AM8 International

🗂️ 📍 Live from AM8 International
📚 Featuring: My [Tennis] Work Book 📘 + My [Tennis] Black Book: Federer, Nadal, Serena, Djokovic 🖤
🎧 Available on Spotify, YouTube & all major podcast platforms

🌟 Short Summary

Welcome to another jam-packed Special Edition of Beyond Top 10 Tennis! 🗽 Your host, Dr. Ashley M. Berge, is back with the “source of truth” for the 2025 US Open, diving deep into the Round 3 results and previewing the Round of 16matchups. This episode is pure data, as Dr. Berge analyzes the predictive analytics penned in the last episode.

The results are in, and the data holds strong! Dr. Berge celebrates an 81% success rate on the WTA side and a 75% rate on the ATP side (which would have been higher if not for two key retirements!). She connects this volatility—especially on the men’s tour—back to the analytics in My [Tennis] Black Book 📓, which predicted the ATP disruption we are seeing right now.

WTA R3 Review: The episode breaks down every R3 match, including the blockbuster Elena Rybakina vs. Emma Raducanu showdown, won by Rybakina. Dr. Berge analyzes Iga Świątek’s nail-biting win over Kalinskaya, Jessica Pegula’s dominant victory over Azarenka, Coco Gauff’s clean win, and the massive upset of (5) Mira Andreeva by Taylor Townsend!

ATP R3 Review: The men’s draw was pure chaos! 🤯 Dr. Berge details all the action, including (6) Holger Rune’s 5-set exit to Jan-Lennard Struff, (15) Frances Tiafoe’s R3 loss, and the shocking 5-set loss by (10) Karen Khachanovto Kamil Majchrzak. The episode also reviews Jannik Sinner’s 4-set battle, Novak Djokovic’s 4-set win, and Carlos Alcaraz’s dominant performance.

Finally, Dr. Berge fills out the bracket and predicts the Quarterfinalists for both tours!

🎙️ Detailed Episode Breakdown

[00:00:00] Welcome & Predictive Analytics Check-In! 📊

Dr. Ashley M. Berge welcomes listeners to this US Open Special Edition, coming live 72 hours after the last episode. All R1 and R2 matches are done, and R3 is now complete. It’s time to review the predictions!

• The Data Doesn’t Lie 🔮: Dr. Berge is thrilled, announcing that the predictive analytics for R3 (penned live in the last episode) were incredibly accurate.
  • WTA: 81% success rate!
  • ATP: 75% success rate! (Dr. Berge notes this would have been 85-90% if not for two crucial player retirements!).
• The Black Book Context [00:01:18.523]: Dr. Berge reminds listeners this chaos was expected. My [Tennis] Black Book 📓 detailed why the ATP tour would see massive seed disruptions this season, mirroring the WTA’s 2024. We’re seeing “50% disruption” in sections of the draw, which is massive!
• Book Check-In 📚: For those following the Black Book, last week was R1/R2 of the US Open. This week, we are in Block 9! It’s time to dive into the new topics, chart work, and, of course, fill out your My [Tennis] Work Book 📘 every single night. The Work Book is your “go-to” journal, the exact tool Dr. Berge uses to guide athletes on their journey to the Top 10.
• New Book Alert! ✍️ [00:06:11.840]: Dr. Berge shares a “fun” update: she has just wrapped the initial drafts of her second fictional book! It will be released in the next couple of months under Pink Octopus Books. But for now, it’s all about the 13 non-fiction, data-driven texts!

[00:07:37] 🗽 WTA US Open: Round 3 Results Review!

Dr. Berge dives into the R3 results, comparing them to her predictions from Ep 176.

