Last week we just touched the surface on essentially what we were really able to witness throughout the 2024 French Open with only a handful of players highlighted with so much more depth to come. As promised, this week it’s time to dive into a little more detail to really showcase the depth of the field and players that did not progress to the finals, however, still made an impressive appearance in the final eight. Needless to say, at the Grand Slam level it really is in part the luck of the draw that allows the eventual Champion to cross the line. That said, it is also incredibly clear that this 2024 French Open was not the case on the woman’s side of the draw with the eventual Champion within millimetres of bowing out in the 2nd Round due to her opponent and the quality of play demanded.
Swiatek entered Roland Garros as almost a clear favourite. It would be incredibly unfair not to have placed Sabalenka in the top two with the potential to claim her third Grand Slam. By all accounts, whilst this wasn’t the case and we know the outcome and what unfolded, Sabalenka was still incredibly close to progressing to the finals if her health was maintained. The likes of Gauff to Collins and Sakkari were also incredibly underrated going into the second Grand Slam of the season and whilst Collins and Sakkari had earlier than anticipated exits it was remarkably surprising that there was limited traction around Gauff when she herself had previously been a finalist at Roland Garros and remains the reigning US Open champion.
On a similar front, Zverev was equally as underrated due to the likes of Tsitsipas and Ruud being more favoured on the clay and having slightly more success in the lead up to the French Open. It would be incredibly unfair, however, to say that Zverev what’s not a favourite to at least progress towards the semi-finals as our data indicated due to his level of consistency and rate of success essentially over the last near 10 Years. Take a moment to comprehend the enormity of this level of success and due to the likes of Djokovic, Nadal and Federer, predominantly being in the limelight throughout these years, followed by the likes of Murray and Wawrinka to even Del Potro when it comes to Grand Slam play, Zverev was always a part of the Top 10 pushing these players to their limits but was never able to capitalise against these respective games. Of course, Zverev came incredibly close when faced against Thiem in the US Open finals only a handful of years ago when his game really looked like it was at its absolute prime and a Grand Slam title had his name on it. Not since that very occasion has Zverev had the chance to claim is maiden Grand Slam and progressed to the finals with a good chance of potentially coming away with the win due to Alcaraz’s questionable level of play leading up to Roland Garros.
Which brings us to Alcaraz. Without a doubt Sinner was by far the favourite player when faced against Alcaraz in the semi-finals, however, the five setter really did live up to its potential. The irony was in the level of play Sinner was capable of, and in his metrics throughout the 2024 season that highlighted the power of his corresponding data that also pinpointed Sinner to claim his maiden Grand Slam title at this years Australian Open. In contrast, Alcaraz has not had the same level of quality of play throughout the 2024 season and it could very well be argued that Sinner and his level of play is equal to, and or greater than, the level of play that Alcaraz delivered throughout the 2023 season. It was somewhat surprising then on one hand for Alcaraz to regain his form from the previous season just in time for the French Open but truth be told given that Alcaraz progressed past the Round of 16 at the 2024 Australian Open this was a positive metric that worked in his favour to progress this French Open. Of course, it could also be argued — as has been shared on Beyond Top 10 Tennis that Alcaraz’s level of play between then, and now, did not reach a consistent baseline, but essentially skewed his metrics for the first half of the season.
Interestingly, the same can be said for Djokovic who was not expected to progress to the quarter-final stage of Roland Garros. However, it is equal counts irony to absurd to not factor Djokovic in as a potential Champion and on that logic, Djokovic was of course a contender for the 2024 French Open. Of equal interest is the fact that no one was talking about Zverev who, in fact, happened to be the player to defeat Alcaraz at this years Australian Open. Going off this level of play and with Zverev having relative success, including a clay title leading up to Roland Garros, he was one of the dark horses with the greatest potential to lift his maiden Grand Slam trophy. Add to the equation both Tsitsipas and Ruud who were both favoured as former Grand Slam finalists and yet they were both dismantled by the eventual contenders prior to their way to the finals. And this is what really separated the level of play between these four players with Djokovic being removed from contention due to withdrawing against Ruud who was the favourite player — also against Zverev due to his fresher legs and a heightened level of success in the lead up to Roland Garros.
Nonetheless, it was Zverev in four sets whilst on the other half of the draw, it would not have been surprising if Sinner walked away with a win in three clean sets against Alcaraz due to his level of play this season that aligns with his Number 1 status. And that’s what really makes Alcaraz stand out — despite this level he really amped up his game and switched it to familiar level that we had not witnessed since his triumphs during the 2022-2023 seasons.
Before we head on back over to the woman’s side, there are two final players that progressed to the quarter-finals that deserve a noteworthy applause. One of those players is Dimitrov who quietly progressed to the final eight, but what’s more interesting is that he was also incredibly underrated. Despite his Top 10 ranking, Dimitrov is having one of his best seasons to date becoming a barrier breaker years after he initially cracked into the Top 10 and he already has additional titles to his name this season. Whilst he is merely a handful of years younger than Djokovic, he remains a number of years ahead of all other players at this stage of the draw. Not only has Dimitrov raised his level of play, he was also projected, courtesy of the data to progress to, at the very least, the Round of 16 with an overwhelming chance to progress to this stage of the Grand Slam. However, Dimitrov flew under the radar due to the other names primarily being placed in the spotlight.
