Alcaraz Archives - AM8 International

Posted on 12 April 202412 April 2024 by Dr B

Tennis Rankings and How to stay on track towards the Top of the Game

With 12 Books to my name and 11 of those that have specifically noted the ‘how’ behind developing a Top 10 tennis ranking alongside Grand Slam Championship wins to ‘how’ to win that maiden Slam to achieve replicated success, if there’s something remarkable to achieve across the tennis landscape there’s a very good chance I’ve researched it, investigated and compiled the data, put in the hard yards, used various analytical models developed over the past twenty years, and delivered on these outcomes.

You don’t get to be at the Top of the game as its leading scientist and authority behind these key metrics without putting in the work. Truth be told, the likes of Swiatek to Alcaraz and their respective ascension to the Top of the game was all noted by these predictive analytics. And whilst I’ve previously shared this, it’s an incredibly important reminder that what has been uncovered — this new wave of data and insights, really does deliver what no Academy and/or Club across the world really does — on repeat.

Sure, you’ve got Serena’s former coach and their Academy. You’ve got various ones here in Australia. Next you’ve got Ferrero to Henin and Clijsters, plus Nadal’s and there’s definitely a two dozen others across the landscape — then ten-fold. By all accounts, you primarily only hear about two or three of them essentially because these coaches are on the ATP tour (primarily) working with Top 10 players. That said, Serena’s former coach did not develop Rune from scratch nor Halep — they’d already peaked.

Ferrero and Alcaraz are a unique story. Same applies for Swiatek and even Jabeur to Rybakina and Sabalenka. That is to say, the WTA has done the hard work and these are not from “big name” Academy’s (at the time) — and that’s the point.

If anything, it’s about the journey and finding those who are willing to be with you on the way to the top. From inception — a new feature on AM8 International I’ve developed to help guide players and coaches, in cohesion, through to delivery-centric outcomes — that Top 10 tennis ranking and more, there’s really a lot more to it than meets the eye.

The funny thing is hundreds if not thousands of potential players are based at these Academy’s around the globe with some Clubs bigger than others. The irony here is that they’re not privy to this data nor have they repeated their results at scale. That’s the difference between them and AM8 International — I let the data do the talking. Which essentially means names from De Minaur to Ostenpenko — Top 10, Collins to Dimitrov who are having stellar seasons and one has already landed back inside the Top 10 with the other on their way, have been tracked in alignment with our data to indicate that these are by no means surprise results.

But promises are a funny thing. A romance of sorts between the dreamers to desires and bringing them to life. But can they really? Try not to fall into the trap unless they have PoW (Proof of Work) and your ranking continues to ascend alongside your performances. Granted, one can be great, but without the two you’re lopsided — you’re missing a key piece to the puzzle. And that’s okay given that 50% of the current Top 10 are missing these key metrics and are lagging so far this season.

But it starts at the foundations. The same applies for time off with injuries and how to mitigate these. But guess what? It comes down to your technical metrics and these technicalities if you may have been built and designed by yours truly — and are attributed to these ranking milestones and their respective achievements. If your coach is not privy to this ‘new’ wave of technical prowess, that Top 10 status is behind the eight ball. Alas, that’s why I designed the 8 Keys to ensure each and every player and coach has access to become the best in the world and join the next generation of play.

The catch? There is none, not really. It simply requires consistency and hard work. The commitment to learn the 7 Keys before the 8th Key runs your game home. And where’s home? Well in this context, comfortably inside that elusive 8% — inside the Top 10, opposed to the 2% that will regress each and every season (as a baseline).

If you’re not inside the Top 10 sure enough you have a long way to go. But that’s what The Long Game was built for to ensure you have a Pathway to follow without getting lost in all the jargon and over promises. For real, to bring dreams to life in contrast to letting them go due to injury and/or underperforming.

