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Top 10 [Tennis] Rankings Corrections and how the 2024 Wimbledon Championships tightened the Top 5 Players on both the WTA and ATP tours

Over the past near 21 days the unfolding of the 2024 Wimbledon Championships has taken place from the lead up to the aftermath and with equally polarising results and yet still those players that are compounded by the data and how the past season has continued to unfold has been cause for a much needed realignment. A cautionary tale here is in respect to being mindful of the past season — 12 months until now, as if we only consider the current season and how the results have unfolded, then there’s a significant gap between the anticipated and what has more recently unfolded.

The beginning of the Championships noted the respective seedings take place on the Women’s and Men’s sides of the draw, as is typical, but what’s interesting here is in fact how the pending reshuffle of the rankings on both the WTA and ATP tours has been widely discussed on Beyond Top 10 Tennis this season with 50% of current Top 10 players not correlating with their ranking. In other words, their results do not align with those of a player ranked inside the Top 10. Most importantly, this is across both the WTA and ATP tours. What’s even more interesting, is that the ATP tour rankings started to correct themselves roughly 2-3 months ago as the clay-court season really triggered some key players to amp up their game and get back in action. The same can’t be said for the WTA tour which has now only corrected itself but there is still a margin of error for those who remain not in alignment with a Top 10 ranking.

To better clarify these rankings, it’s important to showcase how the 2024 Wimbledon Championships unveiled and impacted those inside the Top 10. On the WTA tour, there were only 9 active seeds due to Sabalenka withdrawing after the draw had been announced. Of these 9 seeds, only 3 made the Round of 16 or further — Gauff, Rybakina and Paolini. Importantly, these 3 players have remained inside the 8% across the past 2-3 seasons. Despite. Swiatek falling in the 3rd Round, as the reigning French Open Champion, Swiatek’s results this season have equally been in this category and Sabalenka closely follows, however, not too close. The updated WTA rankings post Wimbledon does in fact afford a better depiction of the Top 5 and resonated with the data. Noteworthy, players ranked inside the Top 10 but outside the Top 5 do not all align with these metrics. Whilst Krejcikova is the newly crowned Wimbledon Champion, she is deserving of her place inside the Top 10. However, if her results do not follow across the hard-court season she is more suceptible to regress. Either way, Krejcikova is a part of the 2% vulnerable to regressing outside the Top 10.

The other player inside the Top 10 and suceptible of regressing would be Sakkari given her results this season do in fact align with a Top 10 ranking — albeit not at the Grand Slam level, but she has a level of consistency ahead of other players inside this range. Collins is now more firmly inside the Top 10 and she was prior to Roland Garros before slightly being pushed out, but Collins’ performance does in fact correlate with a Top 10 ranking this season. Not quite Top 5, but Top 10 does resonate with her level of play. That leaves Pegula and Zheng.

Unfortunately, whilst Pegula has had some time off this season, her results simply do not correlate with a Top 10 ranking and haven’t all season with the exception to her maiden grass-court title prior to Wimbledon. Sure, Zheng was a Finalist at the 2024 Australian Open but her results have continued to underperform since this peak performance. Two players who have in fact been tracking this season are Ostapenko and Kasatkina. Both of these players have been performing better than those who are not correlating with their current ranking. That said, Ostapenko has been inside the Top 10 this season and does deserve to become a barrier breaker again. That leaves 1 place up for grabs for players who do in fact correlate with that Top 10 ranking and can be placed inside the 8% in contrast to the aforementioned 2%. And who would that be? That’s the elusive question to unfold for the rest of the season, but there are two primary players who are tracking with similar if not greater consistency than Kasatkina — Keys, a former barrier breaker for a number of seasons, and Navarro, a standout player so far this season along with a handful of players who continue to find that new baseline. Not quite as consistent as Paolini, but has surpassed the likes of Kostyuk and Kalinskaya. Whilst Samsonova is closing in on the Top 10, both Keys and Navarro have the greater potential and as far as the data is concerned and clear indicators of a player’s capacity to correlate with a Top 10 ranking — these are clear signs.

As such, the WTA tour still has a slight correction to unfold and the current Top 10 rankings post Wimbledon, whilst improved, does not fully align with current player performances, baselines and/or key metrics.

