Category: Open Ed

Now this is where it gets exciting! What I love about the data is how enthralling it really can be.

Let’s start with the good news. Not only was there a 100% rate of accuracy despite the absolute shock from the 1st Round through to the semifinals, both Andreeva and Zverev prevailed as maiden Grand Slam Champions. As for the semifinals, that was a 25% and 50% churn respectively which ironically follows similar patterns of how the data really didn’t fare well this Roland Garros. It’s essential to put into view the role of the data and why this French Open the results were so skewed. First and foremost, players are human which means there’s always a margin of error due to the human condition. This is a really interesting dynamic that can never be accounted for should a player stumble from their current form. There were many breakthrough performances throughout the Championships with both Chwalinska and Cobolli reaching their maiden Grand Slam Final. Sure, Chwalinska’s odds were stacked highly against her but when you take the time to look at her game, it really wasn’t that surprising. When it comes to Cobolli, I think this is where the data didn’t lean heavily enough considering his recent climb (almost) into the Top 10 plus his trajectory. Cobolli was perhaps in peak perform coming into Roland Garros whilst Andreeva was finding her groove and climbing.

Recall in the later episodes of Beyond Top 10 Tennis when Andreeva was flagged to win her maiden Grand Slam this season. Yep, you read that right. Or heard it if you were listening to the episode. Similarly, I’d spoken (and written) about how Andreeva had to hold – to wait until it was her time to claim a Grand Slam similar to how Gauff had to wait. The best news here is that due to Andreeva’s ‘hold’ she’s now increasingly more likely to win another Grand Slam and remain inside the Top 10 (incase there were any doubts).

And this is the power of the data.

When it comes to Zverev, he was always predicted to reach the Finals with Alcaraz out and Sinner in the other half of the draw. Of course, with Sinner’s early exit Zverev did become the favourite. I don’t think anyone would have thought Zverev would be pushed to five by Cobolli, but then again, I’m sure many thought perhaps Zverev would choke and Cobolli would go all the way. We’ve all seen it happen! (Perhaps Zverev would hold the line, done in three?). He did however allow Cobolli back into the match which made it all the more harder for Zverev to inch closer to that Championship win. The fifth set, of course was what was expected.

Chwalinksa had the tournament of her life. With a ranking that will allow her direct entry into Grand Slams and higher tier tournaments, I’m going to be watching closely to see if she holds her newfound baseline.

When Raducanu made her US Open run as well as Fernandez, both were able to hold a Top 30 ranking for some time, but not the results expected of a Grand Slam Champion or Finalist. That said, Fernandez has faired quite well but has been unable to push further towards the Top 15, for example more robustly. Andreescu was a few seasons earlier and unfortunately injuries have plagued the Grand Slam Champion but importantly, soon after her peak performance she wasn’t able to hold onto her Top 10 ranking for more than two seasons which is a critical benchmark.

On a different take, Chwalinka had to face Mertens in the 2nd Round and did not face a seed until the semifinals (Shnaider) then the Final – Andreeva. Interestingly, Andreeva did not face a Top 10 opponent all tournament! Cobolli did face a Top 10 opponent for the first time in the semifinals (Auger-Aliassime) and then Zverev. Noteworthy, Zverev did not face a Top 10 opponent until the Finals (going off seeding)! This does not normally happen. Nope. But this does also highlight how abnormal the 2026 French Open Championships really were.

Now let’s take a closer look at the Round of 16 benchmark and what players were able to hold their level from the 2025 season through to the 2026 Championships. Keep in mind, irrespective of later results, the Round of 16 is a key performance indicator that should be met to align with a player’s fundamental baseline.

On the WTA Tour in 2025 the Round of 16 included: Rybakina, Swiatek, Paolini, Svitolina, Samsonova, Zheng, Keys, Baptiste, Alexandrova, Gauff, Sabalenka, Anisimova, Boisson, Pegula, Andreeva and Kasatkina.

On the ATP Tour in 2025 the Round of 16 included: Popyrin, Paul, Zverev, Griekspoor, Tiafoe, Altmaier, Musetti, Rune, Shelton, Alcaraz, Bublik, Draper, Sinner, Rublev, Norrie and Djokovic.

In bold are all players who advanced to the quarterfinals and in italics are your semifinalists of the 2025 French Open. The respective Finals comprised of Gauff v Sabalenka & Alcaraz v Sinner with Gauff and Alcaraz the eventual Champions. With that out of the way, let’s focus on the 2026 Round of 16 because there’s a significant difference.