Oh, the best part? It’ll also save you ten-fold in the long run. Why? Quite simply I wanted to ensure AM8 International remained affordable and accessible for all which means irrespective of your socioeconomic background, there’s a PoI for you and a place you can go to for guidance and advice whilst keeping you up to speed with the latest insights behind progressing towards that Top 10 tennis ranking — ranked inside the WTA or ATP Top 20 or Top 10, or at the other end of the spectrum — developmental and/or a current high performance player, there are inroads to take (and tackle) step by step.

The best part? The epitome of the tennis world awaits and we’ve got the data to support it. But if anything, today’s lesson really is about caution — not everything you are told is always the truth. As in life, ulterior motives are a truth so if those dreams are as dear to you as my commitment to delivering on our promises, take a few minutes (or an hour, to be thorough) and sieve through AM8 International — then track back in a few week’s when our new upgrade becomes available. Trust me, you won’t be disappointed. If anything, you’ll be more informed and better understand the more intricate details that go on behind the scenes and where to get started — irrespective if you’re Top 500 and/or Top 50 on the WTA or ATP tour, we’ve got a place for you to ensure those dreams become a reality.

To learn more about our data, predictive analytics and how to optimise your own performance, head on over to AM8 International. To learn more about AM8 International check out our selection of Books and/or options to join Dr B’s Pack to gain exclusive access to the best in the world. Not quite ready? Head on over to Beyond Top 10 Tennis for free access to 80+ episodes directly from Dr Berge of what it really takes to win multiple Grand Slams to securing that Top 10 tennis ranking with new episodes each week. More? Catch up on our Tips over on TikTok, Twitter, Threads or Instagram for quick snippets to apply in your game, today.

Posted on 5 April 20245 April 2024 by Dr B

How a Tennis Ranking is NOT the whole Truth of Top 10 Tennis Players

Alcaraz won Indian Wells. Sinner won Miami. Medvedev showed up in the Finals and Semi-Finals respectively. Djokovic fell in the 3rd Round of Indian Wells and opted out of Miami. Sinner fell to Alcaraz in the semi-finals of Indian Wells whilst Alcaraz fell to Dimitrov in the Quarter-Finals of Miami. Dimitrov made the Finals in Miami and fell to Medvedev in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells. Zverev made the Semi-Finals in Miami and the Quarter-Finals at Indian Wells.

Swiatek won Indian Wells and fell in the Round of 16 at Miami. Sabalenka fell in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells and the 3rd Round in Miami. Gauff made the Semi-Finals in Indian Wells and fell in the Round of 16 at Miami. Sakkari made the Final at Indian Wells and fell in the Quarter-Finals to Rybakina in Miami. Pegula lost in the 2nd Round at Indian Wells and made the Quarter-Finals in Miami. Rybakina opted out of Indian Wells and made the Finals of Miami. Collins fell in the 2nd Round to Swiatek at Indian Wells before winning Miami.

Are you keeping pace? By simple deduction, the rankings are wrong.

The truth of the matter is that when we narrow our focus on the current crop of Top 10 players they simply are not holding their own on a consistent basis. These cyclical performances that afford pre-conditioned peak performance outcomes are off the mark for many. But these primary players offer a glimpse into these fluctuations — back to back performances and their subsequent results. A very simple snapshot of the Top 4 to 5 players on the ATP and WTA tours at this moment in time.

But there’s more than meets the eye. Recall the 8% and those susceptible to regressing — denoted by the 2%. And here, it’s a small window that affords a glimpse into these rulers that govern the best tennis players in the world.

And that’s important. It’s a snapshot of this period of the calendar year. After all, Sabalenka won the opening Grand Slam of the season and hasn’t been able to live up to the hype. Swiatek on the other hand has continued to outperform and gain further traction with her ranking. The Australian Open Finalist — Zheng, has yet to showcase the same level of play despite her Top 10 ranking. This is one of many snippets that show a current flaw in the rankings. Meanwhile, Collins is outside the Top 10 and almost inside the Top 20 after her Miami title and yet continues to outperform 50% of the Top 10.