• (1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (27) Leylah Fernandez 6-3, 6-7(2), 6-1.
  • Prediction: Sabalenka ✅.
  • Analysis: A “scare” for Sabalenka! Fernandez played lights-out to snatch that second set, but Sabalenka re-established her #1 authority in the third.
• UPSET! 💥 Marie Bouzková def. (19) Elise Mertens 3-6, 7-5, 6-3.
  • Prediction: Mertens ❌.
  • Analysis: This is an upset, but Bouzková has been building momentum (Prague title). Dr. Berge calls her an “anomaly” who has broken through and is playing with huge confidence. This is her first R16 at a Slam!
• (9) Elena Rybakina def. Emma Raducanu 6-4, 7-6.
  • Prediction: 50/50 Call ✅ (Rybakina was the pick).
  • Analysis: The blockbuster R3 lived up to the hype! Raducanu played so well, but Dr. Berge notes Rybakina is just “on fire” and playing “some of the best tennis” of her last 24 months. Rybakina is on the “watch list” for the title 🎯.
• (11) Markéta Vondroušová def. (7) Jasmine Paolini 6-7(4), 6-1, 6-1.
  • Prediction: Paolini ❌.
  • Analysis: Paolini peaked too soon (Cincinnati final). Dr. Berge links this to her “baseline” theory: Paolini pushed above her baseline and couldn’t sustain it, regressing back down. Vondroušová, a Grand Slam champ, capitalized.
• (4) Jessica Pegula def. (17) Victoria Azarenka 6-1, 7-5.
  • Prediction: Pegula ✅.
  • Analysis: A “huge win” for Pegula, who looks incredibly “clean and solid”. Dr. Berge feels Pegula is a “highly likely” semi-finalist from this section.
• Ann Li def. (WC) Priscilla Hon 7-5, 6-3.
  • Prediction: Li ✅.
  • Analysis: The qualifier dream run for Hon ends, but Li (who beat Bencik in R1) continues her fantastic tournament. This guarantees a first-time R16 player!
• (26) Barbora Krejčíková def. (12) Emma Navarro 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.
  • Prediction: 50/50 Call ✅ (Krejčíková was the pick).
  • Analysis: A massive win for Krejčíková! This proves she can “level it still with the best players in the world”. Dr. Berge notes Navarro hasn’t found her groove since breaking the Top 10.
• UPSET! 💥 Taylor Townsend def. (5) Mira Andreeva 7-5, 6-2.
• (28) Marta Kostyuk def. Diane Parry 3-6, 6-4, 6-2.
  • Prediction: Kostyuk ✅.
• (11) Karolína Muchová def. (21) Linda Nosková 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-2.
  • Prediction: 50/50 Call ✅ (Muchová was the pick).
  • Analysis: A 2.5-hour battle! Muchová’s experience won out.
• (23) Naomi Osaka def. (15) Daria Kasatkina 6-0, 4-6, 6-3.
  • Prediction: Osaka ✅ (The predicted upset came true!)
  • Analysis: Osaka is on a roll! Dr. Berge is excited to see her back and finding her confidence.
• (3) Coco Gauff def. Magdalena Fręch 6-3, 6-1.
  • Prediction: Gauff ✅.
  • Analysis: A much “cleaner match” for Gauff. Very solid.
• (4) Amanda Anisimova def. (WC) Jaqueline Cristian 6-4, 4-6, 6-2.
  • Prediction: Anisimova ✅.
  • Analysis: Anisimova was pushed but got the win, backing up her Wimbledon final run.
• (18) Beatriz Haddad Maia def. Maria Sakkari 6-1, 5-2 (live).
  • Prediction: Haddad Maia ✅ (Confirmed from live result).
• (20) Ekaterina Alexandrova def. Laura Siegemund 6-0, 6-1.
  • Prediction: Alexandrova ✅.
  • Analysis: “Huge” dominance from Alexandrova. She looks very dangerous.
• (2) Iga Świątek def. (25) Anna Kalinskaya 7-6(8), 6-4.
  • Prediction: Świątek ✅.
  • Analysis: WHAT. A. MATCH! 😱 Kalinskaya was up 5-2 in the first set and had three set points! Świątek showed “nerves of steel,” 🦾 clawed her way back, and stole the tiebreak. This was an “intense, impressive set of messy tennis”. This match showed Świątek’s serve was off (35%), but her fight was incredible.

[00:20:42] ✍️ WTA Round of 16: PREDICTIONS!

Dr. Berge maps out the Round of 16 and predicts the quarterfinalists!

• (1) Sabalenka vs. Bouzková ➡️ Sabalenka
• (9) Rybakina vs. (11) Vondroušová ➡️ Rybakina (Two Wimbledon champs! 🔥 Dr. Berge favors Rybakina’s current hard-court form).
• (4) Pegula vs. Ann Li ➡️ Pegula
• (26) Krejčíková vs. Taylor Townsend ➡️ Krejčíková (Experience edge).
• (28) Kostyuk vs. (11) Muchová ➡️ 50/50! (Too close, both coming off 3-setters).
• (23) Osaka vs. (3) Gauff ➡️ 50/50! (Dr. Berge is tempted to pick Osaka! 😮).
• (4) Anisimova vs. (18) Haddad Maia ➡️ Anisimova.
• (20) Alexandrova vs. (2) Świątek ➡️ Świątek (But this is the TOUGHEST R16 match. Iga has to play much better).

WTA Seed Check:

• Top Half (Sabalenka/Pegula): Only 3 seeds (Sabalenka, Rybakina, Pegula) made the R16! This section is WIDE OPEN. Pegula is the “red hot” favorite to make the semis.
• Bottom Half (Gauff/Świątek): ALL EIGHT SEEDS are through! 🤯 This is a “brutal” half, stacked with champions and finalists.

[00:29:15] 🗽 ATP US Open: Round 3 Results Review!

Dr. Berge’s ATP predictions hit 75%, only missing R16 upsets (Tiafoe, Zverev, Korda-ret.) and one 50/50 (Rune).