The second player that deserves an overwhelming shout out is De Minaur. What’s most exciting about De Minaur is that our data projected Alex to progress to this stage of the French open, however, not necessarily to move beyond. And this really highlights the power of our data. This is also complimentary to Alex’s climb to become a barrier breaker this season – a key metric that our data predicted, courtesy of our predictive analytics, more than two seasons ago. And this is what I absolutely love about my work, the work that I do, and why I have dedicated the last 20 Years of my life around this work — reinforcing why I continue to do so to allow players such as Alex a window of opportunity, but more than that — the realness to how to make those dreams a reality, and why AM8 International is the only place worldwide that is privy to these data sets. Why? Because this is the data that I have pooled, I have built, I have designed, and what I continued to deliver on in 11 Books and counting. Of course, to learn more about my work and the continued implications across the tennis world simply continue listening to Beyond Top 10 Tennis and reviewing and visiting the work at AM8 International and be sure to read up on my 12 Books to date with the next one currently in the works.
But before we finish our final eight key players of the 2024 French Open, the woman’s tour deserves an additional spotlight. Not only did Andreeva set the bar incredibly high for herself, her progress over the past 12 months has been incredibly impressive. Nonetheless, this has been cautioned against and ideally Andreeva will progress to a handful of Round of 16 results at the Grand Slam level prior to progressing to the finals.
Whilst a semi-final performance is beyond what our analytics shared, it is without a doubt that due to Andreeva’s age and her rapid-fire results that she is, in fact, an anomaly as previously shared and that these players do exist and why we caution players that may happen to appear to be, or become an anomaly to tread carefully to ensure this level of play, and the corresponding results, can be sustained in the years ahead, in contrast to peaking too soon and regressing quite dramatically.
One player who is yet to be touched on, but was discussed last week was the rise of Paolini. Whilst not so much an anomaly, in contrast to Andreeva, it would have been anticipated for Paolini to progress to the quarter-finals and for that to be in incredible accomplishment, whilst progressing to a potential semi-final to final at the later part of the 2024 season in contrast to now. As such, this year’s French Open will undoubtedly be one of the stellar highlights of Paolini’s career and ‘one of’ for good reason if Paolini maintains her current trajectory as she’s now prime to claim her maiden Grand Slam. In order to do so, Paolini will need to upkeep her current level of play and build on it to replicate these results. But if this current season is anything to go by, Paolini’s results continue to outweigh those of other players who have recently reached the finalist stage of a Grand Slam due to her complementary results to date this season. In simple terms, Paolini is on the Grand Slam radar and won’t be going anywhere any time soon.
To top off the eight players to align with the discussion on the men’s tour, there are in fact a number of players on the women’s tour who were not essentially favoured to reach the quarter-final stage despite their ranking. From Vondrousova to Jabeur, neither of these players were essentially expected to reach this stage of the Grand Slam and it was impressive for both to do so. Vondousova was more favoured over Jabeur, but when weighing Grand Slam metrics alone this can almost be discarded. And whilst their respective match outcomes were very different in respect to the scoreline, their opponents were also equally different when considering the result between Swiatek and Gauff — both players taking the win against Vondrousova and Jabeur, respectively. The other player that has yet to be touched on is Rybakina who was potentially predicted to progress to the semi-final stage, however, it also would not have been surprising if Rybakina fell at the Round of 16 due to her inconsistent performances this season primarily being the result of her health opposed to her results. And this is a near alarming statistic.
If Rybakina can, in fact, maintain her level of play in alignment with good health then she is in fact poised to claim her second Grand Slam title.
This Grand Slam, however, it was Paolini who was the better player despite the match going to three relatively tight sets. What really was the profound outcome of this match was that Paolini’s level of play and her ability to get the win against Rybakina really placed her in a healthy position with a fighting chance against Swiatek. By all accounts, we do know the scoreline that unfolded in the finals, but also the level of play Paolini was able to deliver and that the scoreline does not do that justice. Either way, it really is Swiatek that is incredibly deserving of multiple applauses given that not only was she able to overcome Osaka and win from match point down, she essentially was able to lift her game throughout the following rounds and for the most part maintain that level of play with her greatest challenge thereafter being against Gauff in the second set.
On a final note, Osaka is without a doubt one of a handful of players to watch in the latter half of the 2024 season and if our predictive analytics are anything to go by, it will not be surprising if in fact it is Osaka who progresses to the Round of 16 come Wimbledon — or further, and potentially the quarter-finals or further come the US Open due to her current level of play and trajectory. The same can also be said for Collins but at a different level due to Osaka’s previous Grand Slam success but don’t be fooled — Collins is a Grand Slam finalist and may very well be next in line to cap off her final season on tour with a maiden Crown.
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