Go figure. Numbers don’t lie. But also only tell half the truth.

Alcaraz has been backing it up with Top 2 to Top 8 performances or greater. Sinner is Top 2 and Top 4 respectively, or greater. Djokovic is out of the equation when considering these metrics. Medvedev is Top 2 and Top 4 but does’t receive as much hype as deserved. Zverev is Top 4 and Top 8 whilst Dimitrov is Top 2 and Top 16. And that’s the reality of the cutoff. Both Rudd and De Minaur are Top 16 and Top 16 — just scaling inside.

Swiatek is Top 2 and Top 16, or greater. Sabalenka is Top 16 and null (given that 16 is the marker here for inclusion if coupled with a greater performance). Gauff is Top 4 and Top 16. Sakkari is Top 2 and Top 8. Pegula is null and Top 8. Rybakina is null and Top 2. Collins is null and Top 2, or greater. Navarro is Top 8 and Top 16.

Therefore the ATP tour is led by Sinner who is followed by Medvedev, then Alcaraz, Zverev and Dimitrov before Rudd and De Minaur. That rounds out the Top 7 followed by Djokovic simply because he deserves inclusion. And remember, Sinner won the Australian Open and Medvedev was the Finalist. Both are living up to the hype.

The WTA tour is led by Sakkari followed by Swiatek. However, there is reason for slight caution here as Sakkari has only recently found her Top 10 form again whereby Swiatek has been a trailblazer ever since her early exit at the Australian Open. On this basis, there’s greater leverage to note Swiatek — alongside her current ranking, to be followed by Sakkari (although in reality, Sakkari would sit closer to 5). Gauff follows before Navarro if consistency is the name of the game. Rybakina, Collins, Pegula and Sabalenka follow. However, there is a significant level of ambiguity here as other players ranked outside the Top 10 did make the Round of 16 or greater but only the mentioned players are 1) inside the Top 10, or 2) made the Finals and/or 3) had Top 16 or greater results in back to back tournaments. It’s a tough bar but reasonable for someone with the caliber of a Top 10 player.

But why aren’t all Top 10 players included?

By deduction, Swiatek, Sakkari, Gauff and Navarro are the most consistent players across both events. In contrast, that’s 4 WTA players who have consistently been performing — 3 inside the WTA Top 10, whereby 7 have been consistently performing on the ATP tour with 5 inside the ATP Top 10 before and after these events, whereby Dimitrov is now ranked back inside the Top 10, De Minaur was and now has been pushed outside the Top 10.

On the WTA tour, Pegula (5), Jabeur (6), Zheng (8), Vondrousova (9) and Ostenpenko (10) round out the Top 10. With Rybakina’s Finalist result coupled with her performances so far this season, although she trails Swiatek, both of these players have a level of play that exceeds their fellow Top 10 on a consistent basis. Sakkari has the recent results but it’s a matter of consistency. Ostenpenko did have the results but has not performed the past two events to her new baseline (capacity). Pegula follows whilst Jabeur, Zheng and Vondrousova have not lived up to their respective rankings this season with the exception for Zheng with her Finalist result.

On the ATP tour, Sinner has earned his place as the new No. 2 whilst Djokovic undoubtedly holds onto the No. 1. Alcaraz is then firm at No. 3 and is closely followed by Medvedev. Both 2 and 3 will continue to be interchanged unless Medvedev claims another Grand Slam and/or Djokovic takes a hiatus for a few months. Zverev holds his place at No. 5. Rublev, Rune and Hurkacz round out the Top 10 and these players have not been living up to their ranking expectations over this snapshot — period in time (as in now, 2024 — primarily the month of March).