2026 WTA Tour: Sabalenka, Osaka, Keys, Shnaider, Potapova, Kalinskaya, Chwalinska, Parry, Svitolina, Bencic, Kostyuk, Swiatek, Andreeva, Teichmann, Cirstea and Wang.

2026 ATP Tour: Cerundolo (CM), Berrettini, Tiafoe, Arnaldi, Auger-Aliassime, Tabilo, Cobolli, Svajda, Mensik, Rublev, Ruud, Fonseca, Jodar, Carreno Busta, De Jong and Zverev.

Five WTA Tour players maintained their baseline in contrast to two ATP Tour players. Of those five, three maintained their quarterfinal baseline and of the two, one maintained their quarterfinal baseline. Both Andreeva and Zverev maintained their 2025 to 2026 quarterfinal and semifinal baseline respectively whilst keeping in mind a Round of 16 benchmark remains firm.

Whilst some players do consistently breach this baseline and achieve a quarterfinal or further result, a Round of 16 correlates with a Top 10 ranking should it be a consistent metric. As such, of the 5 x WTA Tour players and 2 x ATP Tour players, 4 x WTA players were inside the Top 10 prior to the Championship and 1 x ATP player – Sabalenka, Svitolina, Swiatek, Andreeva and Zverev. As such, these five players align with the ruler of the 8% (recall from “How to Develop a Top 10 Tennis Ranking“). Fascinating! And of these 5 players, four are now Grand Slam Champions!

Thirteen of the 2025 WTA Round of 16 players have been previously and/or currently ranked inside the Top 10 in contrast to 7 of those who advanced to the 2026 Round of 16. Twelve of the 2025 ATP Round of 16 players have been previously and/or currently ranked inside the Top 10 in contrast to 8 of those who advanced to the 2026 Round of 16. Collectively, that’s an even twenty per tour across season.

An even split!

Why is this important? Whilst I’ve written about it in my Books (thirteen non-fiction to date), there is no discrepancy between tours. Yes, the Men may regress one season while the Women may follow in the next, there’s always a level of equilibrium which is rather exciting and often overlooked.

Now for the rankings post 2026 Roland Garros!

To begin, let’s narrow in on the Top 10. On the WTA Tour Muchova (10) leads Bencic (11) by less than 60 points, whilst Bencic leads Kostyuk (12) by more than 200. Shnaider (16) is back inside the Top 20 but not at her peak whilst Kalinskaya is back at 20 which also is not her peak. Chwalinksa is unsurprisingly the biggest winner (21) on the verge of the Top 20 and if her ranking did allow her direct entry to Wimbledon (which I believe the 2026 Wimbledon Championships rankings have already been cut off which is grossly unfair if you ask me), we’ll need to wait until the hardcourt season to see if Chwalinska will finish the season inside the Top 20. I’m saying yes. But before I get to the Top 10, let’s look at some interesting numbers. Wang is at 100 (up 48 places) a stark contrast to Chwalinska but deserves an applause. Kenin (103), V Kudermetova (104), Pliskova (106), Haddad Maia (108), Sun (110), Pavlyuchenkova (115), P Kudermetova (121), Zheng (122), Badosa (141), Boisson (155), Andreescu (158), Danilovic (197), E Andreeva (234) and Azarenka (304) is a non-exhaustive list of players that were inside the Top 100, Top 50, Top 20 to Top 10 within the last two seasons and have substantially regressed!

On the same account, two seasons ago Mboko (9) was around (or greater than) those ranking ranges and now remains inside the Top 10 courtesy of limited points to defend in the early part of the season. Due to Svitolina’s strong run last season, she’s ironically back a place (8) whilst Gauff (7) has slipped outside the Top 5 but this was anticipated prior to the Championships. Andreeva (6) has also remained outside the Top 5 irrespective of her maiden Grand Slam win due largely in part to the high level and depth of results she’s achieved so it only reflects slightly in the rankings. Interestingly, the Top 5 largely remains in tack with Anisimova (5) ahead by slightly less than 100 before Pegula (4) is ahead by 200. The gap between Swiatek (3) and the rest is only by a little less than 700 – perhaps the smallest gap we’ve seen in some time. But what’s really interesting is Rybakina’s (2) hold of approximately 1400 points ahead whilst Sabalenka (1) has less than a 1000 point lead. Well within reach.