• (1) Jannik Sinner def. (27) Shapovalov 7-5, 6-4, 6-3, 6-3.
  • Prediction: Sinner ✅.
  • Analysis: Sinner had to work for it, pushed to 4 sets, but was “too good”.
• (13) Tommy Paul def. (23) Alexander Bublik 6-7, 7-5, 6-7, 7-6, 6-3.
  • Prediction: 50/50 Call ✅ (Paul was the pick, and he won!)
  • Analysis: Paul won the live 5-setter that was playing during Ep 176!
• (8) Lorenzo Musetti def. (30) Flavio Cobolli (ret.) 6-3, 6-2, 2-0 ret..
  • Prediction: Musetti ✅.
  • Analysis: Unfortunate retirement for Cobolli, who had played two 5-setters to get here.
• Jaume Munar def. (WC) Zizou Bergs 6-1, 6-4, 6-4.
  • Prediction: Munar ✅.
  • Analysis: Munar seizes the open section (Draper’s withdrawal). This sets up a guaranteed first-time R16 player (Munar vs. Musetti).
• UPSET! 💥 (18) Félix Auger-Aliassime def. (3) Alexander Zverev 4-6, 7-6(7), 6-4, 6-4.
  • Prediction: Zverev ❌.
  • Analysis: Huge win for Félix! Dr. Berge notes Zverev seemed to be “cruising” and didn’t have that “extra gear”.
• (7) Andrey Rublev def. (WC) Yunchaokete Bu 6-2, 6-4, 6-4.
  • Prediction: Rublev ✅.
  • Analysis: Rublev is playing “really good tennis” lately, correlating with his ranking.
• (Q) Lukas Riedel def. Kamil Majchrzak (ret.) 5-3 ret..
  • Prediction: Majchrzak ❌ (Retirement).
  • Analysis: An unfortunate end, but Riedel, the qualifier, is through to the R16 in his first Slam!
• (9) Alex de Minaur def. (25) Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4, 7-6(5), 6-4.
  • Prediction: 50/50 Call ✅ (De Minaur was the pick).
  • Analysis: De Minaur gets the win! Tsitsipas’s 5-set R2 match (vs. Altmaier) likely left him gassed.
• (4) Novak Djokovic def. (30) Cameron Norrie 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-2, 6-3.
  • Prediction: Djokovic ✅.
  • Analysis: Norrie bravely snatched a set, but Djokovic’s movement is “incredibly impressive”.
• UPSET! 💥 Jan-Lennard Struff def. (15) Frances Tiafoe 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(7).
  • Prediction: Tiafoe ❌.
  • Analysis: Big upset! Tiafoe, a SF last year, will take a rankings hit.
• Tomáš Macháč def. (WC) Ulises Blanch 6-7, 7-6, 6-4, 7-6.
  • Prediction: Macháč ✅.
  • Analysis: A “cleaner” win than his R2 5-setter.
• (2) Taylor Fritz def. (Q) Ethan Quinn 7-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-4.
  • Prediction: Fritz ✅.
  • Analysis: Fritz got “scraped through”. Dr. Berge is concerned he’s playing too much tennis and relying only on his serve rather than finishing points.
• (5) Ben Shelton def. (22) Jiří Lehečka 6-3, 6-4, 7-6.
  • Prediction: Shelton ✅.
  • Analysis: “Great tennis” from Shelton, who is riding his Montreal/Cincy momentum.
• UPSET! 💥 Arthur Rinderknech def. (Q) Benjamin Bonzi 6-4, 6-3, 6-3.
  • Prediction: Rinderknech ✅.
  • Analysis: Rinderknech stops the qualifier who stunned Medvedev!
• (2) Carlos Alcaraz def. (32) Luciano Darderi 6-2, 6-4, 6-0.
  • Prediction: Alcaraz ✅.
  • Analysis: An hour and 44 minutes. “Clean tennis.” That 6-0 third set shows Alcaraz has “that extra gear” ⚡️.

[00:41:48] ✍️ ATP Round of 16: PREDICTIONS!

• (1) Sinner vs. (13) Paul ➡️ Sinner (Paul is coming off two 5-setters).
• (8) Musetti vs. Munar ➡️ Musetti.
• (18) Auger-Aliassime vs. (7) Rublev ➡️ 50/50! (Dr. Berge is leaning 60/40 to Felix!).
• (Q) Riedel vs. (9) De Minaur ➡️ De Minaur.
• (4) Djokovic vs. Struff ➡️ Djokovic.
• Macháč vs. (2) Fritz ➡️ Fritz (But Dr. Berge is worried Fritz is “toast” 🍞 from playing too many long matches).
• (5) Shelton vs. (22) Lehečka ➡️ Shelton.
• Rinderknech vs. (2) Alcaraz ➡️ Alcaraz.

ATP Seed Check:

• Top Half (Sinner’s): 6 seeds made the R16 (Sinner, Paul, Musetti, Auger-Aliassime, Rublev, De Minaur).
• Bottom Half (Alcaraz’s): Only 5 seeds made the R16 (Djokovic, Macháč, Fritz, Shelton, Alcaraz).
• Conclusion: The ATP draw is far more disrupted (with 5 upsets in R3 alone) than the WTA’s. This confirms Dr. Berge’s analytics: the ATP tour is the volatile one this year.

[00:52:11] Final Thoughts: Potential Quarterfinals

Dr. Berge gives a quick look ahead to the potential QFs based on her R16 picks:

• WTA: (1) Sabalenka vs. (9) Rybakina; (4) Pegula vs. (26) Krejčíková; (28) Kostyuk vs. (3) Gauff (or Osaka!); (4) Anisimova vs. (2) Świątek (Wimbledon Final Rematch!).
• ATP: (1) Sinner vs. (8) Musetti; (18) Auger-Aliassime vs. (9) De Minaur; (4) Djokovic vs. (2) Fritz; (5) Shelton vs. (2) Alcaraz.

Dr. Berge will be back after the R16 to see how the analytics held up!

“Thank you so much for listening. I am so incredibly grateful. I’m your host, Dr. Ashley Morgan Berge, and this is Beyond Top 10 Tennis.”

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🗂️ 📍 Live from AM8 International
📚 Featuring: My [Tennis] Work Book 📘 + My [Tennis] Black Book: Federer, Nadal, Serena, Djokovic 🖤
🎧 Available on Spotify, YouTube & all major podcast platforms

🌟 Short Summary

Welcome to a massive US Open Special Edition! 🗽 Your host, Dr. Ashley M. Berge, is back with a data-packed episode, breaking down all the action from the first two rounds of the 2025 US Open. This episode is your “source of truth,” analyzing the upsets, the dominant performances, and the “predictive analytics” that are unfolding exactly as foretold in My [Tennis] Black Book 📓.

