It hasn’t even been a fortnight and I’m itching to record Episode 201 of Beyond Top 10 Tennis! But I did say Episode 200 was a wrap – for now, so that’s what I’ll try to stick with. For now. So let’s dive into what’s front and centre on my mind: 2026 Roland Garros! On the WTA Tour, leading up to the Championships, Svitolina defeated Gauff in a tight three setter in Rome, followed by Navarro finding her form again to bring home Strasbourg – another tight three setter over Mboko who continues to maintain the form that has allowed to take up shop this season in the Top 10. On the ATP Tour Sinner appears unstoppable with a straight sets win over Ruud – but it was close and a very good indicator for Ruud with his strengths on the clay, whilst Buse (qualifier) triumphed over Paul – similar to Navarro, finding that form that allowed him to reside inside the Top 10 last season, in Hamburg as Tien notched Geneva defeating Navone in a close three. No big shocks but good to see players re-finding their form to others steamrolling ahead. None of these metrics, however, have much to do with the initial rounds of the French Open.
It’s Day 5 but play is yet to get underway. Which means 4 days – all 1st Round and one side of the draw for 2nd Round results. But that has been enough for me to want to share some already significant insights. Let’s get down to it.
On the Women’s side, Bucsa fell first round meaning Sabalenka won’t face a seed until the Round of 16! Right below are blockbuster 2nd Round encounters: Jovic v Navarro (due to recent rankings regression) and Vekic v Osaka which 18 months ago would have been more dangerous but Vekic did win Silver in Paris! That’s not a stat to forget. Mboko and Keys are on a 3rd Round collision course which will be big considering Keys’ regression outside the Top 10 and Mboko’s form. Keys has to have the upper hand, however, even though Mboko is in form. It’ll be interesting to say the least. And now for the biggest opening.
With Pegula knocked out Shnaider is favoured to make her Round of 16 debut (fact check here as I’m not 100% it is her maiden).
Gauff’s section seems untroubled whilst instead of meeting Alexandrova in the Round of 16, her first round exit opens the draw for former Top 15 player Kalinskaya to push to another Round of 16 (perhaps her second since her maiden debut at the Australian Open a few summer’s ago). Also keep in mind last year’s semifinalist Boisson fell to Kalinskaya first round so her ranking will undoubtedly regress around that 100 range post-Open. The next big name to fall is Noskova – Sakkari’s re-found form this season getting her the win, but that means with Zheng also falling first round, Mertens is favoured for a Round of 16 place to likely take on Anisimova. Then we get to Svitolina’s section who scraped by in the first round and won’t see a seed until the Round of 16 who’ll likely play Bencic who won’t have Tauson in her way – another seed fallen early.
Kostyuk won’t have a seed until the Round of 16 with Fernandez out early but she’s on a collision course with Swiatek who’s dodged a bullet with Ostapenko falling in the second round who holds the upper hand in their head to head.
Andreeva will have a seed in Bouzkoka in the third and is really the only section of the draw that still holds its strength. With Samsonova out early, Muchova won’t see a seed until the Round of 16 and with Paolini falling in the second, Cirstea has a dream run to the Round of 16! And that’s not even the real kicker. With Baptiste and Rybakina falling in the second, that makes Cirstea the only seeded player in the bottom half of the draw to push to a maiden Quarterfinal at a Grand Slam at 36 years of age. Not too shabby.
But, the bloodbath of results has already commenced!
Round of 16 predictive analytics suggests at this point:
Sabalenka v Osaka/Jovic (leaning towards Jovic) = Sabalenka QF = SF
Keys v Shnaider (but that means Mbkoko drops form) = Keys QF
Gauff v Kalinskaya = Gauff QF = SF
Mertens v Anisimova = Anisimova QF
Svitolina v Bencic = Bencic QF
Kostyuk v Swiatek = Swiatek QF = SF
Andreeva v Muchova = Muchova QF = SF
Cirstea v Starodutseva (breakout anomaly!) = Cirstea QF
BUT keep in mind Day 5 still needs to get under way, these Round of 16 results are a baseline and typically 80% will take their places and the other 20% will fall short. Similarly, the Quarterfinals are a bit iffy with Mboko, Shanider, Anisimova, Svitolina, Switaek and Andreeva for example – all these players have question marks over their current form and more matches, more results are needed for a more precise measure.