With Wimbledon now mere weeks away, Swiatek and Anisimova have the most to lose. Should Anisimova fall before the Finals she’ll still comfortably remain inside the Top 10 – but not Top 5. The same applies for Swiatek should she not defend her crown and will regress alike Gauff outside the Top 5, leaving Sabalenka as the only ‘standing’ Top 3 we’ve become accustomed to over the last few seasons. Whilst Pegula’s relentless consistency should see her remain inside the five, noteworthy is Rybakina who doesn’t have as many points to defend until the second half of the season and why she’s actually in prime position to claim the No. 1 ranking should her baseline slightly improve. There are of course other factors to consider but I’ll leave it at that for now!

On the ATP Tour, Cobolli is firmly inside the Top 10. Yes, he was seeded 10 for the French Open but now his ranking reflects this stance. Bublik (11) is out by 600 points, Musetti (16) still within reach of rejoining the Top 10 when he recovers, whilst Mensik (17) is back inside the Top 20 but this is not his career high. Jodar (23) is at a career high and Fonseca (25) is now comfortably inside the Top 30 whilst Paul’s (28) regression continues despite his progression prior to Roland Garros. Arnaldi (34) is perhaps the biggest increase with a 70 point climb but I don’t believe this is his career high alike Berrettini (48) who has rejoined the Top 50 whilst Rune (64) continues to regress whilst he remains out of action. Tsitsipas (84), Popyrin (90), Mpetshi Perricard (93), Hurkacz (96), Wawrinka (110), Draper (112), Thompson (152), Dimitrov (170), Goffin (242), Monfils (259) and Nagal (278) is a non-exhaustive list of players who were ranked inside the Top 100, Top 50, Top 20 to Top 10 this season or within the last two! There are some quite significant regressions from former Top 10 players, for example, which is again noteworthy.

Now let’s narrow in on the Top 10 as asides from Cobolli all players remain in place with perhaps the biggest difference being the switch between Djokovic (7) and Auger-Aliassime (4) who remains a little less than 3000 points behind Zverev. When it comes to Sinner and Alcaraz, both who have dropped significant points, Alcaraz leads Zverev by more than 2500 points and Sinner leads Alcaraz by 3500 points. A big difference. That said, with Alcaraz out of Wimbledon he’ll regress even further and should remain at No. 2 unless Zverev has a solid run on the grass. Yes, there are additional factors to consider but alike the WTA Tour, I’ll best leave it there!

With the significant discrepancies between results over the last fortnight it’s important to consider those who maintained the Round of 16 threshold do in fact remain and align with the 8% – the most powerful predicator of success.

As for the 2026 French Open Champions, both Andreeva and Zverev were on course – their data was on track. No, Chwalinska and Cobolli were not anticipated to make the Finals and in Chwalinska’s case, most likely fall before the 3rd Round. But that wasn’t the case. Similar to Mboko winning Montreal (I believe) and now firmly holding her place inside the Top 10, these breakouts do happen and its now time to look towards the grass and see what anomaly waits us next and which players with the established baseline and peak will take home the 2026 Wimbledon Championships!

Well that didn’t go as planned.

It’s official – new territory is being made and the predictive analytics can explain why these tumbles have been quite widespread. At the same rate these players should be progressing if their form was in alignment with the rankings. Which begs the question and hits with a lighting strike – why the rankings have skewed from recent player performances.

The biggest Round of 16 upset has to be four time defending Champion Swiatek defeated by Kostyuk who is in fact on a new carrier high and has established a new baseline.

Whilst her recent surge in performance was pending a ‘crash’ as is anticipated with each new players peak, this is yet to happen. A very good thing for Kostyuk to align this with a Grand Slam. Pair this with Swiatek’s game literally falling apart with too many unforced errors with her shots flying long to her body simply not moving as needed, Kostyuk used this to her advantage and prevailed. Then there’s Svitolina’s bagel of Bencic in the third. Yes, Bencic was favoured due to Svitolina predicted to fall off her baseline too with a recent surge in performance alike Kostyuk! But she held the line where Bencic was anticipated to push — just like she did in the first and for most of the second before Svitolina dug deep. Bencic simply ran out of gas.

Sabalenka, Andreeva, Kalinskaya and Cirstea did perform as anticipated. That said, Cirstea had to fight off a resurgence from Wang and Kalinskaya and Potapova were barely inseparable — four points I believe separating the two at the end. Osaka was anticipated to put up more of a fight whilst Shnaider stepped it up and Keys ran out of steam in the third. Chwalinska is the biggest anomaly ranked outside the Top 100 prior to the Championships and needed to qualify, playing the most matches than anyone left in either draw!