Interestingly, the ATP has a more consistent level of play in the Top 5 whereby the WTA holds true to its Top 4 with Sakkari still inside the Top 10. There are null newcomers to consider on the ATP with standout wins (per the set inclusion). In contrast, the WTA has Collins with the Miami title and Navarro with a greater level of consistency than >50% of the current Top 10 — again, over this snapshot.

The truth therefore is not entirely in the rankings.

But rankings take time and consistency. I’d argue then (along with the data) that if the Top 10 was placed on a performance scale with room for slight fluctuations and a Round of 16 result a prerequisite 75% of the time — or greater, for a Top 5 ranking, 50% of the time for a Top 10 ranking — as a minimum, we’d see something quite different. But, a few seasons ago this was the case for the true rankings and results. At this point in time, to see and understand the whole truth it has become a matter of deduction and not all Top 10 players are living up to these expectations.

It’s hard, but it’s truth. So much so, a player does not garner traction for inclusion in our data (extensively published) unless these Round of 16 results become a reality — at the Grand Slam level. It’s one thing to win significant tiles alike Indian Wells and Miami, but another to play at the same level or greater at a Grand Slam. But this is where it starts and yet if the Australian Open is anything to go by, the ATP tour has been living up to its key expectations whilst the WTA simply has not with the No. 1 — Swiatek, finding her feet again and surging, whilst Sakkari finds a new lease on her game — for how long we’ll soon find out.

Posted on 29 January 20242 February 2024 by Dr B

Day 13 Australian Open: Zheng, Yastremska, Zverev, Alcaraz, Medvedev and Hurkacz plus who’s in line for more Grand Slam Success?

It’s the Day 13 of the Australian Open and it has been a whirlwind week with a bucket load of surprises in one way, shape or form. Most recently across Day 12 the match between Gauff and Sabalenka took centre stage. Herein we’ll share the other matches that were equally as exciting with their own respective key takeaways to be addressed. One of those matches was Zheng v Yastremska and it really needs to be noted how close this match up was, but at the same time, perhaps the best tennis Zheng has played all tournament. Unfortunately for Yastremska it was Zheng who lifted her game on the points that really mattered despite the progressions that Yastremska has made this Australian Open and without a doubt has ascended back to her prior ranking high and is flagged to progressively ascend inside the Top 20 if she is able to uphold this level of play throughout the 2024 season.

On the other hand, it is Zheng who has not only made her maiden Grand Slam final but has become a barrier breaker by landing a Top 10 tennis ranking. It goes without saying that if Zheng is able to maintain her level of play exhibited in the semi-finals and to continue with this level of maintenance, she is primed to make an additional semi-final appearance this season and potentially another Grand Slam final awaits and in due course her very own Grand Slam title.

It is incredibly important to note that it is not automatic that Zheng will claim a Grand Slam title this season due to her relatively streamlined run this Australian Open in contrast to coming up against seeded players and/or former Grand Slam Champions throughout the draw in contrast to other players who were dealt a significantly harder draw than others this Australian Open.

There are two other matches that were played out on Day 12 but did not have the chance to be discussed due to the repeat of the more recent US Open final between Gauff and Sabalenka that garnered the spotlight for good reason. These two distinct quarter-final lineups between Zverev and Alcaraz, and Medvedev v Hurkacz did not disappoint and delivered their blockbuster status on multiple fronts. Both of these matches comprised of stellar performances and whilst many would have been surprised with the result of Zverev trudging away with the Win against Alcaraz despite the third set being incredibly close, Zverev’s metrics did not disappoint and they had flagged him with the potential to deliver this result irrespective of Alcaraz’s current form. This may appear rather conflicting in particular when Alcaraz is the player at the other end, however, Zverev is not only a current Top 10 player, his rate of success and his patterns of play have afforded him a place inside this ranking range over a much lengthier period in comparison to Alcaraz. This is not only due to Zverev being privy to the 7 Keys alike Alcaraz, by his integration of the 8th Key is absolutely paramount. In contrast, it really needs to be highlighted that this Australian Open Alcaraz was not able to keep all 8 Keys in check which can also be attributed to his primary Coach not being able to make the trip with Alcaraz this Australian Summer. And that is an incredibly significant indicator when reviewing key patterns of play to progressions of players at the elite echelon of play.