Dr. Berge explains why this season has been so volatile, connecting the 90% accuracy of her predictive models to the chaos. The data showed the ATP Tour would mirror the WTA’s 2024 disruption, and the US Open draw is proving it, with a “massive” 50% disruption rate already seen in some sections.

This summary meticulously covers every single R1 and R2 match from the WTA draw, including massive upsets like Victoria Mboko (Montreal champ) falling in R1, Madison Keys (Australian Open champ) being stunned by Renata Zarazua in a 3-hour epic 😱, and Elina Svitolina being knocked out by Anna Bondár. Dr. Berge also highlights the “blockbuster” R3 matchup set between Elena Rybakina and Emma Raducanu!

On the ATP side, the disruption is just as stark. Dr. Berge reviews all the R1 and R2 results, including the shocking R1 exit of (5) Daniil Medvedev at the hands of Benjamin Bonzi in five sets 🤯 and (10) Karen Khachanov falling to Kamil Majchrzak in a 4.5-hour, five-set war. The episode also details Holger Rune’s R2 loss to Jan-Lennard Struff,linking his inconsistency directly to the core principles of the 8 Keys 🔑 framework.

Finally, Dr. Berge conducts a “live predictive analytics” session, filling out the R3 draw and predicting the Round of 16 lineup for both tours, highlighting which sections are “open” and which are stacked with Grand Slam champions!

🎙️ Detailed Episode Breakdown

[00:00:00] Welcome & The Predictive Analytics Update!

Dr. Ashley M. Berge welcomes listeners to this special US Open edition! 🗽 After a 72-hour break since the last episode, all R1 and R2 matches are complete.

• The Data is Unfolding 📊 [00:01:18.522]: Dr. Berge is excited! Why? Because “90% of the predictive analytics in your Black Book [have unraveled]”. She connects this directly to her core research.
• The “2% Regression” 📉 [00:02:02.183]: As detailed in My [Tennis] Black Book, the data showed the WTA tour experienced a massive disruption last season (the “2% regression” rate for top players enlarged). The analytics predicted the ATP tour would mirror this this season.
• It’s Happening NOW! [00:02:19.202]: The US Open draw is already showing a “massive” 50% disruption rate. Seeds are falling, and the chaos is aligning perfectly with the models.
• Today’s Mission ✍️ [00:02:42.083]: No rankings today (they update after the Slam). This episode is 100% dedicated to reviewing all R1 & R2 results and then predicting the R3 winners to map out the Round of 16! Dr. Berge is doing this live, with pen and paper, based on the analytics.

[00:04:08] 🗽 WTA US Open: R1 & R2 Results Review

Dr. Berge starts with the WTA tour, going section by section to analyze the carnage.

Section 1: Sabalenka’s Quarter [00:04:14.802]

• R1: (1) Aryna Sabalenka def. Vassar.
• R1: Polina Kudermetova def. (WC) Perez Diaz (ret.).
• R1: Elsa Jacquemot upsets Marie Bouzková! Dr. Berge notes Bouzková had a great run (Prague title) but peaked too soon.
• R1: (27) Leylah Fernandez def. Marino.
• R1: (19) Elise Mertens def. Arango.
• R1 Upset: Emiliana Arango (transc. error ‘Iala’) stuns (14) Clara Tauson 6-3, 2-6, 7-6 (13-11)! 🤯 An epic tiebreak! Dr. Berge notes this is a huge win for Arango, but Tauson was a favorite to go deep.
• R1 Upset: Tian stuns (24) Veronika Kudermetova! Dr. Berge calls this “one of the biggest upsets” so far, opening the draw for Raducanu.
• R1: (9) Elena Rybakina def. Parrizas-Diaz; Raducanu def. Shibahara.
• R2 Results:
  • (1) Sabalenka def. P. Kudermetova (but was pushed! 7-6, 6-3).
  • (27) Fernandez def. Jacquemot (in 3 sets).
  • (19) Mertens def. Sun.
  • Busca def. Arango (‘Iala’) 6-4, 6-3. The peak for Arango was the Tauson win, and she couldn’t maintain it.
  • (9) Rybakina def. Valentova (but was pushed! 7-6(7), 6-3).
  • Emma Raducanu def. Tian 6-2, 6-1. Very clean, very impressive.
  • (32) Kessler def. Lynette.
  • (11) Vondroušová def. Sigimantova.

Section 2: Pegula’s Quarter [00:09:06.842]

• R1: (7) Jasmine Paolini def. Aiava (Q) (tough R1!).
• R1: (4) Jessica Pegula (defending finalist) def. Sherif.
• R1: (17) Azarenka def. Ann Li.
• R1: Priscilla Hon (Q) stuns (17) Liudmila Samsonova! 🇦🇺 “Huge” win for the Aussie qualifier!.
• R1: Ann Li def. Bencic. This is a massive upset.
• R2 Results:
  • (4) Pegula def. Blinkova 6-1, 6-3. Clean.
  • (17) Azarenka def. Pavlyuchenkova 6-3, 6-3.
  • Ann Li def. Hon (Q) 7-5, 6-3. The dream run ends for Hon, but Li backs up her Bencik win.
  • (11) Vondroušová def. (32) Kessler 6-2, 6-3.
  • (7) Paolini def. Djokovic 6-3, 7-6.