Zverev held up his end of the bargain despite De Jong’s close attempt in the first but this was by far the smoothest Round of 16 encounter. Yes, Jodar did prevail against the more experienced Carreno Busta who was up two sets to love before Jodar secured the following three. Then Fonseca delivering a significant blow to Ruud’s hopes of another Final’s appearance with three tightly contended sets until the fourth where Fonseca simply brought it home. Big news and a big signal for what’s to come. And then Mensik with another five setter and Rublev unable to get the needed break to close it out. It is however Mensik who’s been the closest to becoming a barrier breaker in recent seasons and Fonseca who has been earmarked as a future barrier breaker.

Arguably, with Jodar’s recent form he’s now on the radar as a potential barrier breaker next season but if he continues to make waves, he may very well join Fonseca in the new teenage surge with Mensik only a year ahead.

Berrettini soldiered through despite Cerundolo almost clinching the third whilst Arnaldi knocked out Tiafoe as expected but it did go the distance without much separation. Auger-Aliassime was perhaps the smoothest contender in contrast to Coboli who couldn’t close it out in three and just scrapped by in four over Svajda.

Whilst the 80% or more can be waved goodbye this Roland Garros, both the WTA Tour and ATP Tour achieved a 50% and 75% turnover respectively. On the WTA Tour: Sabalenka, Kalinskaya, Andreeva and Cirstea — all have made a quarterfinal at a Grand Slam previously. Then there’s the unanticipated but by no means reflective of their standing: Shnaider, Chwalinska, Svitolina and Kostyuk — both Ukrainian’s having reached a quarterfinal previously. Therefore of the 8 remaining 75% have in fact made it this far before and 75% of the predictive semifinalists are still in play and 50% of the finalists. This will be amended shortly. On the ATP Tour: Berrettini, Auger-Aliassime, Cobolli and Zverev — all have made a quarterfinal at a Grand Slam previously. The other half representative of Arnaldi, Mensik, Fonseca and Jodar will all be making their Grand Slam quarterfinal debut. Insofar as the analytics and a 75% accuracy, the semifinalists remain at 75% whilst the predicted finalists are still in action. Interestingly, 75% of the ATP Tour quarterfInalists are in fact seeds with Berrettini and Arnaldi the two outliers. Arguably, with Berrettini’s previous Top 10 standing, Arnaldi is the more significant outlier, similar to that of Chwalinska on the WTA Tour (88%) — the only unseeded player. 

The patterns are clear. With Swiatek and Ruud the biggest surprise exits from the predictive quarterfinalists and semifinalists, the new analytics look like:

Sabalenka v Kalinskaya

Svitolina [NEW] v Andreeva

Berrettini v Auger-Aliassime

Mensik [NEW] v Zverev

The two new entries are somewhat questionable with Kostyuk and Mensik’s respective levels of play. That said, Svitolina is perhaps in the best position of her career to reach a Grand Slam Final in particular with the third set against Bencic. Despite Mensik’s multiple five-setters, Fonseca has also had two of his last three go to five whereas Mensik has reached a career high of 11 before his ranking regressed, highlighting that maybe his level is correlating with his previous ranking high and he can make his maiden Grand Slam semifinal – alike Kalinskaya. That’s the thing, of these players, 75% of the Women and 75% of the Men have been this far before. Only Sabalenka has won a Grand Slam Championship whereas Zverev and Berrettini have been Finalists.

On one of the final episodes of Beyond Top 10 Tennis recall that I did say Andreeva is in form to win her maiden Grand Slam this season and perhaps the 2026 French Open will be her turn. With Swiatek out and not having faced Muchova in the Round of 16, she really is favoured. Yes, Svitolina has a mighty chance so it is genuinely hard to seperate the two.

Svitolina has experience and form on her side, but if the data is anything to go by Andreeva is on a similar trajectory to where Gauff was before she won her maiden Grand Slam. In other words, her time has arrived.

But this French Open has proved to not align with the anticipated 80% which means perhaps an anomaly in Shnaider, Chwalinska, Kostyuk and/or Cirstea will find themselves in the Final. That said, Sabalenka has held form and it’s going to take a lot to bother her. Likewise, Andreeva has similarly held her level all fortnight so she’ll be near equally as hard to pass. Either way, we’ll find out in the coming days.

