcaraz leads Zverev by more than 2500 points and Sinner leads Alcaraz by 3500 points. A big difference. That said, with Alcaraz out of Wimbledon he’ll regress even further and should remain at No. 2 unless Zverev has a solid run on the grass. Yes, there are additional factors to consider but alike the WTA Tour, I’ll best leave it there!

With the significant discrepancies between results over the last fortnight it’s important to consider those who maintained the Round of 16 threshold do in fact remain and align with the 8% – the most powerful predicator of success.

As for the 2026 French Open Champions, both Andreeva and Zverev were on course – their data was on track. No, Chwalinska and Cobolli were not anticipated to make the Finals and in Chwalinska’s case, most likely fall before the 3rd Round. But that wasn’t the case. Similar to Mboko winning Montreal (I believe) and now firmly holding her place inside the Top 10, these breakouts do happen and its now time to look towards the grass and see what anomaly waits us next and which players with the established baseline and peak will take home the 2026 Wimbledon Championships!

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From the Archives: Player Behaviour and Your Responsibility

Player Behaviour and Coach Responsibility

First published June, 2023

This week we’re looking at the role of player behaviour and how it is formed which is such an important topic that is often overlooked. I cannot tell you how many coaches I have come across over the years who want to be the “cool” coach and befriend their players. It is such a common practice and the ethics around that are just unfathomable but it happens left, right and centre and neither player or parent are made aware of the susceptibility that is so incredibly evident when it comes to not only the players performance, but also their overall behaviours.

The sporting world is no different to the real-world in such as whether you’re a tennis player, swimmer to basketball player, you’re just as susceptible to another persons behaviours as you would be in the classroom, office to boardroom. The more time you spend with someone, the more likely you’re to pick up specific character traits. This gets even more entrenched when you begin to view that person in a more ‘powerful’ light with greater impressions. Take for example the framing of a role model.

They’re everywhere but really, they’re leveraging your vulnerabilities to latch onto the views you resonate with most.

In simple terms, if your coach becomes your friend, you’re automatically more susceptible to behaviours that potentially you’ve already been taught are less than acceptable or encouraged. On the flip side, a good report between a player and their coach whereby a wonderful respect is shared, is conducive towards an effective role model opposed to one whereby susceptibility is a natural offshoot whether the traits are good or bad — it still happens.

To have a dive a little deeper, listen to this week’s episode on Player Behaviour and remember to share your thoughts to insights in the Question shared (on your screen as you tune into the episode).

To learn more about our data, predictive analytics and how to optimise your own performance, head on over to AM8 International. To learn more about AM8 International check out our selection of Books and/or options to join Dr B’s Pack to gain exclusive access to the best in the world. Not quite ready? Head on over to Beyond Top 10 Tennis for free access to 100+ episodes directly from Dr Berge of what it really takes to win multiple Grand Slams to securing that Top 10 tennis ranking with new episodes each week. More? Catch up on our Tips over on TikTok, Twitter, Threads or Instagram for quick snippets to apply in your game, today.