When it comes to the ATP tour the correction started to take place at the beginning of the 2024 season when the likes of Tsitsipas, Fritz and Rune were pushed out of the Top 10 and De Minaur, Dimitrov and Ruud became barrier breakers. Whilst Dimitrov and Ruud have both been inside this key ranking range previously, it was De Minaur who remains the sole newcomer this season. Interestingly, both Tsitsipas and Fritz have briefly progressed back inside the Top 10 this season but neither have been able to maintain their place and as such were clearly denoted inside the 2%. Those inside this key marker now are Dimitrov and Ruud despite their more successful clay-court season and Dimitrov continuing to maintain his peak baseline. The only player at this stage inside the Top 10 who does not correlate with this key range is Rublev and due to his on-court behaviour of late, he undoubtedly deserves a suspension in some way, shape or form to ensure physical self-harm is not accepted nor tolerated.

Noteworthy, when considering recent player performances it is in fact Fritz who has been finding his feet once again. It is equally important to note that Fritz has a peak baseline that fluctuates and is cyclical whereby he peaks and then there’s a drop off in his level of play before he peaks again. Fortunately for Fritz, this new cycle started just prior to Wimbledon before falling short to Musetti. Either way, the results speak for themselves and a true ranking correction on the ATP tour will include Fritz with Paul the second ‘new’ barrier breaker potentially this season. As far as the Top 5 are concerned, alike the WTA tour these are true depictions of current levels of play. The same can be said for the 8% if Fritz replaced Rublev. Interestingly, if Fritz is factored into the equation and due to his cyclical baseline, he would then be placed inside the 2% and Ruud would be pushed then into the 8%.

What’s even more interesting and why the correction of the ATP rankings remains true — prior to Wimbledon, in contrast to the WTA rankings, is that where the WTA had 3 of their Top 9 inside the Round of 16 — make that 4 if factoring the Top 10 seeds (i.e. Collins seeded 11 with Sabalenka’s 3rd Seed void), 7 players progressed to the Round of 16 and of those 7 players, they all lost to a Top 10 player if Fritz is granted that Top 10 ranking. Of these players, 5 progressed to the  in contrast to the WTA tour and only 2 of these players Rybakina and Paolini, progressed beyond the Round of 16 to the semi-finals and finals respectively.

What’s perhaps even more interesting is that Sinner continues his No.1 reign despite succumbing in the quarterfinals. Alcaraz secured back-to-back Grand Slams and still remains as No. 3. What’s even more wild is that Djokovic who is yet to win a title all season, continues his hold on the No. 2 ranking, however, both Alcaraz and Djokovic defended thier points from the 2023 Championships. Rublev, Hurkacz and Ruud did not pass the 2nd Round at best and still they remain inside the Top 10. That’s even more questionable. Pegula and Zheng were the only players on the WTA tour to fall in these earlier rounds and why they’ve also been flagged as not correlating with a Top 10 ranking. And whilst Rublev has equally been noted as not correlating with a Top 10 ranking, both Hurkacz and Ruud have had reasonable form this season but that 2% on the ATP tour is in fact ‘wider’ than on the WTA tour. In other words, more players on the ATP tour are more suceptible to being displaced in contrast to the WTA tour. The irony here is that is was the opposite merely a few weeks ago before the correction stared to take place, and now there are more vulnerable players on the ATP tour as the WTA tour is now tightening its ranks.

But to be clear, this is only applicable if the aforementioned Top 10 comes to fruition to align with a players current level of play which also accounts for a handful of players on both the WTA and ATP tours being displaced — regressing outside the Top 10 and to be replaced by one or more of those that have been named.

For a greater breakdown of player results across the 2024 Wimbledon Championships you’ll need to hold off until next week. Whilst I was hoping to ‘cram’ that all into one post, it turns out there were a lot more intricate details to divulge and discuss around Top 10 rankings, how these rankings have interchanges so far this season and the role of corrections pre-French Open and post-Wimbledon have started to shed new light on those players who truly have been holding onto that 8% as well as those who reside inside the 2% and remain susceptible to levelling out. Of course, the 8% is directly correlated with the 8 Keys and the prerequisite to a Top 10 ranking remains in the 7 Keys. The same can be said for those who have their eyes on becoming a barrier breaker — for the first time or to cross the threshold once again.

