This week on Beyond Top 10 Tennis specific players inside the Top 10 on both the WTA and ATP tours were highlighted for various reasons with an emphasis placed on whether or not they were or were not in the running for the second Grand Slam of the season. With Swiatek’s success over the last couple of weeks, it is easy to forget how both Collins and Sakkari have been surging ahead in their own rights and how Sabalenka was with a Championship point to claim the title in Madrid. What Swiatek has been able to accomplish over the best part of the last 6 to 8 weeks plus is nothing shy of remarkable as her statistics continue to climb. This is a timely reminder, however, for each and every one of you that breakthrough’s do happen we do see these players come through at the French which means Swiatek’s next Slam is definitely under threat.
Nevertheless, Swiatek isn’t anything less favourite but Sabalenka has come incredibly close in the past fortnight despite Swiatek taking an even greater advantage in Rome. If anything, it is a timely reminder of how exciting the level and depth of play is on the WTA tour irrespective of the contradictions. Not since the likes of Serena v Venus, or Serena v Azarenka, or Serena succumbing to the level of play from Kerber, Halep to Osaka have we seen this level of play. This isn’t to say that this level has not existed, rather when Serena was at her peak these players were able to deliver on at least one or more occasions on the biggest stages in the world.
Sure, we’ve had a handful of other players deliver over this time but no one has come close to the level of play that Serena brought to life, or for that fact, Federer, Nadal to even Djokovic still, that we have been privy to a player of not simply this level but also how the rivalries continue to keep coming.
Swiatek is not alone. But her statistics do not lie. Sabalenka is close and so is Gauff and Rybakina but Swiatek continues to lead the charge. Yet, it is the closeness of these matches and the continued depth of all four of these players, that relatively align, that are delivering that next level of play. And still, Swiatek stands tall. It’s easy to forget that Swiatek is only 22 and Gauff 20 with both Rybakina and Sabalenka slightly ahead — 24 and 26 respectively, still mere years apart yet not by much. But neither of these players had accomplished this level of success at this age. Gauff is still within reach. But that’s not what this is about.
Whether 22 or 32 it’s the fact of what the data runs home. From heightened performances at Indian Wells to Miami followed by Madrid to Rome, Swiatek is all in. Sakkari and Collins are in the mix. Rybakina has continued to show when her health has been in check. However, Sabalenka only started to deliver in Madrid whereas her previous peak level of play can be tracked back to her Australian Open Win. And that’s what counts — consistency in application.
By all means Swiatek did not start the season on a peak performance run. In all fairness, she did run into Collins in the earlier rounds and that, dare I say, took the wind out of Swiatek before she could think about a Round of 16 result — it just simply wasn’t to be. But since then, Swiatek has been sublime and the only player who comes close is Rybakina. And yet, due to Rybakina not being able to play consistent events due to some ill health, the data continues to point towards Swiatek who is now followed by Sabalenka after the results of the past fortnight — in time for the next Grand Slam of the season.
But don’t be fooled. Of course I’m all in for Swiatek to claim her 5th Grand Slam but on equal accounts when does Swiatek’s tank flip to empty? It’s a careful juggling act that Rybakina and Gauff may very well be favoured to advance and perhaps even Sabalenka. But if the right key patterns are in play then I’d dare say Swiatek may very well be as dangerous on the clay as historically Nadal has been for the best part of the last near 20 years. And that’s saying something.
It would be remiss nonetheless not to highlight the potential anomaly that has silently been tracking forwards. And when I say silently we’re considering players who have still been performing just not at Swiatek’s level. From here, there’s Svitolina to Sakkari and maybe Jabeur will come to the party but even her level of play this season is perhaps akin to Djokovic — simply not apparent. Then there’s Collins to Paolini and whilst Ostenpenko started the 2024 season strong there are simply more players outside the Top 10 than are inside the Top 10 of which have been steadily progressing this season. Now that’s also saying something.
Last but not least, both Osaka and Badosa have had solid wins of late to Shnaider with two titles now this season. There are lesser known players who have been tracking and let’s remember when both Ostenpenko to Krejcikova won their maiden Grand Slam title at the French, neither was expected nor on the radar. But I’ll tell you something right here and now, if there’s a player in the running and they surpass the Round of 16 as a benchmark, our predictive analytics will take them all the way to the Championship courtesy of the 8 Keys.
Which brings us to the ATP tour and the likelihood of Djokovic securing his 25th Grand Slam title. If his most recent results this season are to go by then the answer is quite clear cut — no. If we’re to go by Djokovic’s historical performance then we all know it’s a resounding yes. That said, this will be the first time in perhaps the last 10+ years that Djokovic will not be the hot favourite.
Both Sinner and Alcaraz were out of action the past week. Alcaraz has not been dlivering as consistently this season as Sinner. Then you have the likes of Tsitsipas, Rudd and Zverev who have been. Rublev to Medvedev somewhat, Dimitrov and Hurkacz, too. And that’s the Top 10 for you. Unlike the WTA tour, this French Open is almost up for grabs across this playing field with Sinner the primary player with the advantage. But then again, he’s had a little extra time off. Alcaraz may find that form again from his 2023 season that has allowed him to claim two Grand Slams at such a young age, and perhaps add the French to his collection — or Sinner will even the tally of Slams to match Alcaraz’s haul. It’s quite possible. But I’ll say it now, if Sinner and Alcaraz make the final it’ll have all the ingredients akin to a Nadal v Federer and it’ll be incredibly exciting as the new era is officially well underway.
Similarly, Swiatek v Sabalenka in the final — three times in a row, would be a classic. And these players are all here for it.
And then you have the potential upsets. Paul has been dangerous this season, even more so than Shelton. De Minaur may very well have it in him for a semi-final birth or more. Alex has the game akin to a Chang to Fererro and with that has the legs to simply keep running. Bublik is another player who has made inroads this season and is definitely primed for an additional upset or two of one or more of the Top 10. Whilst a quarter-final may be on the cards, the data doesn’t suggest any further. But there’s always an anomaly and a player who goes above and beyond — whether from an anticipated 1st Round exit through to the 3rd Round, or like this years Australian Open when a number of anomalies appeared in the quarter-finals on the WTA tour and two of these players are now at all time ranking peaks — Kostyuk and Paolini with correlating results unlike Zheng who hasn’t been able to deliver as robust per her Finalist result at the opening Slam of the season.
As for the ATP tour there isn’t so much the argument for this level of progression but there’s depth in the form of the aforementioned dark horses and these threats are real.
If one thing is for sure, I’ll be keeping a close eye on this year’s French Open with the data to lead the way for Paris 2024, Wimbledon to the US Open. But also, with Beyond Top 10 Tennis now officially a centrepiece across all four Grand Slams, this French Open will be the first live recount and I’m equally excited to share. Not simply from a numbers point of view but primarily because I’m witnessing in real-time a genuine unfolding of the current Top 10 to the next crop surging through with key markers underpinning core results and reaffirming over and over again how the 8 Keys remain an absolute. But secretly, I’m also curious to see the next player to achieve replicated success, the next barrier breaker to the next maiden Grand Slam Chamoion as our data is brought to life and continues to underscore these outcomes and who’s who in the running for these identifiers, accomplishments, to nothing short of remarkable feats.
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