Section 3: Gauff’s Quarter [00:10:57.402]

• R1 Upset: Renata Zarazua stuns (6) Madison Keys (AO Champ)! 😱 6-7, 7-6, 7-5. A 3-hour epic! This “huge opening” blows this section apart.
• R1: Diane Parry def. (WC) Kvitova (Kvitova’s last match 😢).
• R1: (28) Marta Kostyuk def. Bolta.
• R1: (11) Karolína Muchová def. (WC) Venus Williams.
• R1: (15) Kasatkina def. Rus.
• R1: (23) Naomi Osaka def. Baptiste.
• R1: (3) Coco Gauff survives Ajla Tomljanović in a 3-hour, 3-set war. A very tough R1!.
• R2 Results:
  • Diane Parry def. Zarazua (in 3 sets).
  • (28) Kostyuk def. Sonmez.
  • (11) Muchová def. (WC) Seidel.
  • (15) Kasatkina def. Rakimova.
  • (23) Osaka def. Baptiste 6-3, 6-1. Osaka is rolling!
  • (3) Gauff def. Frech 6-3, 6-1. A much cleaner match.

Section 4: Świątek’s Quarter [00:16:19.402]

• R1: (5) Mira Andreeva def. Parks 6-0, 6-1. Dominant.
• R1 Upset: Anna Bondár stuns (10) Elina Svitolina 6-2, 6-4! 💥 Another seed gone. Dr. Berge notes Svitolina looked “the healthiest of any player on tour,” making this a huge shock.
• R1 Upset: Laura Siegemund stuns (20) Diana Shnaider! Siegemund, the veteran, gets it done in 3 sets.
• R1: (25) Kalinskaya def. Avagyan.
• R1: (2) Iga Świątek def. Arango.
• R2 Results:
  • (5) Andreeva def. Potapova 6-1, 6-3.
  • (2) Iga Świątek def. Lamens (but got a scare! 6-1, 4-6, 6-4!).
  • (25) Kalinskaya def. Putintseva.
  • (20) Alexandrova def. Sevastova.

[00:34:07] ✍️ WTA Round of 16: Predictions!

Dr. Berge maps out the R3 matches and predicts the Round of 16 lineup!

• (1) Sabalenka vs. (27) Fernandez ➡️ Sabalenka
• (19) Mertens vs. Busca ➡️ Mertens
• (9) Rybakina vs. Raducanu ➡️ 50/50! Dr. Berge won’t call it, this is the blockbuster!
• (11) Vondroušová vs. (7) Paolini ➡️ Paolini (based on Cincy form)
• (4) Pegula vs. (17) Azarenka ➡️ Pegula
• Li vs. Hon (Q) ➡️ Li (Anomoly R16 spot!)
• (12) Navarro vs. (26) Krejčíková ➡️ 50/50! Another “either or” match.
• Townsend vs. (5) Andreeva ➡️ Andreeva
• (28) Kostyuk vs. Parry ➡️ Kostyuk
• (11) Muchová vs. (21) Nosková ➡️ 50/50! (Niskova def. Makova)
• (15) Kasatkina vs. (23) Osaka ➡️ Osaka (Dr. Berge is leaning into the upset!)
• Frech vs. (3) Gauff ➡️ Gauff
• (4) Anisimova vs. (WC) Christian ➡️ Anisimova
• (18) Haddad Maia vs. Sakari ➡️ Haddad Maia (Live match, she’s up 5-2 in 2nd)
• (20) Alexandrova vs. Siegemund ➡️ Alexandrova
• (25) Kalinskaya vs. (2) Świątek ➡️ Świątek (but she has the toughest R16 path!)

[00:41:48] 🗽 ATP US Open: R1 & R2 Results Review

The men’s draw is even more chaotic, aligning perfectly with the Black Book analytics!

Section 1: Sinner’s Quarter [00:42:50.062]

• R1: (1) Sinner def. Kopriva.
• R1: (WC) Shapovalov def. Fucsovics.
• R1 Upset: (Q) Schoolkate stuns (31) Sonego in a 5-set, 4-hour epic! 10-6 in the fifth!
• R1: (13) Paul def. Mmoh.
• R1: (8) Musetti def. Mpetshi Perricard.
• R1 Upset: (18) Félix Auger-Aliassime stuns (3) Alexander Zverev! 🤯 A 5-set monster! Dr. Berge notes Felix’s game is clicking again.
• R2 Results:
  • (1) Sinner def. (WC) Shapovalov (but was pushed! 7-5 in the 1st).
  • (13) Paul vs. Borges (Live, Paul up 2-0, Borges up a break in 3rd).
  • (8) Musetti def. Bonzi (ret.).
  • UPSET: Riedel (Q) def. Majchrzak (ret.).
  • (9) De Minaur def. Altmaier (ret.).

Section 2: Djokovic’s Quarter [00:36:02.803]

• R1: (4) Novak Djokovic def. Tien 6-1, 7-6, 6-2.
• R1: (30) Norrie def. Korda (ret.).
• R1 Upset: Struff stuns (15) Tiafoe! 💥 TFO is out early!.
• R1: (6) Holger Rune def. Van de Zandschulp.
• R2 Results:
  • (4) Djokovic def. Svajda 6-4, 7-6, 6-2.
  • (30) Norrie def. Comesana.
  • Struff stuns (6) Holger Rune in 5 sets! 🤯 Dr. Berge links this directly to the 8 Keys 🔑: Rune’s inconsistency proves his keys are not “solidified”.
  • (16) Mensik is upset by Blanchet in a 5-set 10-7 tiebreak!.
  • (2) Fritz def. Kym.