This now brings us to the incredible trade-off between Medvedev and Hurkacz as they went one set a piece before two, until the fifth set was an incredible decider. It has to be said that this match was breathtaking in various ways from not merely the standard of play, but also the quality delivered by both players. Insofar as Hurkacz performed, this has to be one of his highest quality matches in recent seasons and really solidified his place inside the Top 10. As a player who has regressed outside this ranking range and ascended back into the Top 10, the level of play Hurkacz was able to deliver and maintain throughout this match really signals an important change in the player’s game. And that is the readiness to preparedness by Hurkacz to progress to the semi-final stage or greater at least once this season at the Grand Slam level if he is able to maintain his current level of play.

Perhaps just as exciting, if Hurkacz can hold onto this level of play and establish a new baseline he will become even more problematic for other Top 10 players and position himself for his very own Grand Slam title in the next season if this calibre can more frequently deliver in three, in contrast to five, and to do so more consistently.

On the other hand, Medvedev was absolutely solid and despite going down in two of the five sets, he was the player who was more steadfast and able to maintain his baseline, even if the separation between the two was evident in the micro-discrepancies as discussed in the “What is Your Game Missing Series” and “The 7 Keys to Optimise Your Life”. These micro-discrepancies remain as the differential between these players at the absolute elite level of play. And this is where The Power of the 8th Key really comes into its own. When considering the baseline and quality of play delivered by Medvedev, there is no surprise in the player progressing to the semi-final stage as not only a Grand Slam Champion in his own right, but also a finalist at the Grand Slam level on multiple occasions. Without a doubt, Medvedev is one of only a handful of current players who has the capacity and active baseline that aligns with their level of maintenance and distinctive patterns of play that place him in a unique position of progressing to the semi-final stage and ultimately be one of the final two competing for the Championship title throughout a given season. That said, if Medvedev’s current baseline begins to fluctuate, so will his capacity to reach this stage of a Grand Slam and the likelihood of him claiming another Grand Slam title will not be as streamlined, and/or as increasingly likely, as is his current level of play throughout the most reason three seasons has carried over once again into the 2024 season.

On that merit alone it cannot be understated how accomplished Medvedev is along with his level of play that he would undoubtedly have a number of additional Grand Slams to his name if it were not for the arrival of Alcaraz and the continued dominance of Djokovic and most recently Sinner the past season. All in all, there is a reason why Medvedev has maintained his place not simply inside the Top 10 for a number of seasons, but his place primarily inside the Top 3 with his active baseline primed for more with slight technical variance that will allow Medvedev to more rapidly Win against his primary rivals — Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner.

To learn more about AM8 International check out our selections of Books to options to join Dr B’s Pack to gain exclusive access to the best in the world. Not quite ready? Head on over to Beyond Top 10 Tennis for free to access 60+ episodes directly from Dr Berge of what it really takes to win multiple Grand Slams to securing that Top 10 tennis ranking. More? Catch up on our Tips over on TikTok, Twitter, Threads or Instagram for quick snippets to apply in your game, today.

Posted on 25 January 20242 February 2024 by Dr B

Australian Open Day 11: Snapshot of Kalinskaya and Kostyuk in the Spotlight, Yastrzemska v Zheng and How Zverev defeated Alcaraz

It’s Day 11 of the Australian Open and so far we’ve been focusing on the more technical proponents of a player’s game and how these have either afforded them the prospects of making it “this far” at the Australian Open, or why they haven’t quite been able to amp up their game and deliver on the Grand Slam stage. Given this stage of the Australian Open and with the Quarterfinals underway, there are two primary matches that deserve wider focus for different albeit similar reasons. The first off the bat is Zheng v Kalinskaya and the focus here is going to be on the player who wasn’t the one to progress to the semifinals — Kalinskaya who was quite the surprise packet in respect to rankings this Australian Open, along with a number of other players, but let’s place the spotlight on this “newcomer”.