Does Zverev have his best chance to win a Grand Slam? The obvious answer is yes but that’s also discounting Auger-Aliassime’s climb back into the Top 10 last season and how well he’s been playing. Yes, Felix almost bowed out in the 1st Round with three four setters followed by a straight sets win whereas Zverev has only been pushed to four once. Could Mensik upset Zverev in the semifinals? There’s a chance. Could Cobolli topple Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals? Maybe. And perhaps Arnaldi defeats Berrettini who’s simply got an empty tank.

There are a number of factors to consider here but still, Zverev and Auger-Aliassime should progress. Yet this French Open, many shoulds have been pushed aside.

With the final eight set and the final four across both draws shared, it’s now a question of whether the data holds and the predictive analytics run their course. Or whether the near-guaranteed anomaly comes to the surface. What is guaranteed, however, is that there will be NEW Roland Garros Champions crowned and at least one new Grand Slam Finalist — on the WTA Tour, and should Berrettini fall short, a new Grand Slam Finalist on the ATP Tour as a minimum.

Of course, should Sabalenka or Zverev fall before the final hurdle, I’ll throw my hands up — it’s anyone’s taking. 

Circus is perhaps one of a few select words that come to mind over the course of the last three days. That’s not even taking into account what has happened in the earlier Rounds. With all 2nd Round and 3rd Round matches now complete, the Round of 16 is set and the metrics shared pre–Day 5 are a far cry from what should be unfolding if the Top 10 players in the world — along with the Top 20 in all fairness, did in fact correlate with their ranking.

Which brings a number of issues to light.

Recall the 2024 Season when the WTA Tour went through quite the disruption i.e. a number of seasoned Top 10 players simply regressed quite substantially. Then the 2025 Season did see some consolidation on the WTA Tour whilst the ATP Tour was due for its turn. It happened, but perhaps not as drastically. As in, two to three players opposed to four to five players in reality.

But at the top echelon of play, it’s the micro percentages that tell quite the significant story if you’re paying close attention. 

Come mid-way through the 2025 Season towards the beginning of the 2026 Season, both Tours had reached a relative level of consolidation as far as the Top 10 were concerned with that elusive 2% still ready to be displaced. Yes, remember the rule of the 8% — those who stay, over the 2% which we have seen range towards 5% over the last two seasons due to this consolidation phase. 

With that out of the way, the ATP Tour has not seen this level of disruption pre-Round of 16 for some time. Whilst I could go back through the last 4-5 seasons and give you an explicit answer, I won’t be doing that. Let me know instead! We have seen similar disruptions on the WTA Tour but in all fairness, the WTA Tour is fairing much much better. When I outlined the potential Round of 16 across both tours half-way through the 2nd Round, I don’t think anyone would foresee next to all Top 10 seeds tumble.

Sinner out. Shelton out. De Minaur out. Djokovic out. Zverev and Auger-Alliassime are the sole Top 10 survivors. And it’s only the Round of 16. In contrast, Sabalenka, Svitolina, Swiatek and Andreeva still remain. Double that of the ATP Tour but still, the WTA Tour has still been shaken.

To get it out of the way, Round of 16 success metrics: Sabalenka, Osaka, Keys, Shnaider, Kalinskaya, Svitolina, Bencic, Swiatek, Kostyuk, Andreeva and Cirstea. That’s 11 out of a possible 16 with Gauff, Mertens, Anisimova, Muchova and Starodubtseva falling short. That’s 11% short of 80% at 69% which itself shows an alarming rate of disassociation between a players level of play and their performance. Too many Top 10 players on the WTA Tour have not been able to establish and maintain their baseline which should hold until the Round of 16 when they’re more pressed to play another player ‘ranked’ inside the Top 16 if the seeds fall into place.

But to be frank, this rarely happens albeit it should if players are holding their own.

Which means these 11 players have performed more robustly despite the pressure and in respect to the Top 10 FOUR remain and again, this is the Round of 16 not the semifinals! Interestingly, of those 11 four have won Grand Slams: Swiatek, Sabalenka, Osaka and Keys. Svitolina and Andreeva have been ranked inside the Top 10 for more than a season (an important metric). Bencic has been ranked inside the Top 10 and simply is just outside (post-French Open she’ll be back inside the Top 10). Then there’s Shnaider and Kalinskaya who were both penned to become barrier breakers during the 2025 Season if their performances continued to progress. Both ironically regressed until now – we’re seeing a change in their respective curves. And then there’s Kostyuk and Cirstea, both coming off career and ranking highs. It is questionable how far their newfound high will last before the eventually drop when the new baseline is formed. That’s a lot to consider.