To learn more about our data, predictive analytics and how to optimise your own performance, head on over to AM8 International. To learn more about AM8 International check out our selection of Books and/or options to join Dr B’s Pack to gain exclusive access to the best in the world. Not quite ready? Head on over to Beyond Top 10 Tennis for free access to 80+ episodes directly from Dr Berge of what it really takes to win multiple Grand Slams to securing that Top 10 tennis ranking with new episodes each week. More? Catch up on our Tips over on TikTokTwitterThreads or Instagram for quick snippets to apply in your game, today. 

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Special Edition: 2024 Wimbledon Championships — Quarter-Finals, Semi-Finals & Finals [TENNIS] Player Insights & Results

This is episode 106 of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Beyond Top 10 Tennis⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ as we come LIVE to you from ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AM8 International⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for the Quarter-Finals, Semi-Finals & Finals of the ⁠2024 Wimbledon Championships⁠ with all Women’s and Men’s matches discussed. The Quarter-Finals, Semi-Finals & Championship Match of the Women’s and Men’s draw are in action across Days 9 through 14 as all matches come to a close with notable ⁠Top 10⁠ Insights. The Video for episode 106 is available on both Spotify & YouTube whilst remaining available wherever you enjoy listening. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Key ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Players across the Final Days include the [NEW] Wimbledon Champions: Krejcikova & Alcaraz, the Wimbledon Finalists: Paolini & Djokovic, plusfirst time Semi-Finalists Vekic & Musetti.

Tune in to Beyond Top 10 Tennis and jump to Episode #106 to learn more.

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Special Edition: 2024 Wimbledon Championships Days 7 & 8 [TENNIS] Player Insights & Results

This is episode 105 of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Beyond Top 10 Tennis⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ as we come LIVE to you from ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AM8 International⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on Days 7 & 8 of the ⁠2024 Wimbledon Championships⁠ with all Women’s and Men’s Days 7 & 8 matches discussed. The Round of 16 of the Women’s draw plus the Round of 16 of the Men’s draw are in action across Days 7 & 8 as all Round of 16 matches come to a close with notable ⁠Top 10⁠ Insights plus all Quarter-Final encounters are reviewed! The Video for episode 105 is available on both Spotify & YouTube whilst remaining available wherever you enjoy listening. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Key ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Players on Days 7 & 8 include Grand Slam Champions Ostapenko, Krejcikova, Rybakina, Djokovic, Sinner, Alcaraz, Medvedev plus Paolini, Svitolina, Navarro, Vekic, Sun, De Minaur, Fritz, Paul & Musetti whilst notable exits include Gauff, Raducanu, Keys, Dimitrov, Shelton & Zverev.

Tune in to Beyond Top 10 Tennis and jump to Episode #105 to learn more.

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The Official WTA & ATP Tour Wrap of [TENNIS] Player Rankings, Results & Insights for the Week of 24 June

This is episode 98 of ⁠⁠Beyond Top 10 Tennis⁠⁠ as we come LIVE to you from ⁠⁠AM8 International⁠⁠ with the latest Rankings & Results on the WTA and ATP tours with [NEW] insights shared. From the ⁠⁠Top 10⁠⁠ Rankings to the Results of the past week that have set them in motion, we review all ⁠⁠key⁠⁠ matches and ⁠⁠key⁠⁠ players from last week’s tournaments on the WTA tour: Rothesay Classic (Birmingham), ecotrans Open (Berlin), Veneto Open and this week’s events at Bad Homburg & Eastbourne; followed by last week on the ATP tour: Queen’s and Halle and this week’s events at Mallorca & Eastbourne. The Video for episode 98 is available on both Spotify & YouTube whilst remaining available wherever you enjoy listening. ⁠⁠Key⁠⁠ Players this week include Putintseva, Pegula, Parks, Paul, Sinner & Hurkacz. 

Tune in to Beyond Top 10 Tennis and jump to Episode #98 to learn more.