All 1st and 2nd Round results are in with the corresponding predictive analytics so let’s dive in!
WTA Tour Analysis
The 1st Round Review
Starting with the WTA Tour the biggest upsets that were not anticipated in the 1st Round include: Svitolina, Chwalinska (up 5-2 in the second and was unable to close it out), Raducanu (late withdrawal) whilst S. Williams could be called an upset, however, per rankings it was Joint from the beginning. Of course when the analytics come to shape there’s a slight level of bias there from who I may like to win and typically this is disclosed and/or quite evident in the case of S. Williams!
All other exits in the 1st Round were not essentially ‘upsets’ but rather players who were tracking over the other by a slight margin whilst the other player found their level on the day. There’s not much to be done about that especially in the 1st Round when for many of these players it’s almost like an even playing field transitioning from the clay to grass without much time to prepare. It’s an interesting dynamic from this perspective as some players begin on an even playing field which is arguably not the case for the clay when they’ve had weeks of preparation or the hard court season. Some players either adjust quickly or others find time to get into their groove (so to speak) whilst lower ranked players may take advantage in that in-between time.
Also it’s worth noting players who didn’t break after the clay could also be suffering from poor periodisation which in Svitolina’s case, it could be argued she’s been playing at such a high level this season that eventually something was to give. I do not see this as a bad metric on her behalf, but something that was anticipated to happen at this stage in the season.
The analytics accounted for some players that looked to be playing well leading into the Championships but fell early. Former Top 10 players like Zheng, Andreescu and Haddad Maia, in form Potapova, Vekic, Tomljanovic, Boulter and Stearns, or players like Siegemund who’ve had a solid run on the grass previously but none of these players made it past the 1st Round — contributing towards the lower cumulative rate. Collectively, the 1st Round analytics scored 67%— much lower than I’d prefer but higher than the French Open at the same stage. Yes, there’s something in the water this season.
The 2nd Round Review
As far as the 2nd Round was concerned, most players per ranking progressed to the 3rd Round irrespective of the analytics suggesting the lower ranked players may have a chance. Parks for example was favoured over Sawangkaew but she held her form from her win over Chwalinska. Similarly, up and coming Bartunkova coming through, or the biggest upset of the 2nd Round would be 2024 Wimbledon Champion Krejcikova who’s unseeded, taking out Andreeva. Not that surprising when you look at their historical records but also could have very well been a Round of 16 match if Krejcikova’s ranking hadn’t regressed the last two seasons primarily due to injury.
Maria was given a chance to progress alike Siegemund with a solid grass court track record last season but Jovic was too good — on paper and per rankings, Jovic was the favourite. The biggest win that really almost wasn’t was Gauff and Sierra who was up 7-5 I recall in the third set tiebreak before Gauff clawed her way back. It’ll be interesting what form Gauff whips up in the next few rounds and if she can find her form.
Snigur kept her form when it was thought perhaps she’d drop off the level she played against Svitolina, meanwhile it was the opposite for Joint who wasn’t able to hold her level she played against S. Williams — although did in the first set, before Eala was given the opportunity to take control of the match. Overall, the 2nd Round achieved a 78% against the predictive analytics with more players maintaining their anticipated form.
What to Watch Out for in the 3rd Round?
Out of 32 seeds, 22 are left in the 3rd Round (69%) which almost corresponds with the 1st Round metrics. Alike the predictive analytics thus far, my 3rd Round players will follow the pattern — not all higher seeds are favoured. There will be at least one new Round of 16 player — Snigur or Krueger. All other 3rd Round encounters have at least one player who has made the Round of 16 at a Grand Slam previously and/or is anticipated to i.e. Bouzkova v Samsonova. A much tighter 3rd Round which should result in a relatively streamlined Round of 16.
- Sabalenka and Ostapenko — how Sabalenka handles the match
- Krejcikova — how is her recovery after taking out Andreeva
- Can Jovic make her maiden Wimbledon Round of 16
- Will Gauff be pushed again or hone her form
- How will Navarro play against Kostyuk and will Kostyuk up the level she found on the clay
- Paolini against Sakkari will be a test for the former finalist
- Eala has a win against Swiatek but this match will tell us how both players are tracking — a danger match
- Anisimova and Keys could go either way with Keys’ recent form more favoured
- Noskova’s movement I’m keen to watch
- Bouzkova for her maiden Round of 16 keeping in mind Samsonova was inside the Top 20 last season
- And whether Mertens can challenge Rybakina.