Section 3: Shelton’s Quarter

• R1: (7) Shelton def. Bu.
• R1 Upset: Manarino stuns (29) Griekspoor!.
• R1: (22) Lehečka def. Korić.
• R1 Upset: (Q) Bonzi stuns (12) Daniil Medvedev! 🤯
• R2 Results:
  • (5) Shelton def. Manarino 6-2, 6-3.
  • (22) Lehečka def. Etcheverry.
  • (Q) Bonzi def. Giron.
  • Rinderknech stuns (17) Davidovich Fokina in 5 sets!.

Section 4: Alcaraz’s Quarter

• R1: (9) Rublev def. Prizmic.
• R1 Upset: Tien stuns (24) Shapovalov!.
• R1 Upset: (Q) Atmane stuns (15) Cobolli!.
• R1: (2) Alcaraz def. Opelka.
• R2 Results:
  • (9) Rublev def. Tien.
  • (Q) Atmane def. Humbert! The qualifier is flying!.
  • (2) Alcaraz def. Milovic 6-2, 6-4, 6-0.

[00:57:42] ✍️ ATP Round of 16: Predictions!

Dr. Berge maps out the chaotic R3 matches to predict the R16!

• (1) Sinner vs. (13) Paul (assuming Paul wins) ➡️ Sinner
• (8) Musetti vs. Munar ➡️ Musetti
• (18) Auger-Aliassime vs. (7) Rublev ➡️ Rublev (Tough call!)
• Riedel (Q) vs. (9) De Minaur ➡️ De Minaur (Big opening!)
• (4) Djokovic vs. Norrie ➡️ Djokovic
• Struff vs. McCack (transc. error) ➡️ McCack (Machač)
• (22) Lehečka vs. Manarino ➡️ Lehečka (He’s on the radar!)
• Rinderknech vs. (2) Alcaraz ➡️ Alcaraz
• (5) Shelton vs. (22) Lehečka ➡️ Shelton.
• (Q) Bonzi vs. (2) Alcaraz. ➡️ Alcaraz.

[01:02:11] Conclusion

Dr. Berge wraps up this “huge” special edition. The R3 matchups are set, and the analytics are tracking perfectly (80%+ success). She’ll be back in a couple of days to review the R16 and preview the quarterfinals!

“Thank you so much for listening. I am so incredibly grateful. I’m your host, Dr. Ashley Morgan Berge, and this is Beyond Top 10 Tennis.”

Note: you just read an automated summary of episode #176 — if you found this helpful and/or pieces were not as accurate as you’d like, please let us know and be mindful that intermittently these automated summaries will be shared for those of you who seek a quick snapshot of our episodes.

To get your very own Black Book and Work Book, head here and/or here. To learn more about our data, predictive analytics and how to optimise your own performance, head on over to AM8 International. To learn more about AM8 International check out our selection of Books and/or options to join Dr B’s Pack to gain exclusive access to the best in the world. Not quite ready? Head on over to Beyond Top 10 Tennis for free access to 170+ episodes directly from Dr Berge of what it really takes to win multiple Grand Slams to securing that Top 10 tennis ranking with new episodes each week. More? Join Dr Berge’s Newsletter on Substack, come say “hi” on Topicthread, X, Spotify, YouTube or Instagram that may very well include quick snippets you can apply in your game, today, or even consider leaving a review on Amazon or Google.

🗂️ 📍 Live from AM8 International
📚 Featuring: My [Tennis] Work Book 📘 + My [Tennis] Black Book: Federer, Nadal, Serena, Djokovic 🖤
🎧 Available on Spotify, YouTube & all major podcast platforms

🌟 Short Summary

Welcome to a massive US Open Special Edition! 🗽🎾 Dr. Ashley M. Berge comes to you live as Day 1 of the main draw kicks off! This episode is the ultimate “source of truth,” recapping the final tune-up tournaments and diving deep into the rankings and draws for the last Grand Slam of the year.

First, Dr. Berge wraps up the Cincinnati 1000 event, congratulating Iga Świątek 🏆 for her 7-5, 6-4 final victory over Jasmine Paolini and Carlos Alcaraz 🏆, who claimed the men’s title after an unfortunate retirement from Jannik Sinner. She also covers the final lead-up events, including Sorana Cîrstea’s 250 title in Cleveland and Diana Shnaider’s 500-level triumph in Monterrey.

The core of the episode is a meticulous “double rankings analysis” 📈📈. Dr. Berge first reviews the pre-Cincinnati rankings (week of Aug 11) and then unveils the NEW live rankings (week of Aug 18), showing the exact impact of the 1000-level event. Key moves include Iga Świątek reclaiming World #2, Amanda Anisimova surging +5 spots to World #4, Novak Djokovic jumping to World #4, Victoria Mboko skyrocketing +61 spots to World #24, and Naomi Osakaleaping +24 spots to World #25!

Finally, Dr. Berge provides a “source of truth” US Open Draw Breakdown, analyzing the paths for all 32 seeds, identifying blockbuster R1s like Tomljanović vs. Gauff and Muchová vs. Venus Williams, and highlighting the brutalpotential R3 clash between Rybakina and Raducanu.

🎙️ Detailed Episode Breakdown

[00:00:00] Welcome & Special Edition Intro

Dr. Ashley M. Berge kicks off the show, bypassing the usual preamble to dive straight into the action! ⚡️ This is a special overlap episode, wrapping up the pre-Slam tournaments just as Day 1 of the US Open begins.