Tiafoe, Auger-Aliassime, Coboli, Ruud, Jodar, Carreno Busta and Zverev. That’s 7 out of a possible 16. Truthfully, this has not happened before (in the timespan of the data). The metrics can have mishaps but not like this meaning we need to dive deeper. At 44% there’s a lot to uncover. But I don’t want to take away from the remaining 7 and Zverev’s best chance to win a Grand Slam since he faced Thiem in the US Open Championships. Both Zverev and Ruud are the only players who have been Grand Slam Finalists. Tiafor and Auger-Aliassime have both been semifinalists. Coboli is on a new career high — ranking and performance, as is Jodar who’s recent rise is being solidified with his now Round of 16 debut. Carreno Busta is a former Top 10 player and former. Which means 63% of your Round of 16 actually have been there before in contrast to 81% on the WTA Tour (despite current rankings!).

What’s interesting is that there are similar patterns emerging.

Kostyuk and Coboli, Cirstea and Carreno Busta, Tiafoe and Kalinskaya, Auger-Aliassime and Andreeva, although I’m hesitant then to pair the likes of Ruud and Zverev since these players are Finalists and Swiatek, Sabalenka, Osaka and Keys are Grand Slam Champions in their own right. Then there’s also Shnaider, Svitolina and Bencic. Perhaps Svitolina and Zverev align with their consistency, similar to say Ruud and Bencic who whilst consistent have had some results this reason push them either outside the Top 10 (Bencic) or Top 20 (Ruud) before regaining their current form. Either way, there are similarities here whether you choose to see them or not.

Now for those who were not anticipated and the spread of anomalies to make their way into the Round of 16 at the 2026 French Open Championships on the WTA Tour: Potapova (after taking out Gauff), Parry (after taking out Anisimova), Chwalinska (defeated Mertens in the 2nd Round whilst Sakkari defeated Noskova in the 1st Round), Teichmann (defeating Muchova), Cirstea (while mentioned, she defeated Sierra who defeated Paolini in the 2nd Round), and Wang (who defeated Starodubtseva, who defeated Rybakina in the 2nd Round). Of these players, 4 are not seeds: Chwalinska, Parry, Teichmann and Wang — all but Teichmann of whom are making their maiden Round of 16 appearance at a Grand Slam and can therefore expect a nice jump in their ranking after the Championships. As for the ATP Tour, the list is greater: JM Cerundolo (who defeated Sinner in the 2nd Round), Berrettini (defeated Comesana who defeated Darderi in the 2nd Round), Arnaldi (defeated Collignon who defeated Shelton in the 2nd Round), Tabilo (defeated Vacherot in the 2nd Round), Svajda (defeated Walton in the 2nd Round who defeated Medvedev in the 1st Round), Mensik (defeated De Minaur), Rublev (defeated Borges), Fonseca (defeated Djokovic) and De Jong (defeating Khachanov). Of these players, 7 are not seeds: JM Cerundolo, Berrettini (former Grand Slam Finalist), Arnaldi, Tabilo, Svajda, Carreno Busta and De Jong — all other than Berrettini, Arnaldi and Carreno Busta are making their debut into the Round of 16 at a Grand Slam. Big range of abnormalities that are significantly more than a 20% churn in the analytics.

So what does the Round of 16 hold for the WTA Tour?

5 x matches are seeds facing seeds.

2 x matches are one seed facing an unseeded opponent.

1 x match is the anomaly with no seeds in play.

What about the ATP Tour?

2 x matches are seeds facing seeds.

5 x matches are one seed facing an unseeded opponent.

1 x match is the anomaly with no seeds in play.

See the pattern?

What about the predictive analytics? I do want to be cautious since the 2026 French Open has been a bloodbath. That said, on the WTA Tour 5 of the 8 Quarter-fInalists are still in play and 2 of the 4 Semi-finalists named. On the ATP Tour, 5 of the 8 Quarter-fInalists are still in play and 2 of the 4 Semi-finalists named. But things have since changed. Considering the newfound landscape of both respective draws, here’s what I’m gauging:

WTA Tour Quarter-finals: Sabalenka v Keys; Kalinskaya [NEW] v Parry [NEW]; Bencic v Swiatek; Andreeva [NEW] v Cirstea.

WTA Tour Semi-finals? Sabalenka v Kalinskaya [NEW]; Swiatek v Andreeva [NEW].

Finals? I’ll still stand by Swiatek v Sabalenka.

ATP Tour Quarter-finals: Berrettini [NEW] v Arnaldi [NEW]; Auger-Aliassime v Coboli; Rublev [NEW] v Ruud; Jodar v Zverev.