As previously shared, a player is placed on the “radar” with a Round of 16 result or greater at the Grand Slam level. Sometimes there are exceptions, but this is typically the case. That, and a player ascending inside the Top 10 tennis rankings. Typically, these two go hand in hand and I’m a firm believer (and so is the data) that a player inside the Top 10 tennis rankings “should” progress to the Round of 16 or greater at a Grand Slam.

After all, there are four Grand Slams per year and the Round of 16 represents the “best 16 players” at a given tournament that are prepared to deliver. And by deliver this is in respect to the 8 Keys to the initial 7 Keys and the markers in the “What is Your Game Missing Series” to the new release “How to Develop a Top 10 Tennis Ranking“.

Of course there are exceptions. These are in respect to a Top 10 player “falling” to an in-form player who has come out of the brickworks — like Kalinskaya. That said, it is expected that this does not happen EVERY Grand Slam. It is reasonable then for a Top 10 player to progress to the Round of 16 at least three times per season at the Grand Slam level with a 25% rate for the anomaly. This marker is quite high but so are those of Top 10 players with the markers to Win Grand Slams and much more. One off anomalies are exceptions, but they do not achieve the Golden Rule to replicated success. Whether coming up against eventual US Open Champion Radacanu, first time quarterfinalist Kalinskaya or a qualifier — Yastremska, you get the gist — a Top 10 player with the 8 Keys does not fall consistently, rather they battle through more often than not. But there’s a little more to it than meets the eye.

And this is why Kalinskaya is getting the spotlight. Not only is her game — after a careful analytical dive, meeting a number of the markers of the 7 Keys, but her ability to toe the line with the best in the world really needs to be highlighted. Zheng is the No. 12 seed and the first barrier breaker on the WTA for the 2024 season. Recall, there’s only 2% of players each season who cross this threshold with the exception for the anomalies. This is not an anomaly given Zheng’s more recent results at the 2023 US Open. But how Zheng progressed — against Wang and Kalinskaya was incredibly fortunate given both of these players were not ranked even remotely close to this ranking range, and yet they both pushed Zheng to the absolute max.

Kostyuk is another player who deserves the spotlight and has very similar metrics to Kalinskaya — both progressing to their very first quarterfinal at a Grand Slam which was unexpected. But there’s one thing both these players have in common and that is their respective metrics. Kostyuk is primed to ascend towards the Top 20 with her calibre of play. Kalinskaya, if she’s able to maintain this level of play she’ll soon be heading towards the Top 20 as well.

And then there are the current Top 10 players who are primed for Grand Slam success — but half of who are not. A little controversial, sure, but the same applies for the ATP tour and why Zverev defeating Alcaraz was not as shocking as it seems. If you’ve been familiar with Zverev you know he came close to claiming his maiden Championship some years ago. Before then, he was inside the Top 10 quite comfortably and did so with the likes of Djokovic, Nadal and Federer. And he was able to hold his own inside the 8% for a number of seasons. A player who has that kind of capacity has the 8 Keys. Does Alcaraz have the 8 Keys? You bet. But the differential here is in pressure and who was able to come out of the gates firing — first. And that was Zverev.

That’s all it takes against a player inside the Top 10 — against another Top 10 player plus the 8th Key being solidified in their game. The level of maintenance counts.

Whilst there is so much more to say and share here for Day 11 I’m going to leave the rest for our upcoming episode. Why? Because it’s equal parts exciting and entrenched with data that explains these endpoints — and is also shared in “How to Develop a Top 10 Tennis Ranking” and its predecessor “The 7 Keys to Optimise Your Life: Using Tennis to Develop Behaviours that Deliver Optimal Performances in Play and in Life”.