Well that didn’t go as planned.
It’s official – new territory is being made and the predictive analytics can explain why these tumbles have been quite widespread. At the same rate these players should be progressing if their form was in alignment with the rankings. Which begs the question and hits with a lighting strike – why the rankings have skewed from recent player performances.
The biggest Round of 16 upset has to be four time defending Champion Swiatek defeated by Kostyuk who is in fact on a new carrier high and has established a new baseline.
Whilst her recent surge in performance was pending a ‘crash’ as is anticipated with each new players peak, this is yet to happen. A very good thing for Kostyuk to align this with a Grand Slam. Pair this with Swiatek’s game literally falling apart with too many unforced errors with her shots flying long to her body simply not moving as needed, Kostyuk used this to her advantage and prevailed. Then there’s Svitolina’s bagel of Bencic in the third. Yes, Bencic was favoured due to Svitolina predicted to fall off her baseline too with a recent surge in performance alike Kostyuk! But she held the line where Bencic was anticipated to push — just like she did in the first and for most of the second before Svitolina dug deep. Bencic simply ran out of gas.
Sabalenka, Andreeva, Kalinskaya and Cirstea did perform as anticipated. That said, Cirstea had to fight off a resurgence from Wang and Kalinskaya and Potapova were barely inseparable — four points I believe separating the two at the end. Osaka was anticipated to put up more of a fight whilst Shnaider stepped it up and Keys ran out of steam in the third. Chwalinska is the biggest anomaly ranked outside the Top 100 prior to the Championships and needed to qualify, playing the most matches than anyone left in either draw!
Zverev held up his end of the bargain despite De Jong’s close attempt in the first but this was by far the smoothest Round of 16 encounter. Yes, Jodar did prevail against the more experienced Carreno Busta who was up two sets to love before Jodar secured the following three. Then Fonseca delivering a significant blow to Ruud’s hopes of another Final’s appearance with three tightly contended sets until the fourth where Fonseca simply brought it home. Big news and a big signal for what’s to come. And then Mensik with another five setter and Rublev unable to get the needed break to close it out. It is however Mensik who’s been the closest to becoming a barrier breaker in recent seasons and Fonseca who has been earmarked as a future barrier breaker.
Arguably, with Jodar’s recent form he’s now on the radar as a potential barrier breaker next season but if he continues to make waves, he may very well join Fonseca in the new teenage surge with Mensik only a year ahead.
Berrettini soldiered through despite Cerundolo almost clinching the third whilst Arnaldi knocked out Tiafoe as expected but it did go the distance without much separation. Auger-Aliassime was perhaps the smoothest contender in contrast to Coboli who couldn’t close it out in three and just scrapped by in four over Svajda.
Whilst the 80% or more can be waved goodbye this Roland Garros, both the WTA Tour and ATP Tour achieved a 50% and 75% turnover respectively. On the WTA Tour: Sabalenka, Kalinskaya, Andreeva and Cirstea — all have made a quarterfinal at a Grand Slam previously. Then there’s the unanticipated but by no means reflective of their standing: Shnaider, Chwalinska, Svitolina and Kostyuk — both Ukrainian’s having reached a quarterfinal previously. Therefore of the 8 remaining 75% have in fact made it this far before and 75% of the predictive semifinalists are still in play and 50% of the finalists. This will be amended shortly. On the ATP Tour: Berrettini, Auger-Aliassime, Cobolli and Zverev — all have made a quarterfinal at a Grand Slam previously. The other half representative of Arnaldi, Mensik, Fonseca and Jodar will all be making their Grand Slam quarterfinal debut. Insofar as the analytics and a 75% accuracy, the semifinalists remain at 75% whilst the predicted finalists are still in action. Interestingly, 75% of the ATP Tour quarterfInalists are in fact seeds with Berrettini and Arnaldi the two outliers. Arguably, with Berrettini’s previous Top 10 standing, Arnaldi is the more significant outlier, similar to that of Chwalinska on the WTA Tour (88%) — the only unseeded player.
The patterns are clear. With Swiatek and Ruud the biggest surprise exits from the predictive quarterfinalists and semifinalists, the new analytics look like:
Sabalenka v Kalinskaya
Svitolina [NEW] v Andreeva
Berrettini v Auger-Aliassime
Mensik [NEW] v Zverev
The two new entries are somewhat questionable with Kostyuk and Mensik’s respective levels of play. That said, Svitolina is perhaps in the best position of her career to reach a Grand Slam Final in particular with the third set against Bencic. Despite Mensik’s multiple five-setters, Fonseca has also had two of his last three go to five whereas Mensik has reached a career high of 11 before his ranking regressed, highlighting that maybe his level is correlating with his previous ranking high and he can make his maiden Grand Slam semifinal – alike Kalinskaya. That’s the thing, of these players, 75% of the Women and 75% of the Men have been this far before. Only Sabalenka has won a Grand Slam Championship whereas Zverev and Berrettini have been Finalists.
On one of the final episodes of Beyond Top 10 Tennis recall that I did say Andreeva is in form to win her maiden Grand Slam this season and perhaps the 2026 French Open will be her turn. With Swiatek out and not having faced Muchova in the Round of 16, she really is favoured. Yes, Svitolina has a mighty chance so it is genuinely hard to seperate the two.
Svitolina has experience and form on her side, but if the data is anything to go by Andreeva is on a similar trajectory to where Gauff was before she won her maiden Grand Slam. In other words, her time has arrived.
But this French Open has proved to not align with the anticipated 80% which means perhaps an anomaly in Shnaider, Chwalinska, Kostyuk and/or Cirstea will find themselves in the Final. That said, Sabalenka has held form and it’s going to take a lot to bother her. Likewise, Andreeva has similarly held her level all fortnight so she’ll be near equally as hard to pass. Either way, we’ll find out in the coming days.
Does Zverev have his best chance to win a Grand Slam? The obvious answer is yes but that’s also discounting Auger-Aliassime’s climb back into the Top 10 last season and how well he’s been playing. Yes, Felix almost bowed out in the 1st Round with three four setters followed by a straight sets win whereas Zverev has only been pushed to four once. Could Mensik upset Zverev in the semifinals? There’s a chance. Could Cobolli topple Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals? Maybe. And perhaps Arnaldi defeats Berrettini who’s simply got an empty tank.
There are a number of factors to consider here but still, Zverev and Auger-Aliassime should progress. Yet this French Open, many shoulds have been pushed aside.
With the final eight set and the final four across both draws shared, it’s now a question of whether the data holds and the predictive analytics run their course. Or whether the near-guaranteed anomaly comes to the surface. What is guaranteed, however, is that there will be NEW Roland Garros Champions crowned and at least one new Grand Slam Finalist — on the WTA Tour, and should Berrettini fall short, a new Grand Slam Finalist on the ATP Tour as a minimum.