ATP Tour Semi-finals? Berrettini (little bias here) [NEW] v Auger-Aliassime; Ruud [NEW] v Zverev.

Finals? I’ll stick with those who are ranked inside the Top 5: Auger-Aliassime v Zverev.

Champions? This is purely subjective now but who can’t go past Swiatek claiming another crown and Zverev finally securing his maiden Grand Slam. Then again, for Felix to break through would be well deserved with the year he’s had and you can never write off Sabalenka. Let’s see. Remember, we’re only half way through the Championships so a lot is bound to still change! Until then, let’s see who remains, who falls and which anomaly pushes through. If anythings for sure, by seasons end we will have new barrier breakers and the rule of the 8% will be firmly in tact with the real consolidation process under way. Unfortunately for the players, it’s happening right here. Right now. In the first week of a Grand Slam. No one ever said timing is/was perfect.

It hasn’t even been a fortnight and I’m itching to record Episode 201 of Beyond Top 10 Tennis! But I did say Episode 200 was a wrap – for now, so that’s what I’ll try to stick with. For now. So let’s dive into what’s front and centre on my mind: 2026 Roland Garros! On the WTA Tour, leading up to the Championships, Svitolina defeated Gauff in a tight three setter in Rome, followed by Navarro finding her form again to bring home Strasbourg – another tight three setter over Mboko who continues to maintain the form that has allowed to take up shop this season in the Top 10. On the ATP Tour Sinner appears unstoppable with a straight sets win over Ruud – but it was close and a very good indicator for Ruud with his strengths on the clay, whilst Buse (qualifier) triumphed over Paul – similar to Navarro, finding that form that allowed him to reside inside the Top 10 last season, in Hamburg as Tien notched Geneva defeating Navone in a close three. No big shocks but good to see players re-finding their form to others steamrolling ahead. None of these metrics, however, have much to do with the initial rounds of the French Open.

It’s Day 5 but play is yet to get underway. Which means 4 days – all 1st Round and one side of the draw for 2nd Round results. But that has been enough for me to want to share some already significant insights. Let’s get down to it.

On the Women’s side, Bucsa fell first round meaning Sabalenka won’t face a seed until the Round of 16! Right below are blockbuster 2nd Round encounters: Jovic v Navarro (due to recent rankings regression) and Vekic v Osaka which 18 months ago would have been more dangerous but Vekic did win Silver in Paris! That’s not a stat to forget. Mboko and Keys are on a 3rd Round collision course which will be big considering Keys’ regression outside the Top 10 and Mboko’s form. Keys has to have the upper hand, however, even though Mboko is in form. It’ll be interesting to say the least. And now for the biggest opening.

With Pegula knocked out Shnaider is favoured to make her Round of 16 debut (fact check here as I’m not 100% it is her maiden).

Gauff’s section seems untroubled whilst instead of meeting Alexandrova in the Round of 16, her first round exit opens the draw for former Top 15 player Kalinskaya to push to another Round of 16 (perhaps her second since her maiden debut at the Australian Open a few summer’s ago). Also keep in mind last year’s semifinalist Boisson fell to Kalinskaya first round so her ranking will undoubtedly regress around that 100 range post-Open. The next big name to fall is Noskova – Sakkari’s re-found form this season getting her the win, but that means with Zheng also falling first round, Mertens is favoured for a Round of 16 place to likely take on Anisimova. Then we get to Svitolina’s section who scraped by in the first round and won’t see a seed until the Round of 16 who’ll likely play Bencic who won’t have Tauson in her way – another seed fallen early.

Kostyuk won’t have a seed until the Round of 16 with Fernandez out early but she’s on a collision course with Swiatek who’s dodged a bullet with Ostapenko falling in the second round who holds the upper hand in their head to head.

Andreeva will have a seed in Bouzkoka in the third and is really the only section of the draw that still holds its strength. With Samsonova out early, Muchova won’t see a seed until the Round of 16 and with Paolini falling in the second, Cirstea has a dream run to the Round of 16! And that’s not even the real kicker. With Baptiste and Rybakina falling in the second, that makes Cirstea the only seeded player in the bottom half of the draw to push to a maiden Quarterfinal at a Grand Slam at 36 years of age. Not too shabby.

But, the bloodbath of results has already commenced!