But on paper, the semifinals should line up. With no Pegula or Rybakina, Svitolina is next per ranking but my concern is perhaps too much, too soon which could give Bencic the edge. Simiar with Andreeva, Muchova appears to be edging slightly but it’s tough to call whilst Cirstea is looking at being the breakout Quarterfinalist at this stage. Phew!
On the Men’s side, Sinner won’t see a seed until the Round of 16 with Darderi holding up his end at this point although with Bublik falling early, it opened the section for Tiafoe or Hurkacz to likely play Shelton in the Round of 16 who won’t face a seed until then (should Tiafoe progress). Auger-Aliassime’s section is still in tact – barely surviving the first and will likely play Vacherot, a maiden Grand Slam Round of 16, who won’t play a seed until then with Norrie retiring early. Cobolli v Tien for the third round at this stage but the following section is wide open with Medvedev falling giving Cerundolo an opening for the Round of 16. De Minaur has a hurdle in Mensik in the third but after Mensik’s five setter, Alex will have the fresher legs whilst Rublev* is favoured to push to the Round of 16 and only then face a seed.
Ruud and Paul will be the biggest third round matchup with both players arguably in form, although the edge goes to Ruud despite his first round five-setter.
And then there’s Djokovic who should pass Fonseca and instead of facing Fritz in the Round of 16 will come up against first-time seed Jodar (most likely). But then with Davidovich Fokina falling in the second and Lehecka in the first, former Top 20 player Carreno Busta is favoured over Tirante as the Round of 16 anomaly. Then with Fils’ late withdrawal, Khachanov won’t play a seed until the Round of 16 which will likely be Zverev who’ll also dodge a seed until then.
Round of 16 predictive analytics suggests at this point:
Sinner v Darderi = Sinner QF = SF
Tiafoe / Hurkacz v Shelton = Shelton QF
Auger-Aliassime v Vacherot = Auger-Aliassime QF = SF
Coboli v Cerundolo = Cerundolo QF
De Minaur v Borges (sure, could be Rublev* but Borges could cause trouble) = De Minaur QF = SF
Ruud v Djokovic (although Paul could push Ruud, it’ll be interesting to watch!) = Ruud QF
Jodar v Carrero Busta (anomaly!) = Jodar QF
Khachanov v Zverev = Zverev QF = SF
Okay hear me out: Sinner looks like he’s on a clear course to the final. Shelton did have clay form at the beginning of the clay season (not that long ago) so let’s see if it reappears to push him to the semifinals.
Felix was red-hot last season and has showed similar signs this season but has fallen short, however, with Cerundolo solid on the clay I want to give him a shot and then for Felix to use his expeience to his advantage.
The De Minuar should be able to get to the quarterfinals if he doens’t allow his opponents to push him to five and then when he plays Ruud he could have the edge if Djokovic pushes him to five! Of course Djokovic could prevail and end up facing Zverev in the semifinals. The Jodar v Carreno Busta is the biggest anomaly and Zverev has zero excuses to not make the semifinals.
Alike the Women’s draw, you’ve got 3 x Top 5 players in the Semifinals and 1 x Top 10 with the primary difference is that De Minaur is yet to progress past a Quarterfinal whilst Muchova has made a Grand Slam Final. But again, these are very early analytics and they are predictive for a reason. Again, 80% will have a healthy churn whilst 20% fall short. Sometimes there’s a metric that falls in between. But right now if you ask me who’s going to be crowned, I’ll be bias. Swiatek and Sinner. But also, their respective forms really are on song. Who’ll make the Final?
I want to give Zverev another shot at a Final and the Grand Slam Final we all have been waiting for: Swiatek v Sabalenka. One can only hope.
Until then, let’s see how it pans out and I may very well write another snippet about how and/or why all of these results prevailed and/or fell drastically by the wayside.