• Book Check-In 📚: For followers of My [Tennis] Black Book, this week marks Week 4 of Block 8. Dr. Berge can’t believe how fast the season has flown! She reminds listeners that the Work Book 📘 is the essential daily tool for tracking your game, identifying strengths, weaknesses, and objectives. This is the exact process she uses with athletes, and it’s how you apply the principles from her 13 non-fiction books (like the What is Your Game Missing? series 🤔) to your game.
• Today’s Mission 🗺️:
  1. Wrap up the Cincinnati 1000 finals.
  2. Review the smaller tune-up events (Cleveland & Monterrey).
  3. Conduct a “double rankings analysis”: Pre-Cincy & Post-Cincy.
  4. Break down the US Open main draw, seeds, and key matchups!

[00:02:41] Final Tune-Up Tournament Results

Dr. Berge quickly recaps the finals of all the lead-up tournaments.

• Cincinnati 1000 (WTA) [00:02:51.580]: Iga Świątek def. Jasmine Paolini 7-5, 6-4! 🏆 A huge win for Iga, who reclaims the World #2 spot from Coco Gauff. Dr. Berge is excited to see the rankings align with her data trajectories.
• Cincinnati 1000 (ATP) [00:02:46.540]: Carlos Alcaraz def. Jannik Sinner 5-0, ret. 🏆 Sinner was unwell and had to retire.
• Cleveland 250 (WTA) [00:03:30.140]:
  • Final: Sorana Cîrstea def. Ann Li 6-2, 6-4.
  • Key upsets: (1) Samsonova lost to Cîrstea in the QF, and (2) Wang lost to Li in the SF.
• Monterrey 500 (WTA) [00:10:06.800]:
  • Final: (3) Diana Shnaider def. (2) Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.
  • Dr. Berge’s Analysis: A great win for Shnaider, who has recently teamed up with coach Sasha Bajan. Dr. Berge thinks this is a “really good pairing”.
  • Seed Carnage! 💥 (1) Navarro lost R2, (4) Haddad Maia lost R2, (7) Fernandez lost R2.
• Winston-Salem 250 (ATP) [00:25:01.400]:
  • Final: Márton Fucsovics def. Botic van de Zandschulp 6-3, 7-6.
  • Seed Carnage! 💥 (1) Tsitsipas was stunned in R2 by Bu! (2) Griekspoor also fell in R2. Dr. Berge notes something is “not quite right” with Tsitsipas’s game, linking it to a breakdown in the 8 Keys 🔑. This is a prime example of what’s explored in The Secrets to Optimal Coaching Success.

[00:40:06] 📊 WTA Rankings Deep Dive (Pre- & Post-Cincinnati)

Dr. Berge breaks down the rankings from August 11 (pre-Cincy) and the new rankings from August 18 (post-Cincy) to show the exact impact of the 1000-level events.

WTA Rankings (as of Aug 11, 2025):

• (1) Sabalenka, (2) Gauff, (3) Świątek, (4) Pegula, (5) Andreeva, (6) Keys, (7) Zheng, (8) Paolini, (9) Anisimova, (10) Rybakina.
• (11) Navarro, (12) Badosa, (13) Svitolina, (14) Muchová, (15) Tauson, (16) Alexandrova, (17) Kasatkina, (18) Haddad Maia, (19) Bencic, (20) Shnaider.
• Movers: Mboko (+61 to 24!), Osaka (+24 to 25!).

NEW WTA Rankings (as of Aug 18, 2025):

• Big Risers ⬆️:
  • Victoria Mboko: Holds steady at #23 (Career High!).
  • Naomi Osaka: Up +1 to #24 (Career High post-maternity!).
  • Barbora Krejčíková: +19 to #61!.
  • Markéta Vondroušová: +24 to #36!.
• Big Fallers ⬇️:
  • Emma Navarro: -7 to #18! (A tough hit after a R2 loss).
  • Paula Badosa: -4 to #16.
• Top 10 Analysis 💥:
  • (1) Aryna Sabalenka (Steady, but her lead narrows).
  • (2) Iga Świątek (+1) (Title win 🏆 puts her back at #2!).
  • (3) Coco Gauff (-1) (Drops to #3).
  • (4) Amanda Anisimova (+5) 🚀 (Jumps into the Top 4!)
  • (5) Jessica Pegula (-1) (Slips one spot).
  • (6) Madison Keys (Steady).
  • (7) Zheng Qinwen (Steady).
  • (8) Jasmine Paolini (+1) (Finalist run boosts her).
  • (9) Mira Andreeva (-1) (Slips one spot).
  • (10) Elena Rybakina (Steady).
• Race for #1 🏁: Dr. Berge notes that while Sabalenka is #1, she has a ton of points to defend from her strong 2024 finish. Świątek, who had time off, has fewer points to defend. The race is on!

[00:41:40] 🗽 WTA US Open Draw Preview! 🗽

Dr. Berge dives into the draw, highlighting the blockbuster matchups and potential paths.