Round of 16 predictive analytics suggests at this point:

Sabalenka v Osaka/Jovic (leaning towards Jovic) = Sabalenka QF = SF

Keys v Shnaider (but that means Mbkoko drops form) = Keys QF

Gauff v Kalinskaya = Gauff QF = SF

Mertens v Anisimova = Anisimova QF

Svitolina v Bencic = Bencic QF

Kostyuk v Swiatek = Swiatek QF = SF

Andreeva v Muchova = Muchova QF = SF

Cirstea v Starodutseva (breakout anomaly!) = Cirstea QF

BUT keep in mind Day 5 still needs to get under way, these Round of 16 results are a baseline and typically 80% will take their places and the other 20% will fall short. Similarly, the Quarterfinals are a bit iffy with Mboko, Shanider, Anisimova, Svitolina, Switaek and Andreeva for example – all these players have question marks over their current form and more matches, more results are needed for a more precise measure.

But on paper, the semifinals should line up. With no Pegula or Rybakina, Svitolina is next per ranking but my concern is perhaps too much, too soon which could give Bencic the edge. Simiar with Andreeva, Muchova appears to be edging slightly but it’s tough to call whilst Cirstea is looking at being the breakout Quarterfinalist at this stage. Phew!

On the Men’s side, Sinner won’t see a seed until the Round of 16 with Darderi holding up his end at this point although with Bublik falling early, it opened the section for Tiafoe or Hurkacz to likely play Shelton in the Round of 16 who won’t face a seed until then (should Tiafoe progress). Auger-Aliassime’s section is still in tact – barely surviving the first and will likely play Vacherot, a maiden Grand Slam Round of 16, who won’t play a seed until then with Norrie retiring early. Cobolli v Tien for the third round at this stage but the following section is wide open with Medvedev falling giving Cerundolo an opening for the Round of 16. De Minaur has a hurdle in Mensik in the third but after Mensik’s five setter, Alex will have the fresher legs whilst Rublev* is favoured to push to the Round of 16 and only then face a seed.

Ruud and Paul will be the biggest third round matchup with both players arguably in form, although the edge goes to Ruud despite his first round five-setter.

And then there’s Djokovic who should pass Fonseca and instead of facing Fritz in the Round of 16 will come up against first-time seed Jodar (most likely). But then with Davidovich Fokina falling in the second and Lehecka in the first, former Top 20 player Carreno Busta is favoured over Tirante as the Round of 16 anomaly. Then with Fils’ late withdrawal, Khachanov won’t play a seed until the Round of 16 which will likely be Zverev who’ll also dodge a seed until then.

Round of 16 predictive analytics suggests at this point:

Sinner v Darderi = Sinner QF = SF

Tiafoe / Hurkacz v Shelton = Shelton QF

Auger-Aliassime v Vacherot = Auger-Aliassime QF = SF

Coboli v Cerundolo = Cerundolo QF

De Minaur v Borges (sure, could be Rublev* but Borges could cause trouble) = De Minaur QF = SF

Ruud v Djokovic (although Paul could push Ruud, it’ll be interesting to watch!) = Ruud QF

Jodar v Carrero Busta (anomaly!) = Jodar QF

Khachanov v Zverev = Zverev QF = SF

Okay hear me out: Sinner looks like he’s on a clear course to the final. Shelton did have clay form at the beginning of the clay season (not that long ago) so let’s see if it reappears to push him to the semifinals.

Felix was red-hot last season and has showed similar signs this season but has fallen short, however, with Cerundolo solid on the clay I want to give him a shot and then for Felix to use his expeience to his advantage.

The De Minuar should be able to get to the quarterfinals if he doens’t allow his opponents to push him to five and then when he plays Ruud he could have the edge if Djokovic pushes him to five! Of course Djokovic could prevail and end up facing Zverev in the semifinals. The Jodar v Carreno Busta is the biggest anomaly and Zverev has zero excuses to not make the semifinals.

Alike the Women’s draw, you’ve got 3 x Top 5 players in the Semifinals and 1 x Top 10 with the primary difference is that De Minaur is yet to progress past a Quarterfinal whilst Muchova has made a Grand Slam Final. But again, these are very early analytics and they are predictive for a reason. Again, 80% will have a healthy churn whilst 20% fall short. Sometimes there’s a metric that falls in between. But right now if you ask me who’s going to be crowned, I’ll be bias. Swiatek and Sinner. But also, their respective forms really are on song. Who’ll make the Final?

I want to give Zverev another shot at a Final and the Grand Slam Final we all have been waiting for: Swiatek v Sabalenka. One can only hope.

Until then, let’s see how it pans out and I may very well write another snippet about how and/or why all of these results prevailed and/or fell drastically by the wayside.