The 2024 US Open Championships are now done. Dusted. Complete. Were the winnings that surprising? Not really. Were the finalists surprising? You bet. Oh, and did some of the BEST players in the world suffer early exists, yes. That is what is more interesting.
The World No. 2 and No. 1 on the WTA and ATP tours, respectively, claimed the final Grand Slam of the season. A third for Sabalenka and a second for Sinner. Both of these players achieving ‘replicated success’ as I’ve not only theorised but repeatedly scientifically established throughout my 11 x Books (there’s 12, but 11 are non-fiction). The interesting part really is about why and how. Neither of these players played the Olympics and both of these players had ‘injury’ timeouts — but not significant enough to take them away from competition for more than 2-3 weeks. In other words, not that serious despite the hype.
A reward, nonetheless, was to come. This served as a huge ‘rest’ period for both players whereby the likes of Swiatek and Alcaraz both played the Olympics and won Bronze and Silver, respectively, and both Won the 2024 French Open and went on to play Wimbledon — Alcaraz winning there, too. An absolute huge season for both.
Needless to say, seeing both of these No. 1 players fall early (now Alcaraz has been pushed back to No. 3 which really should be No. 2), it goes to show what a little extra time off can achieve.
But then come the Finalists. Pegula missed the French Open. Fritz was in. Fritz started the year inside the Top 10 but per our data, he was pushed out. Another win for the data I I’ve developed over the past 20+ years. Pegula, nonetheless, should have been pushed out of the Top 10 but for some reason, this wasn’t the case. The results didn’t add up. Arguably, if Pegula didn’t have that Top 10 ranking for the US Open that Finalist result may not have been. But, most importantly Pegula was on fire.
Where did this come from? Near zero fire all season and then all of a sudden, the lights turned on. It happens. And with all of that added time off, Pegula was the opposite of burnt out. Fresh and raring to go allowed Pegula her first semi-final & final at the Grand Slam stage. Fritz on the other hand was a little surprising but really, how the draw panned out, not so much. The draw in fact worked for Fritz and he took the advantage unlike other players.
It’s relatively easy to note that the 2024 season has now been the pinnacle for Sabalenka and Sinner with 2 x Grand Slams. But what’s also forgotten, is that Alcaraz has won 2 x Grand Slams this season plus a Silver medal. And whilst Swiatek has 1 x Grand Slam and a Bronze medal, she has taken zero periods away from tour this season. Of course, there have been moments where the traditional ‘rest’ period is taken before and/or after Grand Slams, but arguably Swiatek has had a heavy season and also, Alcaraz slightly more so than Sinner.
Unfortunately come the tail-end of the season, some players may suffer simply from burn out irrespective of how good they are. Others, if they’ve been lucky enough to take advantage of a niggle here and there and take the time away, it seems as though this season, it really has been quite obvious how that has worked in their favour.
By no means is this said to take away from our newly crowned Champions, not at all, although to make it clear that the load of the 2024 season has been immense and Top 10 players are human, too and will respond to increased loads over time like any human — worn out and in much need of rest.
Of course, the 2024 season isn’t over even though the Grand Slams are, and I for one am looking forward to the upcoming weeks to see if our current No. 1’s remain at the top or if Sabalenka manages to ‘just’ overtake Swiatek, or if Alcaraz edges closer to Sinner.
Tune in to this Week’s episode on Beyond Top 10 Tennis — episode #121 for further insights.
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