• Top Quarter (Sabalenka’s):
  • (1) Sabalenka has a clean path to R3, where she’ll likely face (27) Fernandez.
  • MATCH OF THE DRAW! 🍿 (9) Rybakina vs. Emma Raducanu in ROUND 1! 😱 Dr. Berge is 50/50 on this, as both are playing incredibly well. The winner likely faces (17) Navarro in R3. Correction: The transcript says Navarro plays (32) Yastremska, but R1 is vs. Wang.
• Second Quarter (Anisimova’s):
  • (4) Anisimova has a smooth-looking draw.
  • (18) Haddad Maia faces (WC) Kartel.
  • (16) Svitolina vs. (WC) Bondár.
  • Potential R16: (4) Anisimova vs. (16) Svitolina!
• Third Quarter (Gauff’s):
  • (6) Keys (AUS Open Champ) has a good draw.
  • R1 to Watch: (11) Muchová vs. (WC) Venus Williams! 🤩.
  • (15) Kasatkina vs. Rus.
  • (23) Osaka vs. Baptiste. Potential R3: Osaka vs. Kasatkina!.
  • (3) Gauff vs. Tomljanović! Dr. Berge notes this is tough for Coco, as Tomljanović is the player who beat Serena in her final match.
• Bottom Quarter (Świątek’s):
  • (7) Paolini vs. Aiava (Q).
  • (26) Krejčíková vs. (WC) Victoria Mboko! A brutal R1 for the new Montreal champ!.
  • (20) Alexandrova vs. Sevastova.
  • (2) Iga Świątek vs. Arango.
  • Dr. Berge’s Analysis: This quarter is STACKED! 🤯 Świątek has a potential R3 vs. (25) Kalinskaya(who pushed her in Cincy), R16 vs. (20) Alexandrova, and a QF vs. (4) Anisimova (a Wimbledon final rematch!).

[00:55:03] 📊 ATP Rankings Deep Dive (Pre- & Post-Cincinnati)

ATP Rankings (as of Aug 11, 2025):

• (1) Sinner, (2) Alcaraz, (3) Zverev, (4) Fritz, (5) Draper, (6) Djokovic, (7) Shelton, (8) De Minaur, (9) Musetti, (10) Khachanov.

NEW ATP Rankings (as of Aug 18, 2025):

• Big Risers ⬆️:
  • Térence Atmane (Q): +67 spots to #69! (Cincy SF).
  • Sebastian Korda: +41 to #86! (Finally healthy and climbing).
  • Jenson Brooksby: +10 to #91.
• Big Fallers ⬇️:
  • Alexei Popyrin: -18 to #37! (Failing to defend his Montreal title is a “big hit”).
• Top 10 Analysis 💥:
  • (1) Jannik Sinner (Steady, but lead is vanishing!).
  • (2) Carlos Alcaraz (Cincy title 🏆 closes the gap to <1000 points).
  • (3) Alexander Zverev (Steady).
  • (4) Novak Djokovic (+3) 🚀 (Jumps Draper, Fritz, Shelton!).
  • (5) Taylor Fritz (-1).
  • (6) Ben Shelton (+1).
  • (7) Jack Draper (-2) (Loses Montreal SF points).
  • (8) Alex de Minaur (Steady).
  • (9) Lorenzo Musetti (Steady).
  • (10) Karen Khachanov (Steady).
• The Race for #1 🏎️: Sinner is defending 2000 points as US Open champ. Alcaraz is defending almost nothing(R2 loss last year). Dr. Berge states Alcaraz is now the favorite to reclaim the #1 ranking after the US Open.

[00:55:27] 🗽 ATP US Open Draw Preview! 🗽

• Top Quarter (Sinner’s):
  • (1) Sinner vs. Kopriva.
  • BRUTAL R2 🚨: (1) Sinner vs. (defending Montreal champ) Alexei Popyrin!
  • (13) Paul vs. (WC) Mmoh.
  • (8) Musetti vs. Mpetshi Perricard.
• Second Quarter (Zverev’s):
  • (3) Zverev vs. Tabilo.
  • (6) Draper vs. Gomez. Dr. Berge questions if he’s healthy after his R1 retirement in Cincy.
  • (10) Khachanov vs. (WC) Basavareddy.
  • (7) De Minaur vs. O’Connell.
• Third Quarter (Fritz’s):
  • (5) Fritz vs. (Q) Narvaez.
  • (11) Ruud vs. Ofner.
  • R1 REMATCH 🍿: (12) Medvedev vs. Bonzi! (Bonzi won at Wimbledon!).
  • (4) Shelton (Cincy Champ) vs. Bu.
• Bottom Quarter (Alcaraz’s):
  • (9) Rublev vs. (WC) Tien.
  • (16) Mensik vs. Jarry.
  • (10) Tiafoe vs. Nishioka.
  • (6) Rune vs. Van de Zandschulp.
  • (2) Alcaraz vs. Opelka! A “not easy” R1 against a massive server.

[01:06:04] Conclusion

Dr. Berge wraps up this huge preview! The draws are set, the data is tracking, and the last Grand Slam of 2025 is here! She’ll be back in a few days with a special edition to cover all the R1 and R2 action.

“Thank you so much for listening. I am so incredibly grateful. I’m your host, Dr. Ashley Morgan Berge, and this is Beyond Top 10 Tennis.”

Note: you just read an automated summary of episode #175 — if you found this helpful and/or pieces were not as accurate as you’d like, please let us know and be mindful that intermittently these automated summaries will be shared for those of you who seek a quick snapshot of our episodes.

To get your very own Black Book and Work Book, head here and/or here. To learn more about our data, predictive analytics and how to optimise your own performance, head on over to AM8 International. To learn more about AM8 International check out our selection of Books and/or options to join Dr B’s Pack to gain exclusive access to the best in the world. Not quite ready? Head on over to Beyond Top 10 Tennis for free access to 170+ episodes directly from Dr Berge of what it really takes to win multiple Grand Slams to securing that Top 10 tennis ranking with new episodes each week. More? Join Dr Berge’s Newsletter on Substack, come say “hi” on Topicthread, X, Spotify, YouTube or Instagram that may very well include quick snippets you can apply in your game, today, or even consider leaving a review on Amazon or Google.