ATP Tour Analysis
The 1st Round Review
Onto the ATP Tour and the biggest 1st Round upset has to be Shelton who was looking in form leading up to the Championships with a shot at a semifinal with how he was playing, then Ruud although this was anticipated with his match against Hurkacz, Rublev looked to be finding his game again this season so it was surprising to see his early exit, whilst Darderi, Cerundolo and Arnaldi have showed solid recent form so they were not anticipated to exit so early. Alike the WTA Tour, periodisation matters and players who are not conditioned to playing at the highest level at their new baseline (peak) are more likely to regress (fall early) if this isn’t managed accordingly. Unfortunately for these players, their recent form looks as though it wasn’t able to be maintained on the grass and an additional week of down time will serve them best.
Other players who were anticipated to progress include: Mpetshi Perricard who hasn’t been able to maintain the form that saw him rise up the rankings last season, Humbert although I do believe grass historically hasn’t been his favoured surface, and Michelson who has showed signs of a solid progression. Other players like Jodar to Medvedev and Davidovich Fokina were in fact considered to maybe not push through to the 2nd Round although on paper per their rankings, they should — and did. This is simply a pattern that oftentimes results in these outcomes of higher seeded players not maintaining their level when it has been slightly inconsistent during the season and/or is a newfound high (like Jodar). Collectively, the analytics were 64% for the 1st Round with a number of players who did in fact progress were ranked to progress irrespective of the given opportunities for select players.
The 2nd Round Review
Come the 2nd Round this was much tighter again alike the WTA Tour with no significant surprises. Whilst Mensik and Fils did fall this was anticipated. Mochizuki is the breakthrough player as a qualifier, Struff is a seasoned name, Fucsovics, Safiullin and Sonego have all progressed (from recollection) to the Round of 16 at a grand slam previously despite their current rankings whilst Svajda has been able to maintain his French Open form and transition it to the grass which is notable. Largely the 2nd Round played out as anticipated with those that did not progress an underlying explanation is relatively known. Overall, the 2nd Round results scored 81% per the predictive analytics, a tighter score than the French Open and with the WTA Tour sitting at 78% these are the benchmarks typically seen (or greater) as the Championships progress.
What to Watch Out for in the 3rd Round?
On the seed front, 17 remain out of 32 (53%) — much lower than the WTA Tour and adds weight as to why the initial analytics were off course. Unlike the WTA Tour, however, there aren’t as many ‘close encounters’ to watch for due to less seeds in action. Alike the WTA Tour there will be at least one big opening — Bergs and Fery (who was granted a wildcard) with one of these players primed to make their maiden Round of 16 at a grand slam. All other 3rd Round encounters have at least one player who has either made the Round of 16 previously and/or is anticipated to do so i.e. Fonseca and Jodar (as I’m unsure which or if both have yet to progress to this stage at a grand slam previously).
- Will Jodar make his first Wimbledon Round of 16
- How about Hurkacz against Paul with both players former Top 10 but Hurkacz has regressed further back in the rankings as he looks to make his way back (Hurkacz isn’t seeded but has a good shot against Paul)
- What about Fonseca — big news that appears to be overlooked
- And Dimitrov and Berrettini is another turn back the clock moment alike Berrettini’s 1st Round encounter with Wawrinka (a beauty)
- All other 3rd Round encounters should go per the seeding other than Tiafoe given his recent form and if he can maintain that over Bublik
- Quinn could cause an upset since there isn’t that much data yet to go by with Jodar
- Djokovic and if Rinderknech can cause any hiccups
- The same goes for how De Minaur handles Svajda
- Cobolli’s form and whether Khachanov can get the edge
- Whilst Fritz should have a smooth ride alike Zverev and Lehecka BUT players make it to the 3rd Round for a reason.
Closing Thoughts
Whilst nothing is set in stone, I’d like to think the predictive analytics should hold at 80% or higher, but we saw what happened during the French Open which was unprecedented and I’m not about to rule out a number of upsets at this stage when the last four to six weeks both Tours have seen them on full display.
